05 September 2013, 050913, firmness of vote, Voting intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?
|
Total Gave voting intention |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
5 Aug |
19 Aug |
26 Aug |
2 Sep |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
54% |
54% |
63% |
42% |
29% |
44% |
46% |
47% |
54% |
||
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
27% |
29% |
22% |
32% |
32% |
30% |
32% |
30% |
27% |
||
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
15% |
14% |
12% |
18% |
30% |
21% |
17% |
18% |
15% |
||
| Don’t know |
4% |
3% |
3% |
9% |
9% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
4% |
54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change.
Other party and independent voters (30%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.
02 September 2013, 020913, firmness of vote, Voting intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?
|
Total Gave voting intention |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
Total 5 Aug |
Total 19 Aug |
Total 26 Aug |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
54% |
57% |
63% |
39% |
20% |
44% |
46% |
47% |
||
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
27% |
25% |
25% |
39% |
33% |
30% |
32% |
30% |
||
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
15% |
14% |
9% |
17% |
39% |
21% |
17% |
18% |
||
| Don’t know |
4% |
4% |
3% |
6% |
8% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents a significant increase in certainty about voting over the last week.
Other party and independent voters (39%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.
19 August 2013, 190813, firmness of vote, Voting intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?
|
Total Gave voting intention |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
Total 5 Aug |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
46% |
45% |
56% |
27% |
16% |
44% |
||
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
32% |
33% |
28% |
37% |
38% |
30% |
||
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
17% |
16% |
11% |
24% |
44% |
21% |
||
| Don’t know |
5% |
6% |
4% |
12% |
2% |
5% |
46% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 32% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 17% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents a firming of voting intention since this question was asked two weeks ago.
Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (24%), other party and independent voters (44%) and aged 25-34 (25%).
050813, 5 August 2013, firmness of vote, swing voters
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?
|
Total Gave voting intention |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
44% |
40% |
59% |
23% |
18% |
|
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
30% |
35% |
25% |
36% |
25% |
|
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
21% |
18% |
14% |
35% |
49% |
|
| Don’t know |
5% |
7% |
3% |
3% |
9% |
44% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 30% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 21% say it is quite possible they will change.
Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (35%), other party and independent voters (49%), aged 18-24 (32%) and women (25%).
25 March 2013, 250313, federal election 2013, firmness of vote, swing voters
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held in September this year?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
43% |
40% |
57% |
18% |
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
31% |
34% |
29% |
31% |
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
19% |
16% |
11% |
41% |
| Don’t know |
7% |
9% |
4% |
10% |
74% of Labor voters will definitely not or are very unlikely to change their vote compared to 86% of Liberal/National voters but only 49% of Greens voters.
25% of aged 18-34, 20% of aged 35-54 and 11% of aged 55+ say they may change their mind.
firmness of vote, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Voting intention
Q. Would you describe your vote very firm, fairly firm but might consider another party as campaign develops or not at all firm and might very well consider another party as the campaign develops.
| Total % | Federal Vote | |||
| Labor | Coalition | Greens | ||
| Very firm | 44% | 43% | 58% | 26% |
| Fairly firm | 40% | 47% | 34% | 50% |
| Not at all firm | 14% | 9% | 7% | 18% |
| Don’t know | 2% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
Coalition voters were more likely than Labor voters to indicate their voting choice as very firm (58% v 43%). 47% of Labor voters and 50% of Greens voters indicated that their voting choice is fairly firm.
People aged 65 years and over were more likely to indicate their voting choice as very firm (60%) while those aged 25 – 34 were more likely to indicate their voting choice as fairly firm (47%). Comments »
Election, firmness of vote, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Voting intention
Q. Would you say your choice is very firm, pretty firm but you might change your mind, or might you consider another party and leader as the campaign develops?
| Total | Labor | Coalition | Green | |
| Very firm | 48% | 54% | 55% | 31% |
| Pretty firm but I might change my mind | 33% | 33% | 32% | 43% |
| Might consider another party and leader closer to an election | 17% | 12% | 12% | 24% |
| Don’t know | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Just under half (48%) of those surveyed consider their voting choice as ‘very firm’, 33% consider their voting choice as ‘pretty firm but might change my mind’ and 17% ‘might consider another party and leader closer to an election’.
Labor and Coalition voters were more likely to indicate their voting choice as ‘very firm’ (54% Labor, 55% Coalition), while Green voters were more likely to indicate their choice as ‘pretty firm, but I might change my mind’ (43%).
People aged 55 years and over were more likely to consider their voting choice ‘very firm’ (60%), people aged 25 – 34 were more likely to indicate it as ‘pretty firm but I might change my mind’ (43%), while 18 – 24 year olds were more likely to indicate they ‘might consider another party and leader closer to an election’ (29%). Comments »