2011 Outlook – Political Parties

Dec 20, 2010

Q. Do you think 2011 will be a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?

Total good Total poor Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
The Liberal Party 35% 18% 7% 28% 34% 14% 4% 13%
The Labor Party 19% 40% 4% 15% 29% 29% 11% 12%
The Greens 22% 29% 4% 18% 35% 16% 13% 14%

Respondents expect that 2011 is likely to be a good year for the Liberal Party (35% good/18% bad) and a bad year for the Labor Party (19%/40%).

Comparing these results with last week’s questions about 2010, respondents expect the Liberal Party to have a better year  – 2010 33% good/27% bad compared to 2011 35%/18%.

Also, although the Greens were assessed to have had a good 2010 (42% good/21% bad) expectations are not so positive for 2011 (22%/29%).

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2011 Outlook – Politicians

Dec 20, 2010

Q. Do you think 2011 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?

Total good Total poor Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
Julia Gillard 28% 36% 5% 23% 23% 26% 10% 12%
Tony Abbott 29% 27% 5% 24% 32% 20% 7% 13%
Kevin Rudd 21% 30% 3% 18% 35% 21% 9% 14%
Malcolm Turnbull 20% 21% 3% 17% 41% 17% 4% 18%
Bob Brown 20% 30% 4% 16% 31% 18% 12% 19%

There were no strong expectations one way or the other that 2011 would be good or bad for politicians.

Overall, there were negative expectations for Julia Gillard (-8% net), Kevin Rudd (-9%) and Bob Brown (-10%) while respondents were divided over Tony Abbott (+2%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-1%).

Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2011 to be worse than 2010 for Julia Gillard (net +24% in 2010 compared to

-8% in 2011) and Bob Brown (+17% in 2010/-10% in 2011).

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Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 6, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,896

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 38% 42% 42% 41% 42%
National 3% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 40% 46% 45% 44% 45%
Labor 37% 39% 38% 38% 38%
Greens 12% 8% 10% 11% 11%
Other/Independent 10% 7% 8% 7% 6%
2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

This week
Total Lib/Nat 48% 51% 51% 51% 51%
Labor 52% 49% 49% 49% 49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 29, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,858

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 39% 41% 42% 42% 41%
National 2% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 41% 44% 45% 45% 44%
Labor 39% 41% 39% 38% 38%
Greens 9% 8% 10% 10% 11%
Other/Independent 10% 7% 7% 8% 7%
2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

This week
Total Lib/Nat 49% 50% 51% 51% 51%
Labor 51% 50% 49% 49% 49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 22, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,869

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 39% 41% 42% 42% 42%
National 2% 3% 4% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 41% 44% 46% 45% 45%
Labor 40% 41% 39% 39% 38%
Greens 10% 8% 8% 10% 10%
Other/Independent 9% 7% 7% 7% 8%
2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

This week
Total Lib/Nat 48% 50% 51% 51% 51%
Labor 52% 50% 49% 49% 49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 15, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,907

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 41% 42% 41% 42% 42%
National 2% 2% 3% 4% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43% 44% 44% 46% 45%
Labor 38% 40% 41% 39% 39%
Greens 10% 9% 8% 8% 10%
Other/Independent 9% 7% 7% 7% 7%
2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

This week
Total Lib/Nat 50% 50% 50% 51% 51%
Labor 50% 50% 50% 49% 49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal Politics – 2PP Voting Intention – 4 Week Trend

Nov 30, 2009

NB.  The data in the above graph is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results.

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s data.

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