23 July 2013, 230713, 2PP, Greens, Independents, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,980 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 24/6/13 |
2 weeks ago 8/7/13 |
Last week 15/7/13 |
This week 23/7/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
42% |
42% |
42% |
|
| National |
3% |
4% |
4% |
3% |
||
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
46% |
46% |
45% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
38% |
39% |
39% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
11% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 24/6/13 |
2 weeks ago 8/7/13 |
Last week 15/7/13 |
This week 23/7/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
55% |
52% |
52% |
51% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
48% |
48% |
49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
20 February 2013, 200213, Greens, Independents, katter party, Labor, Liberal, senate voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote in the Senate? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward for the Senate?
If don’t know –
Q. Well which party are you currently leaning to for the Senate?
|
Total Australia |
NSW |
Queensland |
Victoria |
SA |
WA |
|
| Sample |
3,755 |
1,282 |
744 |
974 |
307 |
352 |
| Labor |
33% |
32% |
32% |
37% |
31% |
31% |
| Liberal/National |
47% |
48% |
44% |
43% |
39% |
55% |
| Greens |
11% |
10% |
10% |
12% |
11% |
10% |
| Katter Party |
2% |
1% |
7% |
1% |
1% |
* |
| Others/independents |
8% |
9% |
7% |
7% |
18% |
4% |
* Based on Interviewing conducted across 4 weeks of Essential Report – 24 January-17 February.
17 December 2012, 171212, Greens, Independents, Labor, Liberal
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?
|
Total good (Dec 10) |
Total bad (Dec 10) |
Total good (Dec 11) |
Total bad (Dec 11) |
Total good (Dec 12) |
Total bad (Dec 12) |
Very good |
Good |
Neither good nor bad |
Bad |
Very bad |
Don’t know |
|
| The Liberal Party |
33% |
27% |
27% |
30% |
19% |
40% |
5% |
14% |
34% |
27% |
13% |
7% |
| The Labor Party |
21% |
47% |
16% |
53% |
15% |
57% |
4% |
11% |
21% |
30% |
27% |
6% |
| The Greens |
42% |
21% |
33% |
29% |
14% |
44% |
2% |
12% |
32% |
23% |
21% |
12% |
| The independents |
na |
na |
na |
na |
13% |
33% |
2% |
11% |
39% |
18% |
15% |
14% |
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|||||
|
Total good |
Total bad |
Total good |
Total bad |
Total good |
Total bad |
Total good |
Total bad |
|
| The Liberal Party |
19% |
40% |
9% |
62% |
37% |
19% |
6% |
69% |
| The Labor Party |
15% |
57% |
37% |
35% |
4% |
80% |
23% |
51% |
| The Greens |
14% |
44% |
20% |
31% |
6% |
64% |
48% |
9% |
| The independents |
13% |
33% |
18% |
24% |
9% |
50% |
31% |
17% |
Respondents were more likely to think it has been a relatively bad year for all political parties. 57% think it has been a bad year for the Labor Party and 40% think it has been a bad year for the Liberal Party.
Among their own voters 48% (down 22%) think it has been a good year for the Greens , 37% (down 8%) the Liberal Party and 37% (up 2%) the Labor Party.
Compared to last year’s results, all parties figures have declined – The Greens net +4% to -30%, Liberals from net -3% to -21% and Labor from net -37% to -42%.
06 August 2012, 060812, 2PP, ALP, first preference vote, Greens, Independents, Labor Party, Liberals, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,832 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 9/7/12 |
2 weeks ago 23/7/12 |
Last week 30/7/12 |
This week 6/8/12 |
| Liberal |
|
46% |
45% |
45% |
46% |
| National |
|
4% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
33% |
33% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
56% |
55% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
44% |
45% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
16 July 2012, 160712, 2PP, federal politics voting intention, first preference vote, Greens party, Independents, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,857 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 18/6/12 |
2 weeks ago 2/7/12 |
Last week 9/7/12 |
This week 16/7/12 |
| Liberal |
46% |
45% |
46% |
46% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
4% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
32% |
31% |
31% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
11% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
57% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
21 May 12, 210512, Federal Election, federal politics voting intention, Independents, Labor Party, Liberal Party, The Greens
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,918 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 23/4/12 |
2 weeks ago 7/5/12 |
Last week 14/5/12 |
This week 21/5/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
29% |
30% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
58% |
57% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
42% |
43% |
44 |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Andrew Wilkie, Bob Katter, ER, Essential Report, Independents, Performance of Independents, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor
Q. Regardless of how you vote in federal elections, how would you rate the performance of the following Independent MPs in federal parliament?
| Total Good | Total Bad | Very Good | Good | Bad | Very Bad | Don’t know | ||
| Rob Oakeshott | 23% | 34% | 3% | 20% | 16% | 18% | 42% | |
| Tony Windsor | 23% | 32% | 4% | 19% | 18% | 14% | 44% | |
| Andrew Wilkie | 24% | 34% | 3% | 21% | 16% | 18% | 42% | |
| Bob Katter | 27% | 36% | 6% | 21% | 19% | 17% | 37% |
Respondents struggle to rate the performance of the Independents, with the most common response being ‘don’t know’. However, in the case of Bob Katter, respondents are more likely to have a view, with the ‘don’t knows’ dropping 5 points from about 42% to 37% in Katter’s case.
The performance of Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie are rated as more or less the same with about 23% of respondents regarding their performance as good and 33% regarding it as bad. Bob Katter came out on top by a fraction, with 27% rating his performance as good.
However, in all instances, more respondents rate the performance of the Independents as bad, with Katter also earning the most criticism (36% bad).
Ratings do not vary greatly by state or territory, save that respondents in Queensland are significantly more likely to rate the performance of Bob Katter as good (38% total good). Respondents in NSW are somewhat more likely to rate the performance of Tony Windsor as good (27% total good).
balance of power, ER, Essential Report, Greens, Independents, Parliament, power in Parliament
Q. Do you think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good or bad for Australia?
| 7 Mar 11 | 6 Jun 2011 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total good | 27% | 28% | 22% | 32% | 9% | 72% |
| Total bad | 41% | 39% | 50% | 30% | 76% | 7% |
| Very good | 7% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 30% |
| Good | 20% | 19% | 17% | 24% | 8% | 42% |
| Neither good nor bad | 33% | 33% | 28% | 38% | 15% | 21% |
| Bad | 22% | 21% | 23% | 22% | 27% | 5% |
| Very bad | 19% | 18% | 27% | 8% | 49% | 2% |
The majority of respondents seem to regard the independents and the Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament as bad for Australia (50% bad), whilst 22% regard it is good for the country.
Enthusiasm for the independents and the Greens in federal Parliament fell 6 points since last polled in June 2011, from 28% to 22% of respondents regarding it as good for the country.
At the same time, disdain for the situation has risen considerably since June 2011: from 39% to 50% this time around.
Labor voters are almost equally split on the issue of the independents and Greens holding the balance of power, with 32% regarding it to be a good thing, and 30% viewing it as bad.
Lib/Nat voters are the most likely to regard the situation as bad (76%), whereas Greens voters are by far the most likely to regard it as good (72%).
Respondents aged 18-24 (38%) and 25-34 (33%) were significantly more likely to regard the situation as good.