Federal politics – voting intention

May 30, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,893

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 43% 44% 44%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 47% 46% 46% 47%
Labor 38.0 35% 36% 34% 34%
Greens 11.8 9% 11% 12% 12%
Other/Independent 6.6 9% 7% 8% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 52% 53% 54%
Labor 50.1% 46% 48% 47% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Interests Represented by Parties

May 30, 2011

Q. Which political party do you think best represents the interests of –

Labor Liberal Greens Don’t know
Families with young children 34% 31% 5% 29%
Students 30% 28% 10% 33%
Working people on average incomes 40% 32% 5% 23%
Working people on low incomes 43% 27% 6% 24%
Working people on high incomes 13% 63% 2% 22%
People on welfare 38% 23% 8% 30%
Pensioners 33% 28% 5% 34%
Small businesses and self-employed 20% 47% 4% 29%
Big business 13% 62% 2% 23%
The next generation of Australians 19% 31% 17% 33%
Indigenous people 23% 21% 16% 40%
Ethnic communities 22% 21% 15% 42%
Rural and regional Australians 18% 34% 11% 36%

The Labor Party is considered the party which best represents the interests of working people on low and average incomes, people on welfare and pensioners. The Liberal Party is considered best at representing the interests of people on high incomes, big business, small business and self-employed, rural and regional Australians and the next generation. The Greens’ main strengths are in representing the next generation, indigenous people and ethnic communities.

There was little difference between the major parties in terms of representing the interests of families with young children, students, indigenous people and ethnic communities.

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Best Leader of the Labor Party

May 30, 2011

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Julia Gillard 23% 51% 10% 26%
Kevin Rudd 32% 31% 31% 31%
Wayne Swan 2% 1% 3% 3%
Greg Combet 4% 5% 3% 6%
Bill Shorten 3% 3% 3% 4%
Someone else 19% 5% 31% 11%
Don’t know 17% 5% 18% 19%

32% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 23% prefer Julia Gillard. Julia Gillard is preferred by 51% of Labor voters compared to 31% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 34% to 21% and women by 30% to 25%.

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Best Leader of the Liberal Party

May 30, 2011

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?

27 Sep 2010 28 Feb 2011 30 May 2011
Total Total Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Tony Abbott 26% 24% 22% 10% 40% 7%
Malcolm Turnbull 20% 18% 25% 35% 19% 33%
Joe Hockey 15% 16% 17% 13% 22% 18%
Julie Bishop 5% 4% 3% 4% 2% 1%
Andrew Robb na 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Someone else na 14% 13% 17% 7% 16%
Don’t know 33% 22% 19% 20% 8% 22%

25% (+7%) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 22% (-3%) prefer Tony Abbott and 17% (+1%) Joe Hockey.

Among Liberal/National voters, 40% prefer Tony Abbott, 22% Joe Hockey and 19% Malcolm Turnbull.

Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by 25% of men and 24% of women, Tony Abbott by 24% of men and 19% of women.

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Position on Climate Change

May 30, 2011

Q. Do you agree that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Nov 09 Dec 10
Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity 52% 71% 34% 78% 53% 45%
We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate 36% 20% 54% 14% 34% 36%
Don’t know 12% 8% 12% 8% 13% 19%

52% agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 36% believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. This is a significant increase in the belief that climate change is happening and caused by human activity since December last year (and a return to the levels recorded in November 2009).

By age groups, those aged under 35 split 64%/24% and those aged 55+ split 47%/48%.

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Support for Carbon Pricing

May 30, 2011

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

7 March 14 March 28 March 18 April 23 May 30 May Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 35% 38% 34% 39% 41% 38% 62% 17% 62%
Total oppose 48% 49% 51% 49% 44% 48% 22% 73% 23%
Strongly support 9% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 26% 4% 29%
Support 26% 26% 22% 26% 27% 24% 36% 13% 33%
Oppose 19% 17% 19% 15% 15% 19% 13% 23% 17%
Strongly oppose 29% 32% 32% 34% 29% 29% 9% 50% 6%
Don’t know 18% 13% 15% 12% 15% 15% 16% 11% 14%

38% support the Government’s proposed carbon pricing scheme and 48% oppose. Although a change from last week’s figures this is much the same as recorded in the April poll. It is supported by 62% of Labor and Greens voters but opposed by 73% of coalition voters.

By age, those aged under 35 split 44% support/35% oppose, and those aged 55+ split 33% support/58% oppose.

For those who believe that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity 60% support and 24% oppose. For those who believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate 13% support and 80% oppose

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Early Election over Carbon Tax

May 30, 2011

Q. Do you think the Government should call an early election over the carbon tax?

28 March 31 May Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 40% 42% 15% 71% 18%
No 44% 42% 68% 19% 66%
Don’t know 17% 16% 17% 11% 16%

42% think the Government should call an early election over the carbon tax and 42% disagree. This is similar to the views recorded in the previous poll in March and is strongly associated with voting intention.

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Who Will Pay Carbon Tax?

May 26, 2011

Q. Thinking about Carbon Tax, how would you expect it will be paid? (This question has been commissioned by Network Ten)

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Men Women Age

18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged 55+
Industries will have to absorb the costs 14% 17% 9% 22% 14% 13% 16% 14% 10%
Consumers will end up paying it because industry will increase prices 63% 54% 79% 40% 63% 63% 59% 65% 65%
Industries will pay and consumers will be compensated for any price increases 13% 17% 8% 32% 13% 13% 12% 11% 16%
Don’t know 10% 11% 4% 6% 10% 11% 13% 10% 8%

Nearly two thirds (63%) of respondents believe that consumers will end up paying the carbon tax because industry will increase prices – 14% think industries will have to absorb the costs and 13% think industries will pay but consumers will be compensated for price increases.

Greens voters are least likely to think that consumers will end up paying for it (40%). Otherwise perceptions are similar across demographic groups.

Of those who think consumers will end up paying, 30% support the scheme and 58% oppose.

Of those who think industry will absorb the costs, 74% support the scheme and 21% oppose.

Of those who think Industries will pay and consumers will be compensated, 74% support the scheme and 19% oppose.

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