Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 8, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to? 

Sample size = 1,804 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 11/6/14

2 weeks ago

24/6/14

Last week

1/7/14

This week

8/7/14

Liberal

 

35%

37%

37%

36%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

37%

40%

40%

39%

Labor

33.4%

40%

38%

38%

40%

Greens

8.6%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

6%

5%

6%

6%

Other/Independent

6.9%

8%

7%

7%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 11/6/14

2 weeks ago

24/6/14

Last week

1/7/14

This week

8/7/14

Liberal National

53.5%

46%

48%

48%

47%

Labor

46.5%

54%

52%

52%

53%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 1, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,835 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 3/6/14

2 weeks ago

17/6/14

Last week

24/6/14

This week

1/7/14

Liberal

 

35%

36%

37%

37%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

38%

39%

40%

40%

Labor

33.4%

39%

41%

38%

38%

Greens

8.6%

10%

9%

9%

9%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

6%

5%

5%

6%

Other/Independent

6.9%

7%

7%

7%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 3/6/14

2 weeks ago

17/6/14

Last week

24/6/14

This week

1/7/14

Liberal National

53.5%

47%

46%

48%

48%

Labor

46.5%

53%

54%

52%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 20, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

 Sample size = 1,864 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

23/7/12

2 weeks ago

6/8/12

Last week

13/8/12

This week

20/8/12

Liberal

45%

46%

46%

46%

National

4%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

33%

32%

32%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

8%

8%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

56%

57%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

44%

43%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 13, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,868 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

16/7/12

2 weeks ago

30/7/12

Last week

6/8/12

This week

13/8/12

Liberal

46%

45%

46%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

31%

33%

33%

32%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

8%

8%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

57%

55%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

43%

45%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 16, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,857 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

18/6/12

2 weeks ago

2/7/12

Last week

9/7/12

This week

16/7/12

Liberal

46%

45%

46%

46%

National

3%

3%

4%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

32%

31%

31%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

11%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

9%

9%

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

56%

57%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

44%

43%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 25, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,853 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

28/5/12

2 weeks ago

12/6/12

Last week

18/6/12

This week

25/6/12

Liberal

47%

46%

46%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

50%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

32%

33%

33%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

9%

8%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

57%

56%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

43%

44%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Federal politics – voting intention

May 21, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,918 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

23/4/12

2 weeks ago

7/5/12

Last week

14/5/12

This week

21/5/12

Liberal

45%

47%

47%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

50%

50%

49%

Labor

38.0%

31%

29%

30%

33%

Greens

11.8%

11%

11%

11%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

58%

57%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

42%

43%

44

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

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