Special Essential Report – Federal Voting Intention by State

Aug 17, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August –  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

First preference

Total NSW Victoria Queensland SA WA
Liberal 40% 42% 37% 42% 39% 47%
National 3% 4% 3% 4% 2%
Coalition 43% 46% 40% 46% 40% 49%
Labor 40% 38% 43% 36% 39% 37%
Greens 10% 7% 11% 10% 12% 10%
Others 7% 8% 6% 8% 9% 5%

2PP

Total NSW Victoria Queensland SA WA
Liberal/National 49% 52% 45% 53% 46% 53%
Labor 51% 48% 55% 47% 54% 47%
Labor 2PP 2007 election 52.7% 53.7% 54.3% 50.4% 52.4% 46.7%
Shift in Labor vote since 2007 election -1.7 -5.7 +0.7 -3.4 +1.6 +0.3

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 9, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August –  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

 2,763 sample size

First preference/leaning to  6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 35% 36% 37% 37% 39%
National 3% 3% 2% 2% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 38% 38% 39% 39% 42%
Labor 44% 41% 41% 40% 41%
Greens 10% 13% 13% 13% 10%
Family First 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Other/Independent 6% 6% 5% 5% 5%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 45% 45% 45% 46% 48%
Labor 55% 55% 55% 54% 52%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.   Comments »

The Senate

Aug 2, 2010

Q. Regardless of which party is elected to Government (i.e. has a majority in the House of Representatives), which of the following Senate options do you think would be best for Australia?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal/ National Vote Greens
The Government has a majority in the Senate 29% 41% 33% 5%
The Opposition party has a majority in the Senate 10% 3% 21% 2%
The Greens and the independents (like Xenophon and Fielding) together hold the balance of power in the Senate 27% 25% 27% 35%
The Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate 12% 14% 3% 50%
Don’t know 22% 18% 16% 7%

 Opinions about the balance of power in the Senate are mixed. 29% prefer the Government to have a majority and 27% prefer the Greens and independents combined to hold the balance of power. Only 12% want the Greens on their own to hold the balance of power and 10% would prefer the opposition to have a majority. Overall, 39% want one of the major parties to have a majority and 39% want minor parties to hold the balance of power.

 85% of Greens voters want the Greens or Greens and independents to hold the balance of power compared to 39% of Labor voters and 30% of Liberal/National voters. Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 19, 2010

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?  

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?  

1,875 sample size

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 35% 37% 36% 36% 37%
National 3% 3% 3% 3% 2%
Total Lib/Nat 38% 40% 39% 38% 39%
Labor 45% 38% 42% 41% 41%
Greens 8% 11% 11% 13% 13%
Family First 2% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Other/Independent 7% 8% 6% 6% 5%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 44% 48% 46% 45% 45%
Labor 56% 52% 54% 55% 55%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.  

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Better Prime Minister

Jul 19, 2010

 Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens   Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott

28 Jun 10

Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott

5 Jul 10

Julia Gillard 50% 91% 8% 71%   47% 49% 53%
Tony Abbott 27% 2% 70% 4%   30% 29% 26%
Don’t know 23% 7% 21% 25%   23% 22% 21%

 50% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 27% prefer Tony Abbott – a slight closing of the gap between the two (from 27% to 23%) since last polled 2 weeks ago.

 Julia Gillard is preferred 91% to 2% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 70% to 8% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 71% to 4%.

 Men prefer Julia Gillard 47%/32% and women 53%/23%. Comments »

Better Prime Minister

Jul 5, 2010

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott

28 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 94% 12% 72% 47% 49%
Tony Abbott 26% 2% 70% 3% 30% 29%
Don’t know 21% 4% 18% 24% 23% 22%

53% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 26% prefer Tony Abbott – somewhat better than Kevin Rudd’s last result of 47%/30% and also better than last week’s figures for Julia Gillard just after she became Prime Minister.

Men prefer Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 48% to 31% and women 57%/22%. Comments »

Party best at

Jul 5, 2010

Q. Which of the following parties – Labor, Liberal or Greens – do you think is the best party when it comes to –

Labor Liberal Greens Don’t know
Representing the interests of Australian working people 52% (+10) 24% (-3) 5% 20%
Handling the economy in a way that best protects working people in Australia 44% (+8) 33% (-2) 3% 20%
Understanding the needs of the average Australian 36% (+7) 24% (-3) 9% 31%
Representing the interests of you and people like you 39% (+7) 31% (-1) 12% 18%
Handling Australia’s economy 37% (+7) 41% (-1) 3% 19%
Standing up to the big multinational corporations 32% (-) 28% (+1) 15% 26%
Having a vision for Australia’s future 32% (+3) 31% (-2) 12% 25%
Taking Australia forward, not backwards 34% (+5) 32% (-2) 9% 25%
Handling Australia’s relations with other countries 34% (+4) 39% (+1) 3% 24%
Dealing with the issue of immigration 23% (+3) 40% (-1) 8% 28%
Being honest and ethical 18% (-1) 22% (+1) 17% 44%
Handling environmental and climate change issues 18% (-1) 18% (-1) 42% 23%

(figures in brackets indicate change since this question was asked 3 weeks ago)

Labor key strengths are representing the interests of Australian working people (52%/24%), handling the economy in a way that best protects working people (44%/33%) and understanding the needs of the average Australian (36%/24%). The Liberal Party’s strengths are dealing with the issue of immigration (40%) and handling Australia’s relations with other countries (39%).

Perceptions of the Labor Party have improved considerably over the last 3 weeks mainly in terms of economic issues and representing the interests and needs of the community. However, there has been little change in Labor’s figures for standing up to the big multinational corporations, being honest and ethical and handling environmental and climate change issues. Comments »

Population by 2050

Jul 5, 2010

Q. It has been estimated that Australia will have a population of 36 million by 2050. Do you think this will be good or bad for Australia?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good 16% 17% 18% 16%
Total bad 55% 50% 63% 58%
Very good 3% 4% 3% 3%
Good 13% 13% 15% 13%
Neither good nor bad 21% 26% 15% 22%
Bad 32% 32% 35% 36%
Very bad 23% 18% 28% 22%
Don’t know 8% 7% 5% 4%

55% believe that having a population of 36 million by 2050 will be bad for Australia – 16% think it will be good for Australia.

The concern about this level of population is fairly similar across voter groups – although Liberal/National voters (63%) are more likely to think it is bad than Labor voters (50%). Comments »