Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 3, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1909  respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 46% 46% 46% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 49% 49% 48%
Labor 38.0% 30% 32% 32% 33%
Greens 11.8% 11% 10% 12% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6% 10% 9% 8% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 57% 56% 56% 55%
Labor 50.1% 43% 44% 44% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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The Economy

Oct 3, 2011

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

1 Dec

08

15 Jun 09 5 Oct

09

28 Jun

10

18 Oct

10

4 April

11

4 Jul

11

3 Oct

11

Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total better 21% 43% 66% 33% 40% 27% 22% 16% 26% 12% 15%
Total worse 61% 37% 15% 31% 30% 37% 49% 58% 39% 72% 58%
Get a lot better 2% 5% 8% 5% 6% 4% 3% 2% 5% 1% 3%
Get a little better 19% 38% 58% 28% 34% 23% 19% 14% 21% 11% 12%
Get a little worse 45% 28% 11% 23% 20% 27% 31% 41% 34% 47% 44%
Get a lot worse 16% 9% 4% 8% 10% 10% 18% 17% 5% 25% 14%
Stay much the same 13% 17% 15% 30% 24% 27% 25% 22% 33% 15% 27%
No opinion 5% 3% 4% 7% 6% 8% 4% 4% 3% 1% 1%

Confidence in the economic outlook has weakened with the percentage of respondents believing conditions to be getting worse increasing 9 points to 58% (total worse), from 49% in July this year.  Those believing that economic conditions will get better over the next 12 months has fallen 6 points from 22% to 16% (total better).

Compared to 12 months ago, respondents are far less likely to think things will get better, having fallen from 40% (total better) in October 2010 to 16% (total better).  Conversely, pessimism has risen since this time last year, with the proportion of respondents believing conditions to get worse increasing from 30% (total worse) in October 2010 to 58% (total worse).

Labor voters are far less likely to think that things will get worse (39% total worse).  Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 72% (total worse) believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months.

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Personal financial situation

Oct 3, 2011

Q, Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

28 Jun

10

18 Oct

10

4 April

11

4 Jul

11

3 Oct

11

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Total better 29% 33% 32% 28% 24% 30% 23% 32%
Total worse 31% 29% 31% 36% 41% 27% 52% 35%
Get a lot better 5% 6% 7% 5% 4% 6% 3% 7%
Get a little better 24% 27% 25% 23% 20% 24% 20% 25%
Get a little worse 21% 21% 22% 23% 27% 16% 34% 29%
Get a lot worse 10% 8% 9% 13% 14% 11% 18% 6%
Stay much the same 37% 32% 32% 32% 32% 41% 24% 31%
No opinion 4% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2%

Twenty four per cent (24%) of respondents believe that their personal financial situation will get a lot better (4%) or a little better (20%) in the next 12 months.  A larger proportion of respondents believe that their personal financial situation will get a little worse (27%) or a lot worse (14%) over the next 12 months (41% total worse).

Compared to 12 months ago, individual optimism over personal financial situations has weakened, falling from 33% (total better) in October 2010 to 24% (total better).

The proportion of respondents believing their personal financial situation will get worse over the next 12 months has risen 12% from 29% (total worse) in October 2010 to 41% (total worse).

Greens voters are the most likely to believe that their personal financial situation will get better over the next 12 months (32% total better), whereas Coalition voters are the most likely to believe that theirs will get worse (52% total worse).

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Job security

Oct 3, 2011

Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?

8 Jun

09

5 Oct

09

28 Jun 10 18 Oct 10 4 Apr

11

4 Jul

11

3 Oct

11

Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total concerned 52% 49% 43% 40% 43% 45% 47% 43% 55% 38%
Very concerned 13% 14% 9% 11% 11% 13% 14% 11% 19% 7%
Somewhat concerned 39% 35% 34% 29% 32% 32% 33% 32% 36% 31%
Not at all concerned 35% 40% 38% 42% 43% 39% 37% 40% 34% 51%
Don’t know 6% 6% 12% 10% 8% 8% 7% 8% 6% 4%
No employees in the immediate family 8% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 9% 5% 7%

Concern over job security has risen slightly since the last time the question was polled, increasing 2 points up from 45% in July 2011 to 47% (total concerned).

In the 12 months from October 2010, total concern has increased from 40% to 47%.

Coalition voters are the most likely to be concerned that they or a member of their immediately family will lose their job in the next year or so (55% total concerned), whereas Greens voters are less likely to be concerned (38% total concerned).

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Tax reform

Oct 3, 2011

Q.  For each of the following proposals around tax reform, please indicate whether you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose the suggestion.

Total Support Total Oppose Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly Oppose Don’t know
Decreasing income tax for low income earners 81% 11% 34% 47% 8% 3% 7%
Improving tax breaks for small-medium business 76% 10% 20% 56% 7% 3% 13%
Increasing the mining tax 47% 37% 16% 31% 22% 15% 16%
Abolishing negative gearing on new property purchases 33% 37% 8% 25% 20% 17% 29%
Cutting the company tax rate 32% 41% 6% 26% 29% 12% 28%
Repealing the fringe benefits tax 30% 28% 7% 23% 19% 9% 42%
Increasing the carbon tax 19% 68% 5% 14% 21% 47% 13%
Introducing an inheritance tax 10% 75% 3% 7% 24% 51% 15%
Increasing the goods and services tax (GST) 9% 84% 1% 8% 31% 53% 7%

Decreasing income tax for low income earners has the strongest support from respondents, with 81% either strongly supporting or supporting the suggestion.   Improving tax breaks for small-medium business also attracted a similar amount of endorsement (76% total support).

Increasing the mining tax has a significant amount of support (47% total support).

Whilst the proposed reforms of abolishing negative gearing on new property purchases and cutting the company tax rate attracted a significant amount of support, more respondents are opposed to these measures than in favour of them: with 37% opposed to abolishing negative gearing and 41% opposed to cutting the company tax rate.

Strongest opposition is registered against the proposal to increase the GST, with 84% opposed to the idea and only 9% in favour of it.  Introducing an inheritance tax is similarly unpopular (75% total opposed).

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Tax reform by Voting Intention

Oct 3, 2011

Q.  For each of the following proposals around tax reform, please indicate whether you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose the suggestion.

Total Support Total Support – Labor Total Support – Lib/Nat Total Support – Greens
Decreasing income tax for low income earners 81% 85% 81% 81%
Improving tax breaks for small-medium business 76% 74% 85% 71%
Increasing the mining tax 47% 67% 35% 72%
Abolishing negative gearing on new property purchases 33% 37% 33% 38%
Cutting the company tax rate 32% 24% 43% 25%
Repealing the fringe benefits tax 30% 25% 40% 22%
Increasing the carbon tax 19% 29% 8% 60%
Introducing an inheritance tax 10% 14% 10% 18%
Increasing the goods and services tax (GST) 9% 7% 12% 12%

Labor voters are far more likely to support increasing the mining tax (47% total support) and increasing the carbon tax (29% total support).

Coalition voters are more likely to support improving tax breaks for small-medium business (85% total support), cutting the company tax rate (43% total support), repealing the fringe benefits tax (40% total support) and increasing the GST (12% total support).

Greens voters are the most likely to support increasing the mining tax (72%) and by far the most likely to support increasing the carbon tax (60% total support).  They are also more likely to support introducing an inheritance tax (18% total support) and increasing the GST (12% total support).

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Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 26, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size =  1891  respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 46% 46% 46% 46%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 49% 49% 49%
Labor 38.0% 32% 32% 32% 32%
Greens 11.8% 10% 10% 10% 12%
Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 10% 9% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last  week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 56% 56% 56%
Labor 50.1% 44% 44% 44% 44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Perceived intake of asylum seekers as a proportion of annual immigration

Sep 26, 2011

Q.  From what you have read and heard, what percentage of Australia’s annual immigration intake are asylum seekers arriving by boat?

7 Jun 2010 This week Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
50% or more 10% 12% 11% 13% 10%
About 25% 15% 11% 10% 12% 6%
About 10% 13% 10% 9% 10% 8%
About 5% 15% 16% 18% 17% 16%
1% or less 18% 25% 26% 24% 39%
Don’t know 30% 27% 25% 23% 21%

Twenty three per cent (23%) of respondents think that the proportion of asylum seeker intake by boat is 25% or more of the annual immigration intake.

Ten per cent (10%) of respondents think that the percentage of boat arrivals is about 10% of annual immigration intake and 16% believe it to be about 5%.

Twenty five per cent (25%) of respondents believe that the proportion of asylum seekers arriving by boat constitutes 1% or less of our annual immigration intake and 27% of respondents don’t know.

Greens voters are the most likely to think that the percentage was 1% or less, with 39% of Greens respondents selecting this response.

The proportion of respondents believing the proportion to be ‘1% or less’ has shifted 7 points up from 18% to 25% since 7 June 2010.

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