2PP, Essential Report, Federal Government, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1909 respondents
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 46% | 46% | 46% | 45% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 48% |
| Labor | 38.0% | 30% | 32% | 32% | 33% |
| Greens | 11.8% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 57% | 56% | 56% | 55% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 43% | 44% | 44% | 45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
economy, Essential Report, Polling
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
| 1 Dec
08 |
15 Jun 09 | 5 Oct
09 |
28 Jun
10 |
18 Oct
10 |
4 April
11 |
4 Jul
11 |
3 Oct
11 |
Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total better | 21% | 43% | 66% | 33% | 40% | 27% | 22% | 16% | 26% | 12% | 15% |
| Total worse | 61% | 37% | 15% | 31% | 30% | 37% | 49% | 58% | 39% | 72% | 58% |
| Get a lot better | 2% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| Get a little better | 19% | 38% | 58% | 28% | 34% | 23% | 19% | 14% | 21% | 11% | 12% |
| Get a little worse | 45% | 28% | 11% | 23% | 20% | 27% | 31% | 41% | 34% | 47% | 44% |
| Get a lot worse | 16% | 9% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 18% | 17% | 5% | 25% | 14% |
| Stay much the same | 13% | 17% | 15% | 30% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 22% | 33% | 15% | 27% |
| No opinion | 5% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
Confidence in the economic outlook has weakened with the percentage of respondents believing conditions to be getting worse increasing 9 points to 58% (total worse), from 49% in July this year. Those believing that economic conditions will get better over the next 12 months has fallen 6 points from 22% to 16% (total better).
Compared to 12 months ago, respondents are far less likely to think things will get better, having fallen from 40% (total better) in October 2010 to 16% (total better). Conversely, pessimism has risen since this time last year, with the proportion of respondents believing conditions to get worse increasing from 30% (total worse) in October 2010 to 58% (total worse).
Labor voters are far less likely to think that things will get worse (39% total worse). Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 72% (total worse) believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months.
Essential Report, Personal financial situation, Polling
Q, Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
| 28 Jun
10 |
18 Oct
10 |
4 April
11 |
4 Jul
11 |
3 Oct
11 |
Vote
Labor |
Vote
Lib/Nat |
Vote
Greens |
|
| Total better | 29% | 33% | 32% | 28% | 24% | 30% | 23% | 32% |
| Total worse | 31% | 29% | 31% | 36% | 41% | 27% | 52% | 35% |
| Get a lot better | 5% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 7% |
| Get a little better | 24% | 27% | 25% | 23% | 20% | 24% | 20% | 25% |
| Get a little worse | 21% | 21% | 22% | 23% | 27% | 16% | 34% | 29% |
| Get a lot worse | 10% | 8% | 9% | 13% | 14% | 11% | 18% | 6% |
| Stay much the same | 37% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 41% | 24% | 31% |
| No opinion | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
Twenty four per cent (24%) of respondents believe that their personal financial situation will get a lot better (4%) or a little better (20%) in the next 12 months. A larger proportion of respondents believe that their personal financial situation will get a little worse (27%) or a lot worse (14%) over the next 12 months (41% total worse).
Compared to 12 months ago, individual optimism over personal financial situations has weakened, falling from 33% (total better) in October 2010 to 24% (total better).
The proportion of respondents believing their personal financial situation will get worse over the next 12 months has risen 12% from 29% (total worse) in October 2010 to 41% (total worse).
Greens voters are the most likely to believe that their personal financial situation will get better over the next 12 months (32% total better), whereas Coalition voters are the most likely to believe that theirs will get worse (52% total worse).
Essential Report, job security, Polling
Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?
| 8 Jun
09 |
5 Oct
09 |
28 Jun 10 | 18 Oct 10 | 4 Apr
11 |
4 Jul
11 |
3 Oct
11 |
Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total concerned | 52% | 49% | 43% | 40% | 43% | 45% | 47% | 43% | 55% | 38% |
| Very concerned | 13% | 14% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 11% | 19% | 7% |
| Somewhat concerned | 39% | 35% | 34% | 29% | 32% | 32% | 33% | 32% | 36% | 31% |
| Not at all concerned | 35% | 40% | 38% | 42% | 43% | 39% | 37% | 40% | 34% | 51% |
| Don’t know | 6% | 6% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 4% |
| No employees in the immediate family | 8% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 5% | 7% |
Concern over job security has risen slightly since the last time the question was polled, increasing 2 points up from 45% in July 2011 to 47% (total concerned).
In the 12 months from October 2010, total concern has increased from 40% to 47%.
Coalition voters are the most likely to be concerned that they or a member of their immediately family will lose their job in the next year or so (55% total concerned), whereas Greens voters are less likely to be concerned (38% total concerned).
Carbon Tax, Essential Report, GST, Mining tax, negative gearing, Polling, tax, tax reform
Q. For each of the following proposals around tax reform, please indicate whether you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose the suggestion.
| Total Support | Total Oppose | Strongly support | Support | Oppose | Strongly Oppose | Don’t know | ||
| Decreasing income tax for low income earners | 81% | 11% | 34% | 47% | 8% | 3% | 7% | |
| Improving tax breaks for small-medium business | 76% | 10% | 20% | 56% | 7% | 3% | 13% | |
| Increasing the mining tax | 47% | 37% | 16% | 31% | 22% | 15% | 16% | |
| Abolishing negative gearing on new property purchases | 33% | 37% | 8% | 25% | 20% | 17% | 29% | |
| Cutting the company tax rate | 32% | 41% | 6% | 26% | 29% | 12% | 28% | |
| Repealing the fringe benefits tax | 30% | 28% | 7% | 23% | 19% | 9% | 42% | |
| Increasing the carbon tax | 19% | 68% | 5% | 14% | 21% | 47% | 13% | |
| Introducing an inheritance tax | 10% | 75% | 3% | 7% | 24% | 51% | 15% | |
| Increasing the goods and services tax (GST) | 9% | 84% | 1% | 8% | 31% | 53% | 7% |
Decreasing income tax for low income earners has the strongest support from respondents, with 81% either strongly supporting or supporting the suggestion. Improving tax breaks for small-medium business also attracted a similar amount of endorsement (76% total support).
Increasing the mining tax has a significant amount of support (47% total support).
Whilst the proposed reforms of abolishing negative gearing on new property purchases and cutting the company tax rate attracted a significant amount of support, more respondents are opposed to these measures than in favour of them: with 37% opposed to abolishing negative gearing and 41% opposed to cutting the company tax rate.
Strongest opposition is registered against the proposal to increase the GST, with 84% opposed to the idea and only 9% in favour of it. Introducing an inheritance tax is similarly unpopular (75% total opposed).
Carbon Tax, Essential Report, GST, income tax, Mining tax, negative gearing, Polling, tax
Q. For each of the following proposals around tax reform, please indicate whether you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose the suggestion.
| Total Support | Total Support – Labor | Total Support – Lib/Nat | Total Support – Greens | ||
| Decreasing income tax for low income earners | 81% | 85% | 81% | 81% | |
| Improving tax breaks for small-medium business | 76% | 74% | 85% | 71% | |
| Increasing the mining tax | 47% | 67% | 35% | 72% | |
| Abolishing negative gearing on new property purchases | 33% | 37% | 33% | 38% | |
| Cutting the company tax rate | 32% | 24% | 43% | 25% | |
| Repealing the fringe benefits tax | 30% | 25% | 40% | 22% | |
| Increasing the carbon tax | 19% | 29% | 8% | 60% | |
| Introducing an inheritance tax | 10% | 14% | 10% | 18% | |
| Increasing the goods and services tax (GST) | 9% | 7% | 12% | 12% |
Labor voters are far more likely to support increasing the mining tax (47% total support) and increasing the carbon tax (29% total support).
Coalition voters are more likely to support improving tax breaks for small-medium business (85% total support), cutting the company tax rate (43% total support), repealing the fringe benefits tax (40% total support) and increasing the GST (12% total support).
Greens voters are the most likely to support increasing the mining tax (72%) and by far the most likely to support increasing the carbon tax (60% total support). They are also more likely to support introducing an inheritance tax (18% total support) and increasing the GST (12% total support).
2PP, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1891 respondents
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| Labor | 38.0% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| Greens | 11.8% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 12% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 8% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
asylum seekers, Essential Report, immigration, Polling
Q. From what you have read and heard, what percentage of Australia’s annual immigration intake are asylum seekers arriving by boat?
| 7 Jun 2010 | This week | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| 50% or more | 10% | 12% | 11% | 13% | 10% |
| About 25% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 6% |
| About 10% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 8% |
| About 5% | 15% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 16% |
| 1% or less | 18% | 25% | 26% | 24% | 39% |
| Don’t know | 30% | 27% | 25% | 23% | 21% |
Twenty three per cent (23%) of respondents think that the proportion of asylum seeker intake by boat is 25% or more of the annual immigration intake.
Ten per cent (10%) of respondents think that the percentage of boat arrivals is about 10% of annual immigration intake and 16% believe it to be about 5%.
Twenty five per cent (25%) of respondents believe that the proportion of asylum seekers arriving by boat constitutes 1% or less of our annual immigration intake and 27% of respondents don’t know.
Greens voters are the most likely to think that the percentage was 1% or less, with 39% of Greens respondents selecting this response.
The proportion of respondents believing the proportion to be ‘1% or less’ has shifted 7 points up from 18% to 25% since 7 June 2010.