The Essential Report Archive Read the latest report

  • Jun, 2012

    , , , , , , , , ,

    Tries Lies: More Carbon Porkies to Come

    First published on The Drum 26 June 2012

    The ‘lie’ at the heart of Labor’s carbon tax has assumed legendary status. Never mind that the realities of the supposed falsehood are highly contestable – Labor’s carbon pricing scheme is arguably not a tax at all – “there will be no carbon tax under the government I lead” has become the iconic political lie of our times.

    Its ruthlessly successful exploitation by the Abbott Opposition has spawned a political craze in exposing opponents’ lies, in the hope of replicating this highly successful case study in trust-related brand damage.

    But what about the Opposition’s penchant for stretching the truth on impacts of the carbon tax?

    George Brandis’s assertion the carbon tax was responsible for 1900 job cuts at Fairfax was a cracker, but only a natural extension of years of dubious claims the carbon tax would wipe towns off the map, spark mass shut-downs of industry and send families to the wall under crippling power prices.

    With not much else to look forward to, Labor hopes the sun rising on July 1 – towns and families intact – will expose the Opposition’s spurious rhetoric about the carbon tax. Who is calling us liars now, you liars?

    The collapse in trust in politics as we’ve reported on before, is a defining feature of our current political culture, driven largely by the kind of negative politics that have characterised the carbon debate.

    In this environment, Labor has been unable to win back support for its carbon pricing scheme, with support levels on the eve of its introduction at the same low level they were towards the start of last year.

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which, from July 2012, will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

     

    7 Mar 2011

    23 May

    1 Aug

    21 Nov

    Total

    25 Jun 2012

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total support

    35%

    41%

    39%

    38%

    35%

    67%

    13%

    74%

    Total oppose

    48%

    44%

    51%

    53%

    54%

    21%

    81%

    21%

    Strongly support

    9%

    14%

    15%

    14%

    14%

    28%

    4%

    38%

    Support

    26%

    27%

    24%

    24%

    21%

    39%

    9%

    36%

    Oppose

    19%

    15%

    19%

    17%

    19%

    12%

    24%

    13%

    Strongly oppose

    29%

    29%

    32%

    36%

    35%

    9%

    57%

    8%

    Don’t know

    18%

    15%

    10%

    10%

    11%

    12%

    7%

    6%

     

    If there’s a positive for Labor there, it’s that it has been able to win the support of its base on this issue, with two-thirds of Labor voters (admittedly a small pool – link to table) supporting the policy.

    But despite Labor’s focus on selling the compensation elements of the carbon pricing reform, the public has bought the cost-of-living scare, with 71% believing their cost of living will increase moderately or a lot. A further 20% thought there would be a small increase and just 2% thought there would be no impact. Power, petrol, groceries and fruit and veg – people are expecting the introduction of the carbon tax to be a disaster for their hip pockets.

    Q. And what impact do you expect the carbon tax to have on each of the following?

     

     

    Increase a lot

    Increase a little

    Stay much the same

    Decrease a little

    Decrease a lot

    Don’t know

    Energy prices

    67%

    26%

    4%

    *

    3%

    Fuel prices

    53%

    31%

    11%

    1%

    *

    4%

    Grocery prices

    41%

    41%

    14%

    1%

    4%

    Fresh fruit and vegetable prices

    39%

    39%

    18%

    *

    *

    4%

    Unemployment

    31%

    27%

    32%

    2%

    1%

    8%

    Interest rates

    22%

    18%

    38%

    8%

    1%

    13%

    And herein lies the risk for Tony Abbott.

    With the happy bonus that most of us aren’t really too sure what the carbon tax actually is, we can expect plenty more Brandis-style water-muddying as the carbon tax is blamed for job losses, power price rises, divorces and bad haircuts caused by completely unrelated factors.

    But what if the Opposition can’t deliver carbon tax Armageddon? What if people accept that any moderate increases in prices have been offset by the one-off ‘cashforyou’ payments and associated support packages? Or, and this may be stretching it, what if the media starts questioning come of the tenuous links between price rises and carbon that the Opposition attempts to exploit?

    If the world doesn’t end on Sunday, will people shift their opinion of the Carbon Tax or, worse still for Abbott, start to wonder whether they have been played for fools? Already the rhetoric is shifting from ‘death strike’ to ‘python’s grip’ but is this sustainable as a basis for the daily high-vis vest photo opp that has become the Oppostion’s modus operandi.

    Another potential porky lies in the Opposition Leader’s promise to repeal the carbon tax.Abbott has pledged ‘in blood’ there would be no carbon tax under the government he leads.

    Currently, we’re fairly evenly split on whether a pledge in blood is actually a core promise, with a slight majority believing he’ll go through with it.

    Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal the carbon tax?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total likely

    44%

    28%

    64%

    42%

    Total unlikely

    40%

    62%

    22%

    41%

    Don’t know

    17%

    11%

    14%

    17%

     

    But what if he can’t get the numbers through the Senate? What if he is forced to negotiate and, God forbid compromise, with those holding the balance of power? Will this be a case of a politician dealing with the hand they are dealt or just another example that all politicians lie?

    While it’s easy to dismiss the dealing in truth and lies as business as usual politics, but in turning it into a Weapon of Mass Destruction it will be interesting to see if the Opposition leader has not set set his own future government onto a path of Mutually Assured Destruction.

     

     

  • Jun, 2012

    , , , , , ,

    Republic

    Q.  Are you in favour or against Australia becoming a republic?

     

    Jan 2010

    March 2011

    Oct 2011

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    In favour

    41%

    39%

    41%

    39%

    56%

    27%

    54%

    Against

    32%

    34%

    33%

    35%

    22%

    51%

    21%

    No opinion

    27%

    27%

    26%

    27%

    22%

    22%

    25%

    39% favour Australia becoming a republic and 35% are against – showing only a little change since this question was asked in October 2011 (from net +8 to net +4 in favour). 27% have no opinion.

    Those most in favour were respondents aged 45-64 (45%), people earning $1,600+pw (45%), Labor voters (56%) and Greens voters (54%).

    Those most against were aged 65+ (58%) and Liberal/National voters (51%).

    36% of respondents aged under 35 had no opinion.

  • May, 2012

    , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,904 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    16/4/12

    2 weeks ago

    30/4/12

    Last week

    7/5/12

    This week

    14/5/12

    Liberal

    45%

    46%

    47%

    47%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    48%

    50%

    50%

    50%

    Labor

    38.0%

    31%

    31%

    29%

    30%

    Greens

    11.8%

    11%

    11%

    11%

    11%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    9%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    56%

    57%

    58%

    57%

    Labor

    50.1%

    44%

    43%

    42%

    43%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

    Comments »

  • May, 2012

    , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,909 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    10/4/12

    2 weeks ago

    23/4/12

    Last week

    30/4/12

    This week

    7/5/12

    Liberal

    47%

    45%

    46%

    47%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    50%

    49%

    50%

    50%

    Labor

    38.0%

    31%

    31%

    31%

    29%

    Greens

    11.8%

    11%

    11%

    11%

    11%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    9%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    57%

    56%

    57%

    58%

    Labor

    50.1%

    43%

    44%

    43%

    42%

     

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

    Comments »

  • Apr, 2012

    , , , , , , , ,

    TRENDS: Seeing through the feel-good mining ads


    Peter Lewis says the public no longer believes that mining has personal benefits – despite an expensive ad campaign from the industry.

    The long-running ‘This is our story’ campaign is the soft side of the anti-mining tax’s shock-and-awe bombardment of 2010 that delivered the head of a prime minister and a windfall approaching $20 billion for its sponsors.

    But in the intervening 18 months, the national tone has changed from one where the mining industry’s success was seen as central to the national interest to one where the question appears to be: is this ‘our’ story or just theirs?

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3968928.html

  • Apr, 2012

    , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size =  1,910 respondents

     

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2/4/12

    Last week

    16/4/12

    This week

    23/4/12

    This week

    30/4/12

    Liberal

    46%

    45%

    45%

    46%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    48%

    48%

    49%

    50%

    Labor

    38.0%

    33%

    31%

    31%

    31%

    Greens

    11.8%

    11%

    11%

    11%

    11%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    8%

    9%

    9%

    9%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    55%

    56%

    56%

    57%

    Labor

    50.1%

    45%

    44%

    44%

    43%

     

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These figures have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

    Comments »

  • Apr, 2012

    , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,892 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    26/3/12

    2 weeks ago

    10/4/12

    Last week

    16/4/12

    This week

    22/4/12

    Liberal

    45%

    47%

    45%

    45%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    47%

    50%

    48%

    49%

    Labor

    38.0%

    34%

    31%

    31%

    31%

    Greens

    11.8%

    10%

    11%

    11%

    11%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    9%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    54%

    57%

    56%

    56%

    Labor

    50.1%

    46%

    43%

    44%

    44%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

    Comments »

  • Apr, 2012

    , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,902 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    12/3/12

    2 weeks ago

    26/3/12

    Last week

    2/4/12

    This week

    10/4/12

    Liberal

    46%

    45%

    46%

    47%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    49%

    47%

    48%

    50%

    Labor

    38.0%

    31%

    34%

    33%

    31%

    Greens

    11.8%

    10%

    10%

    11%

    11%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    10%

    9%

    8%

    9%

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    57%

    54%

    55%

    57%

    Labor

    50.1%

    43%

    46%

    45%

    43%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

    Comments »

Error: