Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 30, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,837 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2/7/12

2 weeks ago

16/7/12

Last week

23/7/12

This week

30/7/12

Liberal

45%

46%

45%

45%

National

3%

3%

4%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

32%

31%

33%

33%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

57%

56%

55%

Labor

50.1%

44%

43%

44%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Feral cats amongst the carbon canaries

Jul 21, 2012

Tony Maher over at the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union has a piece in the Daily Telegraph worth reading.

Feral cats amongst the carbon canaries

TONY MAHER Tony Maher is Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union national president.

It’s a truism that Labor has done a dismal job selling its carbon pricing scheme. But that doesn’t tell the full story of how the 2012 carbon tax became so politically toxic. A key ingredient is the widely held perception that it is a Greens scheme developed under duress, with Labor held hostage to its Birkenstock-wearing overlords.

Most Australians in the suburbs and regions think if the Greens support something it must be bad for jobs, cost too much and be no fun at all.

Actually, the carbon pricing scheme of 2012 is substantially the same as the carbon pollution reduction scheme proposed by Labor, supported by the Liberal Party under Malcolm Turnbull and blocked by the Greens in 2009. If anything, the 2012 version is browner than its predecessor.

As the weeks roll on after Doomsday (July 1), the carbon price scheme is proving well designed and is working exactly as intended. It is not causing job losses because it was carefully designed not to cause job losses.

Billions of dollars have been allocated as free permits to heavy industry, precisely because the objective is to help keep them in business while investors adjust. No sector has been overlooked.

Likewise, the carbon pricing scheme has not fed into excessive price rises. The tiny price rises are exactly those predicted by the government.

This is not good luck. It is a result of careful design to cushion consumers and businesses. Labor listened to businesses, welfare groups and unions — designing tax cuts and welfare payments accordingly, while excluding petrol from any impost.

It’s no surprise that Tony Abbott can’t find a price increase horror story.

A question raised by many is — if business and consumers are both wrapped in cotton wool, what’s the point?

The point is it is a signal to investors making decisions today on assets that will last 20 to 50 years. It is not designed to force consumers to use significantly less energy — there will be other energy efficiency programs for that.

It is not designed to close heavy industry. It gives heavy industry — our mines, smelters and factories — an incentive to improve performance over time. It will drive investment in more efficient and lower emission products and processes.

The carbon tax is structural economic change — a change in the market which is gradual and smooth — by design.

The scheme proposed by Kevin Rudd in 2009 was substantially the same.

Both schemes were an emissions trading schemes with a fixed price at the start — oneyear fixed price in 2009 and three-years fixed price in 2012. Both schemes provided industry assistance through free permits.

In fact, the 2012 version includes more assistance to heavy industry. The 2009 scheme allocated $7.3 billion to power generators over 10 years. The 2012 scheme allocates $5.5 billion over five years.

The 2012 scheme includes an extra $300 million for the steel industry. It also gives more to coal — up from $750 million to assist with capturing fugitive methane emissions in 2009 compared to $1.3 billion in 2012.

Both schemes have the same targets — a 5 per cent reduction being the default. Targets supported by Labor and the Coalition but strongly opposed by the Greens are locked in by the 2012 scheme.

The 2009 scheme only excluded petrol for three years. The package the Greens voted for excludes petrol indefinitely.

The Greens point out that the Clean Energy Finance Corporation is an important new development. It is. It is a great new industry policy supporting manufacturing and that’s why unions and industry lobbied for it. This wasn’t the reason the Greens gave when rejecting the CPRS in 2009.

In 2009 there was bipartisan support for an emissions trading scheme. Tony Abbott wasn’t the leader as the Coalition contributed to the scheme’s design. It was the Greens who stopped it in the Senate, wanting higher targets and less compensation to heavy industry.

In 2012 they supported a virtually identical scheme, with the same targets and more assistance to heavy industry.

The Greens intransigence in 2009 has had profound knockon effects. The 2012 scheme, fundamentally the same but understood by the public as a Greens-negotiated deal, has fuelled the perception it is an extreme measure. It has helped Abbott turn an economically responsible, modest carbon scheme with public support into a hydra-headed monster.

No matter how effectively Greg Combet explains the scheme — and when he gets the chance he does it very well — the Greens factor is a barrier to popular acceptance.

Selling the carbon tax is hard. Selling the Greens is impossible.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 9, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,876 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

12/6/12

2 weeks ago

25/6/12

Last week

2/7/12

This week

9/7/12

Liberal

46%

46%

45%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

4%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

32%

33%

32%

31%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

8%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 25, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,853 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

28/5/12

2 weeks ago

12/6/12

Last week

18/6/12

This week

25/6/12

Liberal

47%

46%

46%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

50%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

32%

33%

33%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

9%

8%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

57%

56%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

43%

44%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 18, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,842 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

21/5/12

2 weeks ago

4/6/12

Last week

12/6/12

This week

18/6/12

Liberal

46%

47%

46%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

50%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

33%

32%

33%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

7%

9%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

State of the Economy

May 28, 2012

Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

35%

56%

24%

54%

Total poor

29%

13%

42%

18%

Very good

6%

13%

2%

17%

Good

29%

43%

22%

37%

Neither good nor poor

33%

30%

33%

28%

Poor

20%

9%

29%

14%

Very poor

9%

4%

13%

4%

Don’t know

2%

2%

*

1%

35% described the economy as good or very good and 29% poor/very poor – 33% said it was neither.

Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were aged 18-34 (41%) and people with incomes over $1,600pw (44%).

Those most likely to think the economy was poor/very poor were aged 55+ (34%) and people with incomes of $600-$1,000pw (36%).

Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

May 14, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,904 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

16/4/12

2 weeks ago

30/4/12

Last week

7/5/12

This week

14/5/12

Liberal

45%

46%

47%

47%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

50%

50%

50%

Labor

38.0%

31%

31%

29%

30%

Greens

11.8%

11%

11%

11%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

57%

58%

57%

Labor

50.1%

44%

43%

42%

43%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

May 7, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,909 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

10/4/12

2 weeks ago

23/4/12

Last week

30/4/12

This week

7/5/12

Liberal

47%

45%

46%

47%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

50%

49%

50%

50%

Labor

38.0%

31%

31%

31%

29%

Greens

11.8%

11%

11%

11%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

57%

56%

57%

58%

Labor

50.1%

43%

44%

43%

42%

 

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Comments »

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