Importance of Same Sex Marriage Issue

Nov 29, 2010

Q. Compared to other issues that are often raised in politics – like the economy, healthcare, immigration, etc –  how important to you personally is the issue of whether people of the same sex should be allowed to marry?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total important 37% 37% 32% 56%
Total not important 60% 60% 66% 42%
Very important 15% 16% 13% 24%
Quite important 22% 21% 19% 32%
Not so important 31% 33% 30% 23%
Not at all important 29% 27% 36% 19%
Don’t know 4% 3% 1% 2%

37% believe the same sex marriage is an important issue and 60% think it is not important. A majority of Greens voters (56%) think it is important.

41% of those who support same sex marriage think the issue is important and 36% of those opposed think it important.

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Same Sex Marriage – Party Policies

Nov 29, 2010

Q. From what you understand which party has the policy on same sex marriage which is closest to your own view of the issue?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Labor Party 13% 29% 2% 1%
Liberal Party 21% 5% 44% 3%
Greens 20% 19% 13% 71%
Don’t know 46% 47% 41% 24%

21% prefer the Liberal Party policy on same sex marriage, 20% prefer the Greens and 13% Labor.

Opinions generally follow party preference although only 29% of Labor voters prefer the Labor policy and 19% prefer the Greens.

Those with no religion are more likely to prefer the Greens policy (29%) while 30% of Anglicans and 32% of other Christians prefer the Liberal policy.

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Importance of NBN

Nov 29, 2010

Q. The Federal Government plans to build a National Broadband Network over the next few years. How important do you think it is for Australia to build a National Broadband Network?

Total

Nov 10

Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Nov 09
Total important 69% 87% 54% 84% 65%
Total not important 25% 9% 42% 12% 26%
Very Important 35% 55% 17% 55% 30%
Quite Important 34% 32% 37% 29% 35%
Not so important 14% 6% 21% 10% 20%
Not at all important 11% 3% 21% 2% 6%
Don’t know 6% 4% 4% 3% 8%

69% think that it is important for Australia to build a National Broadband Network and 25% think it is not important. This represents an increase in support (net +5%) for the NBN since this question was last asked in November 2009.

Labor (87%) and Greens voters (84%) and more likely to think the NBN is important. A majority of Liberal/National voters (54%) think it is important although a sizable minority (42%) think it is not important.

A majority of all age groups believe the NBN is important, although support tends to decrease with increasing age – of those aged 65+, 54% think it is important and 45% not important.

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Benefit of NBN

Nov 29, 2010

Q. Thinking about the Government’s plan to build a national broadband network, how much benefit will a national broadband network be to-

Total benefit Great

benefit

Some benefit Little benefit Don’t know Total benefit

April 09

Australian businesses 84% 55% 29% 8% 8% 80%
Schools 78% 48% 30% 14% 8% na
The general public overall 78% 44% 34% 15% 8% 76%
Children 72% 39% 33% 19% 9% na
The Australian economy 71% 39% 32% 18% 11% 65%
You personally 65% 33% 32% 27% 8% 66%
The economy of your local community 65% 32% 33% 24% 12% na

The NBN is thought to be of most benefit to Australian business (84%), schools (78%) and the general public overall (78%). Since this question was last asked in April 2009, perceptions of benefit have increased for Australian business (+4%) and the Australian economy (+6%).

65% think they will personally benefit from the NBN. Those most likely to think they will benefit personally are aged under 35 (74%) Labor voters (83%), Greens voters (80%) and full-time workers (71%).

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Christmas Spending

Nov 29, 2010

Q. And now about Christmas spending – compared to last year, do you expect to be spending more on gifts at Christmas, less or much the same?

Dec 08 Dec 09 Nov 10
Will spend more 3% 11% 10%
Will be spending less 38% 38% 38%
Spend much the same 55% 47% 48%
Don’t know 5% 4% 5%

Views about spending on gifts at Christmas remain much the same as last year. 10% say they will spend more, 38% spend less and 48% much the same.

16% of those aged under 35 say they will spend more, 46% of those aged 35-44 will spend less and 59% of those aged 55+ will spend much the same. There is no significant relationship between changes in spending and income.

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Julia, Blokes and the Bradley Effect

Nov 23, 2010

First Published on The Drum 23/11/2010

As if dealing with four independent blokes, a Green bloke and a blokey bloke in charge of the Opposition is not enough, now Julia Gillard is developing a problem with blokes outside the Parliament.

Having politely indicated that they were happy with a female Prime Minister in the lead-up to the federal election, this week’s Essential Report picks up sharp moves in the attitudes of the brotherhood.

In the absence of any compelling policy development to explain the surge, we are left with the Bradley Effect, the theory created to explain why an African-American candidate lost the 1982 race for Governor of California despite having a massive lead in the polls.

The details of the Bradley Effect later, first some numbers from this week’s Essential Report.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 22, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,869

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 39% 41% 42% 42% 42%
National 2% 3% 4% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 41% 44% 46% 45% 45%
Labor 40% 41% 39% 39% 38%
Greens 10% 8% 8% 10% 10%
Other/Independent 9% 7% 7% 7% 8%
2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

This week
Total Lib/Nat 48% 50% 51% 51% 51%
Labor 52% 50% 49% 49% 49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Nov 22, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
31 May 5 Jul 19 Jul 26 Jul 2 Aug 9 Aug 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct 22 Nov
Total approve 41% 48% 52% 49% 46% 45% 46% 45% 45% 43%
Total disapprove 47% 27% 30% 33% 38% 40% 40% 37% 37% 38%
Strongly approve 7% 14% 11% 12% 10% 13% 13% 12% 10% 7%
Approve 34% 34% 41% 37% 36% 32% 33% 33% 36% 36%
Disapprove 25% 13% 17% 19% 23% 24% 24% 21% 20% 23%
Strongly disapprove 22% 14% 13% 14% 15% 16% 16% 16% 17% 15%
Don’t know 12% 26% 18% 17% 15% 15% 13% 19% 18% 18%

43% (down 2%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 38% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +8 to +5.

87% of Labor voters approve and 4% disapprove.

By gender – men 39% approve/44% disapprove, women 47% approve/33% disapprove. Men have shifted from a net rating of  +4 to -5 while women have changed from +10 to +14.

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