Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 27, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,874

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 44% 45% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 47% 46% 47% 48%
Labor 38.0 34% 34% 32% 32%
Greens 11.8 12% 12% 12% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6 8% 8% 9% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 54% 55% 55%
Labor 50.1% 46% 46% 45% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Vote if Kevin Rudd Labor Leader

Jun 27, 2011

Q. If Kevin Rudd was the leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?

First preference Total Gave vote
Liberal 36% 39%
National 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 39% 42%
Labor 41% 45%
Greens 7% 8%
Other/Independent 5% 6%
Don’t know 8%

If Kevin Rudd was leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party) 45% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (up 13%) and 42% to the Liberal or National Parties (down 6%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.

In two party preferred terms, this equates to 53% Labor/47% Liberal/National – a swing of 8% to Labor.

Most of the increased Labor vote comes from Liberal/National voters  – 12% of Liberal/National voters said they would vote Labor if Kevin Rudd was leader.

Groups with the largest shifts to Labor were women, aged under 35, NSW and lower incomes.

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Vote if Malcolm Turnbull Liberal Leader

Jun 27, 2011

Q. If Malcolm Turnbull was the leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?

First preference Total Gave vote
Liberal 44% 49%
National 4% 4%
Total Lib/Nat 48% 53%
Labor 28% 31%
Greens 7% 8%
Other/Independent 7% 8%
Don’t know 10%

If Malcolm Turnbull was leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party) 31% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (down 1%) and 53% to the Liberal or National Parties (up 5%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.

In two party preferred terms, this equates to 41% Labor/59% Liberal/National – a swing of 4% to Liberal/National.

Most of the increased Liberal/National vote comes from Labor voters  – 13% of Labor voters said they would vote Liberal if Malcolm Turnbull was leader.

The group with the largest shift to Liberal/National was people on higher incomes.

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Comparison of Leader Attributes

Jun 27, 2011

Julia Gillard Tony Abbott Difference
Intelligent 73% 61% +12%
Hard-working 75% 75%
A capable leader 42% 45% -3%
Arrogant 48% 60% -12%
Out of touch with ordinary people 60% 57% +3%
Understands the problems facing Australia 44% 48% -4%
Visionary 26% 27% -1%
Superficial 52% 49% +3%
Good in a crisis 41% 40% +1%
Narrow-minded 46% 54% -8%
More honest than most politicians 29% 32% -3%
Trustworthy 30% 32% -2%

Julia Gillard rates substantially higher than Tony Abbott as intelligent (+12%) and lower on the negative attributes of arrogant (-12%) and narrow-minded (-8%). There were only minor differences on the other attributes.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 20, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 2068

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 44% 44% 45%
National 3% 2% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 46% 46% 47%
Labor 38.0 34% 34% 34% 32%
Greens 11.8 12% 12% 12% 12%
Other/Independent 6.6 8% 8% 8% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 53% 53% 54% 55%
Labor 50.1% 47% 47% 46% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 14, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,921

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 43% 44% 44% 44%
National 3% 3% 2% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 47% 46% 46%
Labor 38.0 36% 34% 34% 34%
Greens 11.8 11% 12% 12% 12%
Other/Independent 6.6 7% 8% 8% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 52% 54% 53% 54%
Labor 50.1% 48% 46% 47% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Jun 14, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
31 May

2010

19 Jul 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June
Total approve 41% 52% 45% 43% 51% 48% 41% 37% 41% 34%
Total disapprove 47% 30% 37% 40% 36% 41% 46% 50% 48% 54%
Strongly approve 7% 11% 12% 10% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6%
Approve 34% 41% 33% 33% 43% 39% 34% 30% 34% 28%
Disapprove 25% 17% 21% 24% 24% 25% 22% 25% 26% 29%
Strongly disapprove 22% 13% 16% 16% 12% 16% 24% 25% 22% 25%
Don’t know 12% 18% 19% 17% 14% 11% 13% 13% 11% 13%

34% (down 7%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (up 6%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -7 to -20 over the last 5 weeks.

76% of Labor voters approve (down 10%) and 14% disapprove (up 4%).

By gender – men 34% approve/57% disapprove, women 35% approve/49% disapprove.

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Support for Carbon Pricing

Jun 14, 2011

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

7 March 14 March 28 March 18 April 23 May 30 May Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 35% 38% 34% 39% 41% 38% 38% 60% 19% 68%
Total oppose 48% 49% 51% 49% 44% 48% 49% 28% 72% 18%
Strongly support 9% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 24% 3% 35%
Support 26% 26% 22% 26% 27% 24% 25% 36% 16% 33%
Oppose 19% 17% 19% 15% 15% 19% 19% 17% 20% 10%
Strongly oppose 29% 32% 32% 34% 29% 29% 30% 11% 52% 8%
Don’t know 18% 13% 15% 12% 15% 15% 13% 12% 9% 13%

38% support the Government’s proposed carbon pricing scheme and 49% oppose – no significant change since the question was asked in May. It is supported by 60% of Labor voters and 68% of Greens voters but opposed by 72% of coalition voters.

By age, those aged under 35 split 46% support/39% oppose, and those aged 55+ split 31% support/62% oppose.

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