Peace in the Middle East

Apr 18, 2011

Q. What, in your view, is the single biggest obstacle to peace in the Middle East?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Unwillingness of Israelis/ Palestinians to compromise 33% 38% 31% 37%
The Israeli (housing) settlements in areas which Palestinians claim for an independent Palestine 6% 6% 7% 14%
Israel’s oppression of Palestinians 8% 8% 8% 15%
Palestinian terror attacks on Israelis 5% 3% 7% 5%
Infighting between the various Palestinian organisations (e.g. Hamas and Fatah) 6% 5% 7% 4%
Inaction by the United Nations 3% 4% 3% 2%
Opposition to Israel from other Middle Eastern countries 8% 7% 9%
Don’t know 31% 29% 28% 23%

One third (33%) of respondents think that the unwillingness of Israelis and Palestinians to compromise is the single biggest obstacle to peace in the Middle East and a further one third (31%) do not know. The remaining 36% selected a range of reasons including Israel’s oppression of Palestinians (8%) and opposition to Israel from other Middle Eastern countries (8%).

There were few substantial differences across voter groups.

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Israel-Palestine Conflict

Apr 18, 2011

Q. To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Total agree Total disagree Total Neither/ Don’t know Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know
Australia should support the Israelis rather than Palestinians 14% 23% 62% 6% 8% 33% 12% 11% 29%
Being critical of Israel makes a person anti- Semitic 10% 46% 45% 4% 6% 23% 24% 22% 22%
The Palestine- Israel conflict fuels anti- Semitism in Australia 27% 24% 49% 5% 22% 24% 17% 7% 25%
The Palestine- Israel conflict fuels anti-Muslim feelings in Australia 31% 21% 48% 7% 24% 24% 16% 5% 24%

The most common answers to these statements on the Israel/Palestine conflict were ”neither agree nor disagree” and “don’t know”. These results indicate both a low level of awareness/interest and an inclination not to take a position one way or the other. The finding that only 14% agree that Australia should support the Israelis rather than Palestinians underlines this reluctance to take sides on this issue.

Views on most statements were split – except for 46% disagreement that “Being critical of Israel makes a person anti-Semitic”.

Respondents were slightly more likely to think the Israel/Palestine conflict fuels anti-Muslim feeling that anti-Semitism.

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Opinion of Carbon Pricing Proposal

Apr 18, 2011

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

7 March 14 March 28 March Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 35% 38% 34% 39% 63% 21% 75%
Total oppose 48% 49% 51% 49% 25% 72% 17%
Strongly support 9% 12% 12% 13% 25% 4% 37%
Support 26% 26% 22% 26% 38% 17% 38%
Oppose 19% 17% 19% 15% 10% 18% 10%
Strongly oppose 29% 32% 32% 34% 15% 54% 7%
Don’t know 18% 13% 15% 12% 12% 7% 8%

Support for the Government’s carbon pricing scheme has recovered to similar levels recorded in mid-March.

Since this question was asked 3 weeks ago, support has increased to 39% (+5%) and opposition dropped to 49% (-2%).

Strongest support was shown by those aged under 35 (42%) and those on incomes over $1,600 pw (46%).

Those most strongly opposed were aged 55+ (58%).

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Opinion of Carbon Pricing Proposal with Compensation

Apr 18, 2011

Q. Would you support or oppose this carbon pricing scheme if the money paid by big polluting industries was used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices?

14 March Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 54% 51% 78% 34% 80%
Total oppose 30% 33% 11% 51% 7%
Strongly support 17% 17% 30% 8% 35%
Support 37% 34% 43% 25% 44%
Oppose 14% 12% 7% 18% 8%
Strongly oppose 16% 21% 6% 37% 5%
Don’t know 17% 16% 14% 13% 8%

With compensation for low and middle income earners and small businesses, support for the Government’s carbon pricing scheme increased to 51% and opposition dropped to 33%. This is a slight fall in support since this question was last asked in mid-March.

With compensation, support among Labor voters increases 15% to 78% and for Liberal/National voters increases 13% to 34%.

Support among men increased from 39% to 47% and for women increases from 38% to 55%.

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Opinion of NBN

Apr 18, 2011

Q. From what you’ve heard, do you favour or oppose the planned national broadband network (NBN)?

27 Sep 2010 14 Feb 2011 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total favour 56% 48% 54% 76% 36% 81%
Total oppose 18% 31% 28% 8% 49% 8%
Strongly favour 27% 19% 22% 40% 8% 43%
Favour 29% 29% 32% 36% 28% 38%
Oppose 12% 16% 13% 6% 19% 3%
Strongly oppose 6% 15% 15% 2% 30% 5%
Don’t know 26% 22% 18% 15% 14% 12%

Support for the NBN has increased a little since this question was last asked in February.

54% (+6%) favour the NBN and 28% (-3%) oppose it. There is overwhelming majority support from Labor and Greens voters but Liberal/National voters were split 36% favour and 49% oppose.

By age group, those aged under 35 were 55% favour/26% oppose and those aged 55+ were 49% favour/34% oppose.

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Green-baiting and the art of product differentiation

Apr 12, 2011

First published on The Drum: 12/04/2011

The Prime Minister has been dedicating a significant slice of stump time in recent weeks to explaining the differences between the ALP and the Greens, how one emerges from real-world struggles and the other is a group of out-of-touch extremists.

A similar debate has been being waged within the Greens following their underwhelming NSW state election performance, where a local candidate’s intervention in the Middle East peace provided the platform to portray the party as a collective of bat-faced ideologues.

But as the debate about the Greens’ orientation gains pertinence as they move to assume the balance of power in the Senate a more basic fact is being missed: Labor voters and Green voters agree on just about everything.

A review of findings to Essential Research questions over the past few months finds that on nearly every big debate the similarities between Greens voters and Labor voters far outweigh their differences.

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Opinion of the Greens

Apr 11, 2011

Do you agree or disagree that – the Greens are an extreme political party that does not share the values of average Australians? (Question commissioned by Network Ten)

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Men Women Age

18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged 55+
Total agree 52% 44% 74% 7% 60% 44% 41% 51% 65%
Total disagree 30% 41% 14% 87% 30% 30% 34% 31% 24%
Strongly agree 23% 12% 39% 29% 17% 16% 21% 34%
Agree 29% 32% 35% 7% 31% 27% 25% 31% 31%
Disagree 21% 32% 13% 29% 22% 20% 21% 23% 18%
Strongly disagree 9% 7% 1% 58% 8% 10% 13% 8% 6%
Don’t know 18% 17% 12% 7% 9% 27% 25% 18% 11%

Just over half the respondents (52%) agreed that the Greens are an extreme political party that does not share the values of average Australians and 30% disagree.

Those most likely to agree were Liberal/National voters (74%), men (60%) and those aged 65+ (65%). Labor voters were split with 44% agree and 41% disagree.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Apr 11, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size =1,925

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 45% 43% 43% 43%
National 2% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 47% 46% 46% 46%
Labor 38.0 35% 37% 36% 35%
Greens 11.8 10% 10% 10% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6 8% 7% 8% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 52% 53% 53%
Labor 50.1% 46% 48% 47% 47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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