Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 23, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,980 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

24/6/13

2 weeks ago

8/7/13

Last week

15/7/13

This week

23/7/13

Liberal

 

44%

42%

42%

42%

National

3%

4%

4%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

46%

46%

45%

Labor

38.0%

34%

38%

39%

39%

Greens

11.8%

8%

8%

7%

7%

Other/Independent

6.6%

11%

7%

8%

9%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

24/6/13

2 weeks ago

8/7/13

Last week

15/7/13

This week

23/7/13

Liberal National

49.9%

55%

52%

52%

51%

Labor

50.1%

45%

48%

48%

49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Senate voting intention

Feb 20, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote in the Senate? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward for the Senate?

If don’t know –

Q. Well which party are you currently leaning to for the Senate?

 

Total Australia

NSW

Queensland

Victoria

SA

WA

Sample

3,755

1,282

744

974

307

352

Labor

33%

32%

32%

37%

31%

31%

Liberal/National

47%

48%

44%

43%

39%

55%

Greens

11%

10%

10%

12%

11%

10%

Katter Party

2%

1%

7%

1%

1%

*

Others/independents

8%

9%

7%

7%

18%

4%

* Based on Interviewing conducted across 4 weeks of Essential Report – 24 January-17 February.

The past year – political parties

Dec 17, 2012

Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?

 

Total good

(Dec 10)

Total bad

(Dec 10)

Total good

(Dec 11)

Total bad

(Dec 11)

Total good

(Dec 12)

Total bad

(Dec 12)

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

Don’t know

The Liberal Party

33%

27%

27%

30%

19%

40%

5%

14%

34%

27%

13%

7%

The Labor Party

21%

47%

16%

53%

15%

57%

4%

11%

21%

30%

27%

6%

The Greens

42%

21%

33%

29%

14%

44%

2%

12%

32%

23%

21%

12%

The independents

na

na

na

na

13%

33%

2%

11%

39%

18%

15%

14%


 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

 

Total good

Total bad

Total good

Total bad

Total good

Total bad

Total good

Total bad

The Liberal Party

19%

40%

9%

62%

37%

19%

6%

69%

The Labor Party

15%

57%

37%

35%

4%

80%

23%

51%

The Greens

14%

44%

20%

31%

6%

64%

48%

9%

The independents

13%

33%

18%

24%

9%

50%

31%

17%

Respondents were more likely to think it has been a relatively bad year for all political parties. 57% think it has been a bad year for the Labor Party and 40% think it has been a bad year for the Liberal Party.

Among their own voters 48% (down 22%) think it has been a good year for the Greens , 37% (down 8%) the Liberal Party and 37% (up 2%) the Labor Party.

 

Compared to last year’s results, all parties figures have declined – The Greens net +4% to -30%, Liberals from net -3% to -21% and Labor from net -37% to -42%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 6, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,832 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

9/7/12

2 weeks ago

23/7/12

Last week

30/7/12

This week

6/8/12

Liberal

46%

45%

45%

46%

National

4%

4%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

31%

33%

33%

33%

Greens

11.8%

11%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

8%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

55%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

45%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 16, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,857 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

18/6/12

2 weeks ago

2/7/12

Last week

9/7/12

This week

16/7/12

Liberal

46%

45%

46%

46%

National

3%

3%

4%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

32%

31%

31%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

11%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

9%

9%

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

56%

57%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

44%

43%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Federal politics – voting intention

May 21, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,918 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

23/4/12

2 weeks ago

7/5/12

Last week

14/5/12

This week

21/5/12

Liberal

45%

47%

47%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

50%

50%

49%

Labor

38.0%

31%

29%

30%

33%

Greens

11.8%

11%

11%

11%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

58%

57%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

42%

43%

44

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Performance of the Independents

Oct 10, 2011

Q. Regardless of how you vote in federal elections, how would you rate the performance of the following Independent MPs in federal parliament?

Total Good Total Bad Very Good Good Bad Very Bad Don’t know
Rob Oakeshott 23% 34% 3% 20% 16% 18% 42%
Tony Windsor 23% 32% 4% 19% 18% 14% 44%
Andrew Wilkie 24% 34% 3% 21% 16% 18% 42%
Bob Katter 27% 36% 6% 21% 19% 17% 37%

Respondents struggle to rate the performance of the Independents, with the most common response being ‘don’t know’.  However, in the case of Bob Katter, respondents are more likely to have a view, with the ‘don’t knows’ dropping 5 points from about 42% to 37% in Katter’s case.

The performance of Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie are rated as more or less the same with about 23% of respondents regarding their performance as good and 33% regarding it as bad. Bob Katter came out on top by a fraction, with 27% rating his performance as good.

However, in all instances, more respondents rate the performance of the Independents as bad, with Katter also earning the most criticism (36% bad).

Ratings do not vary greatly by state or territory, save that respondents in Queensland are significantly more likely to rate the performance of Bob Katter as good (38% total good). Respondents in NSW are somewhat more likely to rate the performance of Tony Windsor as good (27% total good).

Comments »

Independents and Greens holding Balance of Power

Oct 10, 2011

Q. Do you think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good or bad for Australia?

7 Mar 11 6 Jun 2011 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good 27% 28% 22% 32% 9% 72%
Total bad 41% 39% 50% 30% 76% 7%
Very good 7% 9% 5% 8% 1% 30%
Good 20% 19% 17% 24% 8% 42%
Neither good nor bad 33% 33% 28% 38% 15% 21%
Bad 22% 21% 23% 22% 27% 5%
Very bad 19% 18% 27% 8% 49% 2%

The majority of respondents seem to regard the independents and the Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament as bad for Australia (50% bad), whilst 22% regard it is good for the country.

Enthusiasm for the independents and the Greens in federal Parliament fell 6 points since last polled in June 2011, from 28% to 22% of respondents regarding it as good for the country.

At the same time, disdain for the situation has risen considerably since June 2011: from 39% to 50% this time around.

Labor voters are almost equally split on the issue of the independents and Greens holding the balance of power, with 32% regarding it to be a good thing, and 30% viewing it as bad.

Lib/Nat voters are the most likely to regard the situation as bad (76%), whereas Greens voters are by far the most likely to regard it as good (72%).

Respondents aged 18-24 (38%) and 25-34 (33%) were significantly more likely to regard the situation as good.

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