Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 24, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,888  respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 46% 45% 45% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 48% 48% 48%
Labor 38.0% 32% 33% 33% 32%
Greens 11.8% 12% 10% 11% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 9% 8% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 55% 55% 55%
Labor 50.1% 44% 45% 45% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 17, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,905  respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 46% 45% 45% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 48% 48% 48%
Labor 38.0% 32% 33% 33% 33%
Greens 11.8% 10% 11% 10% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6% 9% 9% 9% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 55% 55% 55%
Labor 50.1% 44% 45% 45% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 10, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1909  respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 46% 46% 45% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 49% 48% 48%
Labor 38.0% 32% 32% 33% 33%
Greens 11.8% 10% 12% 11% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 10% 8% 9% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 56% 55% 55%
Labor 50.1% 44% 44% 45% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 3, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1909  respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 46% 46% 46% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 49% 49% 48%
Labor 38.0% 30% 32% 32% 33%
Greens 11.8% 11% 10% 12% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6% 10% 9% 8% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 57% 56% 56% 55%
Labor 50.1% 43% 44% 44% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

Sep 26, 2011

Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view about the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition leader?

7 Mar 2011 6 Jun 2011 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Tony Abbott is performing the role of Opposition leader well and is keeping the Government accountable 41% 42% 38% 6% 77% 10%
Tony Abbott is just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the Government 43% 44% 45% 82% 11% 77%
Don’t know 16% 15% 17% 12% 11% 13%

The proportion of respondents that believe that Tony Abbott is performing the role of Opposition Leader well is 38%, down four points from when the question was last asked on 6 June 2011.  Coalition voters are far more likely to regard Abbott as performing the role well (77%).

Forty five per cent (45%) of respondents believe that Abbott is just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of Government (45%), a result that is fairly consistent with the previous occasions on which the question has been polled.   Labor voters are the most likely to agree with this position (82%), as are Greens voters (77%).

Respondents aged 65+ are much more likely to regard Abbott as performing well (56%).

Respondents from Queensland were also somewhat more likely to regard Abbott as doing well (44%).

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Composition of Parliament

Sep 19, 2011

Q. Thinking about the Federal Government, which of the following scenarios would you prefer –

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Green
One of the major parties having a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate 36% 36% 49% 7%
One of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the other having a majority in the Senate 21% 16% 27% 10%
One of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the Greens having the balance of power in the Senate 16% 22% 4% 63%
Don’t know 28% 26% 21% 19%

Most respondents think that ‘one of the major parties having a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate’ is preferable (36%).  Lib/Nat voters are the most likely to prefer this scenario (49%) and Greens voters the least likely to do so (7%).  Male respondents were also more likely to prefer this scenario (40%) than female respondents (32%).

Respondents then selected ‘one of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the other having a majority in the Senate’ as their next preferred scenario (21%).  Lib/Nat voters are the most likely to regard this scenario as preferable (27%).

The least favoured option amongst respondents is ‘one of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the Greens having the balance of power in the Senate’, with 16% selecting this option.  Greens voters are the most likely to regard this option as the most preferable (63%).

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Lib/Nat majority in the Senate

Sep 19, 2011

Q. If the Liberal and National Parties win the next election, do you think it would be good or bad if they also won a majority in the Senate?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total Good 38% 10% 73% 6%
Total Bad 31% 63% 3% 72%
Very good 17% 3% 35% 0%
Good 21% 7% 38% 6%
Neither good nor bad 18% 18% 16% 15%
Bad 12% 23% 3% 18%
Very bad 19% 40% 0% 54%
Don’t know 13% 8% 8% 7%

Most respondents think that having the Liberal and National Parties holding a majority in the Senate is a good outcome (38%), than those that think it is a bad outcome (31%).

Greens voters are the most likely to regard the outcome as bad (72%), followed by Labor voters (63%).

Male respondents are more likely to regard this outcome as good (45% total good) compared to female respondents (33% total good).

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Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 12, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,847

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 46% 46% 46% 46%
National 4% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 50% 49% 49% 49%
Labor 38.0 31% 32% 30% 32%
Greens 11.8 10% 10% 11% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6 9% 8% 10% 10%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 57% 56% 57% 56%
Labor 50.1% 43% 44% 43% 44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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