Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 4, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,894 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

5/2/13

2 weeks ago

18/2/13

Last week

25/2/13

This week

4/3/13

Liberal

45%

44%

46%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

47%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

34%

35%

34%

32%

Greens

11.8%

10%

9%

9%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

8%

8%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

54%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

46%

46%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Party that represents blue-collar workers

Feb 25, 2013

Q. Which is the party that best represents the interests of blue-collar workers? 

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Labor

34%

67%

18%

32%

Liberal

21%

5%

39%

2%

Greens

2%

1%

1%

20%

No difference

15%

7%

19%

16%

None of them

10%

6%

10%

17%

Don’t know

18%

13%

14%

13%

34% think that the Labor Party best represents the interests of blue-collar workers and 21% think the Liberal Party does.

43% said none, no difference of did not know.

67% of Labor voters nominated the Labor Party and 39% of Liberal/National voters nominated the Liberal Party.

Senate voting intention

Feb 20, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote in the Senate? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward for the Senate?

If don’t know –

Q. Well which party are you currently leaning to for the Senate?

 

Total Australia

NSW

Queensland

Victoria

SA

WA

Sample

3,755

1,282

744

974

307

352

Labor

33%

32%

32%

37%

31%

31%

Liberal/National

47%

48%

44%

43%

39%

55%

Greens

11%

10%

10%

12%

11%

10%

Katter Party

2%

1%

7%

1%

1%

*

Others/independents

8%

9%

7%

7%

18%

4%

* Based on Interviewing conducted across 4 weeks of Essential Report – 24 January-17 February.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 29, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,895 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

2 weeks ago

14/1/13

Last week

21/01/13

This week

29/01/13

Liberal

44%

44%

44%

National

4%

4%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

36%

36%

35%

Greens

11.8%

8%

9%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

8%

7%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

54%

54%

Labor

50.1%

46%

46%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

The past year – political parties

Dec 17, 2012

Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?

 

Total good

(Dec 10)

Total bad

(Dec 10)

Total good

(Dec 11)

Total bad

(Dec 11)

Total good

(Dec 12)

Total bad

(Dec 12)

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

Don’t know

The Liberal Party

33%

27%

27%

30%

19%

40%

5%

14%

34%

27%

13%

7%

The Labor Party

21%

47%

16%

53%

15%

57%

4%

11%

21%

30%

27%

6%

The Greens

42%

21%

33%

29%

14%

44%

2%

12%

32%

23%

21%

12%

The independents

na

na

na

na

13%

33%

2%

11%

39%

18%

15%

14%


 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

 

Total good

Total bad

Total good

Total bad

Total good

Total bad

Total good

Total bad

The Liberal Party

19%

40%

9%

62%

37%

19%

6%

69%

The Labor Party

15%

57%

37%

35%

4%

80%

23%

51%

The Greens

14%

44%

20%

31%

6%

64%

48%

9%

The independents

13%

33%

18%

24%

9%

50%

31%

17%

Respondents were more likely to think it has been a relatively bad year for all political parties. 57% think it has been a bad year for the Labor Party and 40% think it has been a bad year for the Liberal Party.

Among their own voters 48% (down 22%) think it has been a good year for the Greens , 37% (down 8%) the Liberal Party and 37% (up 2%) the Labor Party.

 

Compared to last year’s results, all parties figures have declined – The Greens net +4% to -30%, Liberals from net -3% to -21% and Labor from net -37% to -42%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 3, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,799respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

7/11/12

2 weeks ago

19/11/12

Last week

26/11/12

This week

3/12/12

Liberal

43%

43%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

46%

46%

47%

47%

Labor

38.0%

37%

36%

36%

37%

Greens

11.8%

9%

10%

10%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

8%

7%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

53%

53%

53%

53%

Labor

50.1%

47%

47%

47%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 26, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size =  1,832 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

29/10/12

2 weeks ago

12/11/12

Last week

19/11/12

This week

Liberal

44%

42%

43%

44%

National

4%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

45%

46%

47%

Labor

38.0%

36%

37%

36%

36%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

8%

9%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

52%

53%

53%

Labor

50.1%

46%

48%

47%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Party trust to handle important election issues

Nov 19, 2012

Q.  Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

 

ALP

Libs

Greens

Don’t know

Difference
19
Nov 12

Difference
18
Jun 12

Management of the economy

31%

45%

2%

22%

-14

-18

Ensuring a quality education for all children

38%

33%

4%

24%

+5

-2

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

32%

35%

7%

25%

-3

-6

Protecting the environment

19%

22%

38%

21%

+16

+17

A fair industrial relations system

41%

32%

4%

23%

+9

+6

Political leadership

26%

38%

6%

30%

-12

-16

Addressing climate change

22%

23%

32%

24%

+9

+7

Controlling interest rates

28%

39%

3%

30%

-11

-18

Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries

34%

36%

4%

27%

-2

-6

Ensuring a quality water supply

21%

28%

23%

27%

-7

-12

Housing affordability

28%

33%

5%

33%

-5

-11

Ensuring a fair taxation system

30%

39%

4%

27%

-9

-10

Security and the war on terrorism

25%

40%

4%

31%

-15

-22

Treatment of asylum seekers

20%

38%

13%

29%

-18

-20

Managing population growth

22%

37%

6%

35%

-15

-19

Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.

Labor leads the Liberal Party on ensuring a quality education for all children and a fair industrial relations system. The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership, security and the war on terrorism, treatment of asylum seekers and managing population growth.

There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals on ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries. Since June, there has been a shift in Labor’s favour on most issues – especially, ensuring a quality education for all children, controlling interest rates, housing affordability and security and the war on terrorism.

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