Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 22, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,864 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

(current  figures)

 

4 weeks ago

23/09/13

2 weeks ago

08/10/13

Last week

15/10/13

This week

22/10/13

Liberal

 

41%

40%

41%

41%

National

2%

3%

2%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

43%

43%

43%

44%

Labor

33.4%

37%

35%

35%

34%

Greens

8.6%

9%

9%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

12.4%

11%

12%

12%

11%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

23/09/13

2 weeks ago

08/10/13

Last week

15/10/13

This week

22/10/13

Liberal National

53.4%

51%

52%

52%

53%

Labor

46.6%

49%

48%

48%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 9, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,865 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

(current  figures)

 

4 weeks ago

9/9/13

2 weeks ago

23/9/13

Last week

1/10/13

This week

8/10/13

Liberal

 

45%

41%

40%

40%

National

2%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.5%

45%

43%

43%

43%

Labor

33.4%

35%

37%

36%

35%

Greens

8.7%

8%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

12.4%

12%

11%

12%

12%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

2/9/13

2 weeks ago

16/9/13

Last week

1/10/13

This week

8/10/13

Liberal National

53.4%

52%

52%

Labor

46.6%

48%

48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 24, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,886 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

(current  figures)

 

4 weeks ago

26/8/13

2 weeks ago

9/9/13

Last week

16/9/13

This week

23/9/13

Liberal

 

40%

41%

42%

41%

National

2%

3%

3%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

43%

45%

44%

43%

Labor

33.4%

38%

35%

36%

37%

Greens

8.6%

11%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

12.4%

9%

12%

11%

11%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

26/8/13

2 weeks ago

9/9/13

Last week

16/9/13

This week

23/9/13

Liberal National

53.4%

50%

53%

53%

51%

Labor

46.6%

50%

47%

47%

49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 5, 2013

Q. The Federal Election will be held next weekend on 7 September  – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

The table below shows weekly figures through the election campaign.

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

5/8/13

13/8/13

19/8/13

26/8/13

2/9/13

5/9/13

 

 

Liberal National

43.6%

43%

44%

43%

43%

44%

43%

Labor

38.0%

37%

41%

39%

36%

35%

35%

Greens

11.8%

10%

7%

9%

11%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

11%

9%

8%

10%

11%

12%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

5/8/13

13/8/13

19/8/13

26/8/13

2/9/13

5/9/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

50%

50%

51%

53%

52%

Labor

50.1%

49%

50%

50%

49%

47%

48%

Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 2, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,856 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

5/8/13

2 weeks ago

19/8/13

Last week

26/8/13

This week

2/9/13

Liberal

 

40%

41%

40%

41%

National

3%

3%

2%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

43%

44%

43%

44%

Labor

38.0%

38%

40%

38%

35%

Greens

11.8%

9%

8%

11%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

10%

8%

9%

10%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

5/8/13

2 weeks ago

19/8/13

Last week

26/8/13

This week

2/9/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

50%

50%

52%

Labor

50.1%

49%

50%

50%

48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Party trust to handle issues

Sep 2, 2013

Q.  Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

 

Labor

Liberal

Greens

Don’t know

 

Difference 2 Sep 13

Difference 23 Jul 13

Management of the economy

32%

47%

4%

18%

-15

-15

Ensuring a quality education for all children

42%

32%

8%

19%

+10

+9

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

37%

34%

8%

21%

+3

+1

Protecting the environment

19%

21%

43%

17%

+22

+18

A fair industrial relations system

41%

31%

7%

21%

+10

+11

Political leadership

31%

40%

6%

23%

-9

-7

Addressing climate change

24%

23%

32%

21%

+9

+7

Controlling interest rates

29%

41%

4%

26%

-12

-14

Australian jobs and protection of local industries

38%

36%

5%

21%

-2

-1

Ensuring a quality water supply

22%

30%

22%

26%

-8

-7

Housing affordability

30%

32%

7%

31%

-2

-2

Ensuring a fair taxation system

32%

37%

6%

26%

-5

-2

Security and the war on terrorism

27%

38%

5%

30%

-11

-15

Treatment of asylum seekers

23%

36%

16%

26%

-13

-11

Managing population growth

24%

33%

9%

34%

-9

-13

Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.

The Labor Party is trusted more to handle a quality education for all children (+10) and a fair industrial relations system (+10).

The Liberal Party is trusted more to handle management of the economy (-15), treatment of asylum seekers (-13), controlling interest rates (-12) and security and the war on terrorism (-11).

There have been no major changes since this question was last asked in July.

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 26, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,795 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

29/7/13

2 weeks ago

13/8/13

Last week

19/8/13

This week

26/8/13

Liberal

 

41%

40%

41%

40%

National

3%

3%

3%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

44%

43%

44%

43%

Labor

38.0%

39%

39%

40%

38%

Greens

11.8%

9%

8%

8%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

10%

8%

9%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

29/7/13

2 weeks ago

13/8/13

Last week

19/8/13

This week

26/8/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

51%

50%

50%

Labor

50.1%

49%

49%

50%

50%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 19, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,902 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

22/7/13

2 weeks ago

5/8/13

Last week

13/8/13

This week

19/8/13

Liberal

 

42%

40%

40%

41%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

45%

43%

43%

44%

Labor

38.0%

39%

38%

39%

40%

Greens

11.8%

7%

9%

8%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

10%

10%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

22/7/13

2 weeks ago

5/8/13

Last week

13/8/13

This week

19/8/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

51%

51%

50%

Labor

50.1%

49%

49%

49%

50%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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