Firmness of voting intention

Sep 5, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?

 

Total

Gave voting intention

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

 

5 Aug

19 Aug

26 Aug

2 Sep

I will definitely not change my mind

54%

54%

63%

42%

29%

44%

46%

47%

54%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

27%

29%

22%

32%

32%

30%

32%

30%

27%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

15%

14%

12%

18%

30%

21%

17%

18%

15%

Don’t know

4%

3%

3%

9%

9%

5%

5%

4%

4%

54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change.

Other party and independent voters (30%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.

Firmness of voting intention

Sep 2, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?

 

Total

Gave voting intention

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

 

Total

5 Aug

Total

19 Aug

Total

26 Aug

I will definitely not change my mind

54%

57%

63%

39%

20%

44%

46%

47%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

27%

25%

25%

39%

33%

30%

32%

30%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

15%

14%

9%

17%

39%

21%

17%

18%

Don’t know

4%

4%

3%

6%

8%

5%

5%

4%

54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents a significant increase in certainty about voting over the last week.

Other party and independent voters (39%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.

Firmness of voting intention

Aug 19, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?

 

Total

Gave voting intention

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

 

Total

5 Aug

I will definitely not change my mind

46%

45%

56%

27%

16%

44%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

32%

33%

28%

37%

38%

30%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

17%

16%

11%

24%

44%

21%

Don’t know

5%

6%

4%

12%

2%

5%

46% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 32% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 17% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents a firming of voting intention since this question was asked two weeks ago.

Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (24%), other party and independent voters (44%) and aged 25-34 (25%).

Firmness of voting intention

Aug 5, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?

 

Total

Gave voting intention

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

I will definitely not change my mind

44%

40%

59%

23%

18%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

30%

35%

25%

36%

25%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

21%

18%

14%

35%

49%

Don’t know

5%

7%

3%

3%

9%

44% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 30% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 21% say it is quite possible they will change.

Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (35%), other party and independent voters (49%), aged 18-24 (32%) and women (25%).

Firmness of vote

Mar 25, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held in September this year?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

I will definitely not change my mind

43%

40%

57%

18%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

31%

34%

29%

31%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

19%

16%

11%

41%

Don’t know

7%

9%

4%

10%

74% of Labor voters will definitely not or are very unlikely to change their vote compared to 86% of Liberal/National voters but only 49% of Greens voters.

25% of aged 18-34, 20% of aged 35-54 and 11% of aged 55+ say they may change their mind.

Firmness of voting intention

Mar 22, 2010

Q.  Would you describe your vote very firm, fairly firm but might consider another party as campaign develops or not at all firm and might very well consider another party as the campaign develops.

  Total % Federal Vote
Labor Coalition Greens
Very firm 44% 43% 58% 26%
Fairly firm 40% 47% 34% 50%
Not at all firm 14% 9% 7% 18%
Don’t know 2% 1% 1% 6%

Coalition voters were more likely than Labor voters to indicate their voting choice as very firm (58% v 43%).  47% of Labor voters and 50% of Greens voters indicated that their voting choice is fairly firm. 

People aged 65 years and over were more likely to indicate their voting choice as very firm (60%) while those aged 25 – 34 were more likely to indicate their voting choice as fairly firm (47%).  Comments »

Firmness of vote

Feb 2, 2010

Q. Would you say your choice is very firm, pretty firm but you might change your mind, or might you consider another party and leader as the campaign develops?

  Total Labor Coalition Green
Very firm 48% 54% 55% 31%
Pretty firm but I might change my mind 33% 33% 32% 43%
Might consider another party and leader closer to an election 17% 12% 12% 24%
Don’t know 2% 1% 1% 1%

 Just under half (48%) of those surveyed consider their voting choice as ‘very firm’, 33% consider their voting choice as ‘pretty firm but might change my mind’ and 17% ‘might consider another party and leader closer to an election’.

 Labor and Coalition voters were more likely to indicate their voting choice as ‘very firm’ (54% Labor, 55% Coalition), while Green voters were more likely to indicate their choice as ‘pretty firm, but I might change my mind’ (43%).

 People aged 55 years and over were more likely to consider their voting choice ‘very firm’ (60%), people aged 25 – 34 were more likely to indicate it as ‘pretty firm but I might change my mind’ (43%), while 18 – 24 year olds were more likely to indicate they ‘might consider another party and leader closer to an election’ (29%).   Comments »

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