Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 11, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

1,912 sample size

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

Liberal 37% 41% 40% 42% 42%
National 3% 3% 3% 2% 2%
Total Lib/Nat 40% 44% 43% 44% 44%
Labor 41% 39% 42% 42% 41%
Greens 11% 10% 9% 8% 8%
Other/Independent 8% 6% 6% 7% 7%

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

Total Lib/Nat 46% 50% 49% 49% 49%
Labor 54% 50% 51% 51% 51%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 4, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

1921 sample size

First preference/leaning to  6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 36% 40% 42% 40% 42%
National 3% 3% 3% 3% 2%
Total Lib/Nat 39% 43% 45% 43% 44%
Labor 43% 39% 40% 42% 42%
Greens 10% 11% 9% 9% 8%
Other/Independent 8% 7% 6% 6% 8%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 46% 49% 50% 49% 49%
Labor 54% 51% 50% 51% 51%

 NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election. Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 27, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

1910 sample size

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week


Liberal 36% 41% 41% 42% 40%
National 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 39% 44% 44% 45% 43%
Labor 43% 38% 39% 40% 42%
Greens 9% 11% 10% 9% 9%
Other/Independent 9% 7% 7% 6% 6%


2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week


Total Lib/Nat 46% 50% 50% 50% 49%
Labor 54% 50% 50% 50% 51%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

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National Broadband Network

Sep 27, 2010

Q. From what you’ve heard, do you favour or oppose the planned national broadband network, or don’t you know enough about it to have an opinion one way or the other?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens


Total favour 56% 81% 31% 72%
Total oppose 18% 3% 38% 4%
Strongly favour 27% 50% 7% 41%
Favour 29% 31% 24% 31%
Oppose 12% 2% 25% 4%
Strongly oppose 6% 1% 13% *
Don’t know 26% 15% 30% 24%

56% of people favour the national broadband network.

81% of Labor voters, compared with 31% of Lib/Nat voters favour the planned national broadband network.

65% of males, compared with 47% of females favour the planned national broadband network.

38% of females, compared with 13% of males don’t know enough about it to have an opinion one way or the other.

Support for the planned national broadband network is highest in the 45-54 years age category (64% favour). Support is lowest in the 65+ yeas age category (47% favour).

63% of Victorian favour the planned national broadband network.

Comments »

Approval of Agreement with the Greens

Sep 13, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the agreement between the Labor Party and the Greens for the Greens to give their support to the Labor Party?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total approve 41% 84% 4% 79%
Total disapprove 46% 7% 90% 10%
Strongly approve 12% 27% 30%
Approve 29% 57% 4% 49%
Disapprove 18% 4% 32% 8%
Strongly disapprove 28% 3% 58% 2%
Don’t know 14% 10% 6% 13%

Respondents were also split over the agreement between the Labor Party and the Greens for the Greens to give their support to the Labor Party – 41% approve and 46% disapprove – with views closely associated with party preferences.

84% of Labor voters and 79% of Greens voters approve while 90% of Coalition voters disapprove (and 58% strongly disapprove). Comments »

Increased Strength of the Greens

Sep 13, 2010

Q. Some people have suggested that the party which increased its strength most in the recent election was the Greens.  Do you think the increased strength of the Greens is good or bad for Australia?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good 45% 68% 19% 96%
Total bad 38% 15% 70% 2%
Very good 13% 18% 2% 60%
Good 32% 50% 17% 36%
Bad 18% 11% 30%
Very bad 20% 4% 40% 2%
Don’t know 17% 17% 11% 3%

45% believe the increased strength of the Greens is good for Australia and 38% bad. 68% of Labor voters think it is good and 70% of Coalition voters think it is bad (40% say very bad). Comments »

Federal Politics – voting intention

Sep 6, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

2,106 sample size

First preference/leaning to  6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 37% 39% 42% 41% 40%
National 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 40% 42% 45% 44% 43%
Labor 43% 41% 38% 38% 39%
Greens 9% 10% 11% 11% 11%
Family First 2% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Other/Independent 7% 5% 4% 5% 6%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 46% 48% 50% 50% 49%
Labor 54% 52% 50% 50% 51%

 NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election. Comments »

Election Poll Wrap – Essential Wins Bragging Rights

Aug 23, 2010

All pollsters performed well in estimating the 2PP vote – all were within 0.3% to 1.3% of the current result. The Essential Report and Morgan Research were closest with 51/49. Newspoll’s 50.2/49.8 was next closest with Nielsen and Galaxy 1.3% off at 52/48.

However, a better way to compare the polls is to look at their first preferences for the major parties. Because the 2PP is based on an assumed distribution of preferences – not on the actual measurement of voting intentions.

Although all polls were within the margin of error, based on estimates for the 3 major party groupings, Essential Report was clearly the closest – their average difference being just 0.5%. Most polls over-estimated the Greens vote and Newspoll underestimated the Labor vote.

This is the first Federal election where public online polling has been used extensively, and the performance of the Essential Report poll is significant in that it has shown this methodology can provide reliable and valid measures of public opinion.

Actual current Newspoll Nielsen Galaxy Morgan Essential
Labor 38.5% 36.2% 39% 38% 38% 38%
Coalition 43.5% 43.2% 41.5% 41% 42% 43%
Greens 11.4% 13.9% 13% 14% 13% 12%
Others 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% 7% 7% 7%
Average difference (Labor, Coalition & Greens) 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.2 0.5
Actual current Newspoll Nielsen Galaxy Morgan Essential
Labor 2PP 50.7% 50.2% 52% 52 51% 51%
Difference 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.3



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