Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 10, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1909  respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 46% 46% 45% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 49% 48% 48%
Labor 38.0% 32% 32% 33% 33%
Greens 11.8% 10% 12% 11% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 10% 8% 9% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 56% 55% 55%
Labor 50.1% 44% 44% 45% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Performance of the Independents

Oct 10, 2011

Q. Regardless of how you vote in federal elections, how would you rate the performance of the following Independent MPs in federal parliament?

Total Good Total Bad Very Good Good Bad Very Bad Don’t know
Rob Oakeshott 23% 34% 3% 20% 16% 18% 42%
Tony Windsor 23% 32% 4% 19% 18% 14% 44%
Andrew Wilkie 24% 34% 3% 21% 16% 18% 42%
Bob Katter 27% 36% 6% 21% 19% 17% 37%

Respondents struggle to rate the performance of the Independents, with the most common response being ‘don’t know’.  However, in the case of Bob Katter, respondents are more likely to have a view, with the ‘don’t knows’ dropping 5 points from about 42% to 37% in Katter’s case.

The performance of Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie are rated as more or less the same with about 23% of respondents regarding their performance as good and 33% regarding it as bad. Bob Katter came out on top by a fraction, with 27% rating his performance as good.

However, in all instances, more respondents rate the performance of the Independents as bad, with Katter also earning the most criticism (36% bad).

Ratings do not vary greatly by state or territory, save that respondents in Queensland are significantly more likely to rate the performance of Bob Katter as good (38% total good). Respondents in NSW are somewhat more likely to rate the performance of Tony Windsor as good (27% total good).

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Independents and Greens holding Balance of Power

Oct 10, 2011

Q. Do you think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good or bad for Australia?

7 Mar 11 6 Jun 2011 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good 27% 28% 22% 32% 9% 72%
Total bad 41% 39% 50% 30% 76% 7%
Very good 7% 9% 5% 8% 1% 30%
Good 20% 19% 17% 24% 8% 42%
Neither good nor bad 33% 33% 28% 38% 15% 21%
Bad 22% 21% 23% 22% 27% 5%
Very bad 19% 18% 27% 8% 49% 2%

The majority of respondents seem to regard the independents and the Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament as bad for Australia (50% bad), whilst 22% regard it is good for the country.

Enthusiasm for the independents and the Greens in federal Parliament fell 6 points since last polled in June 2011, from 28% to 22% of respondents regarding it as good for the country.

At the same time, disdain for the situation has risen considerably since June 2011: from 39% to 50% this time around.

Labor voters are almost equally split on the issue of the independents and Greens holding the balance of power, with 32% regarding it to be a good thing, and 30% viewing it as bad.

Lib/Nat voters are the most likely to regard the situation as bad (76%), whereas Greens voters are by far the most likely to regard it as good (72%).

Respondents aged 18-24 (38%) and 25-34 (33%) were significantly more likely to regard the situation as good.

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Pokies Legislation

Oct 10, 2011

Q. The Federal Government has proposed gambling reforms which include “pre-commitment” technology that will require pokies players to have a card registered to their name and pre-programmed to prevent them losing more than a set amount in a 24-hour period. Do you support or oppose this measure?

18 Apr 2011 12 Sept 2011 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 65% 67% 61% 73% 52% 82%
Total oppose 21% 25% 30% 21% 41% 10%
Strongly support 32% 34% 29% 38% 20% 53%
Support 33% 33% 32% 35% 32% 29%
Oppose 12% 13% 15% 13% 20% 5%
Strongly oppose 9% 12% 15% 8% 21% 5%
Don’t know 13% 9% 9% 6% 7% 8%

The majority of respondents support the proposed gambling reforms to include pre-commitment technology on pokies machines around Australia.

However, support for the reform has fallen 6 points to 61% this week, with opposition climbing from 25% to 30% at the same time.

Greens voters are the most likely to support the reform (82%) followed by Labor voters (73%).    Whilst Coalition voters were the least likely to do so, the majority of them nonetheless support the reforms (52%).

Looking at the responses by age, respondents aged 18-24 are the most likely to support the reforms (74%) whilst those aged 55-64 are the most likely to oppose them (42%).

Looking are responses by state and territory, respondents in NSW are the most likely to oppose the reforms, with 37% stating they are either strongly opposed or opposed to the proposed legislation.

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Income of Football clubs in Australia

Oct 10, 2011

Q. Football clubs in Australia get their income in a variety of ways.  For each of the following, please indicate if you think it is good or bad source of income for football clubs?

Total Good Total Bad Very Good Good Bad Very Bad Don’t know
Merchandise sales 91% 4% 45% 46% 3% 1% 6%
Corporate sponsorship 90% 3% 45% 45% 2% 1% 6%
Raffles, auctions, competitions 89% 4% 38% 51% 3% 1% 6%
TV broadcasting revenue 87% 5% 37% 50% 4% 1% 8%
Philanthropic donations 76% 8% 29% 47% 6% 2% 16%
Property investment 76% 11% 24% 52% 9% 2% 13%
Poker machines in clubs 33% 57% 7% 26% 28% 29% 10%

Merchandise sales (91%), corporate sponsorship (90%), raffles etc (89%) and TV broadcasting revenue (87%) are regarded to be the better sources of income for football clubs in Australia.

By a difference of 11 points, philanthropic donations and property investment are also regarded as good sources of income by the vast majority of respondents (76%).

Forty three (43) points behind those sources of income are poker machines in clubs, making them the least well regarded source of income for football clubs by a large margin.  Whilst only 33% of respondents regard them as a good source of income, 57% see them as a bad source of income.

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Social Cost of Gambling

Oct 10, 2011

Q .From what you have read or heard, please select the sum of money from the list below that you think reflects the social cost of problem gamblers in Australia each year?

Total Support Pokies Reform * Oppose Pokies Reform
$10 million 7% 7% 9%
$100 million 19% 19% 22%
$1 billion 18% 20% 13%
$5 billion 14% 18% 9%
$10 billion 8% 11% 5%
Don’t know 33% 25% 42%
*Aggregate figures have been used for Support/Oppose pokies legislation by combining strongly support with support and strongly oppose with oppose.

The most common response amongst respondents was ‘don’t’ know’ (33%).   Out of the figures from which respondents could choose, the most common response was $100 million (19%) and $1 billion (18%).

Fourteen percent answered correctly, estimating the social cost to be approximately $5 billion[1].

Those who support the pokies reform are more likely to guess the social cost to be high with 18% estimating it to be $5 billion and 11% estimating it to be $10 billion.

Those opposed to the reforms were less likely to estimate the social cost to be high, with only 9% believing it to be $5 billion and 5% believing it to be $10 billion.


[1] Productivity Commission, Inquiry Report, Gambling, No.50, 26 February 2010.

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Politicians Lying

Oct 10, 2011

Q. Which statement best reflects your view:

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
When a politician makes a statement or commitment they should stick to it no matter what 17% 12% 21% 16%
As situations change, it is reasonable that politicians change their positions 47% 65% 36% 61%
Politicians almost always lie – it’s naive to think otherwise 36% 23% 43% 23%

The most common position taken by respondents is that ‘as situations change, it is reasonable that politicians change their positions’ (47%).   Labor voters are the most likely to adopt this position.

Thirty six (36%) of respondents took the view that ‘politicians almost always like – it’s naïve to think otherwise’, and Coalition voters are the most likely to take this view.

Only 17% of respondents felt that ‘when a politician make a statement or commitment they should stick to it not matter what’, with Coalition voters the most likely to adopt this view.

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Circumstances in which Politicians Lie

Oct 10, 2011

Q. In which of the following situations do you think it is acceptable for a politician to lie:

The most acceptable situation in which respondents condoned lying is ‘where an individual’s safety is concerned’ (43%) and ‘when the information impacts on national security’ (42%). Twenty four (24%) regard it as acceptable to lie ‘when the information impacts on the nation’s economic interests’ and 20% see it as acceptable to lie ‘when new information about a situation comes to hand’.

The most unacceptable circumstance in which a politician can lie is ‘where a change of position is required for political considerations’ (81% not acceptable).

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