Balance of Power

Jun 6, 2011

Q. Do you think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good or bad for Australia?

7 Mar 11 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good 27% 28% 40% 11% 77%
Total bad 41% 39% 19% 68% 6%
Very good 7% 9% 11% 3% 40%
Good 20% 19% 29% 8% 37%
Neither good nor bad 33% 33% 41% 21% 17%
Bad 22% 21% 13% 33% 5%
Very bad 19% 18% 6% 35% 1%

28% of respondents think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good for Australia and 39% bad. This is very similar to the results obtained for this question in March. The only substantial change is that Labor voters are now more positive – in March they responded 33% good/25% bad.

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Balance of Power

Mar 7, 2011

Q. Do you think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good or bad for Australia?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good 27% 33% 12% 83%
Total bad 41% 25% 66% 2%
Very good 7% 8% 1% 34%
Good 20% 25% 11% 49%
Neither good nor bad 33% 41% 22% 15%
Bad 22% 18% 29% 2%
Very bad 19% 7% 37%

27% think that the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good for Australia and 41% think it has been bad.

Greens voters overwhelmingly think it has been good (83%) while two-thirds of Coalition voters think it has been bad. Labor voters are somewhat split – 33% good/25% bad/41% neither. Older respondents were more likely to think it was bad – those aged under 35 split 32% good/29% bad while those aged 55+ split 21% good/52% bad.

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Independents in Parliament

Sep 20, 2010

Q. Do you think there should be more or fewer independents in Federal Parliament?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Should be more 29% 29% 21% 58% 65%
Should be fewer 26% 21% 40% 5% 7%
About the right number 23% 32% 19% 19% 14%
Don’t know 22% 19% 20% 17% 14%

Respondents are divided over whether there should be more or fewer independents in Parliament – 29% say more, 26% fewer and 23% think there is about the right number. 40% of Coalition voters think there should be fewer and a majority of Greens and other voters think there should be more.

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Approval of Independents Decisions

Sep 13, 2010

Q. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the decisions the independents have reached about which party they will support?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote ind/other
Total approve 41% 82% 5% 72% 40%
Total disapprove 45% 6% 89% 14% 34%
Strongly approve 12% 29% * 15% 3%
Approve 29% 53% 5% 57% 37%
Disapprove 20% 5% 35% 11% 18%
Strongly disapprove 25% 1% 54% 3% 16%
Don’t know 14% 12% 5% 14% 27%

 Respondents were split over the independents’ decision about the party to support – 41% approve and 45% disapprove.

82% of Labor voters and 72% of Greens voters approve while 89% of Coalition voters disapprove (and 54% strongly disapprove). Voters for independents and other parties split 40% approve/34% disapprove. Comments »

Power of the Independents

Sep 13, 2010

Q. Do you think the independents will hold too much power in the next Federal Government?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote ind/other
Yes 44% 36% 63% 21% 16%
No 36% 40% 27% 57% 64%
Don’t know 20% 25% 10% 22% 20%

Overall, respondents more likely to think the independents will hold too much power in the next Federal; Government – 44% agree and 36% disagree. 63% of Coalition voters agree but Labor voters are split 36% yes/40% no.

Greens voters and other voters are more likely to think the independents will not hold too much power. Comments »

Election Poll Wrap – Essential Wins Bragging Rights

Aug 23, 2010

All pollsters performed well in estimating the 2PP vote – all were within 0.3% to 1.3% of the current result. The Essential Report and Morgan Research were closest with 51/49. Newspoll’s 50.2/49.8 was next closest with Nielsen and Galaxy 1.3% off at 52/48.

However, a better way to compare the polls is to look at their first preferences for the major parties. Because the 2PP is based on an assumed distribution of preferences – not on the actual measurement of voting intentions.

Although all polls were within the margin of error, based on estimates for the 3 major party groupings, Essential Report was clearly the closest – their average difference being just 0.5%. Most polls over-estimated the Greens vote and Newspoll underestimated the Labor vote.

This is the first Federal election where public online polling has been used extensively, and the performance of the Essential Report poll is significant in that it has shown this methodology can provide reliable and valid measures of public opinion.

Actual current Newspoll Nielsen Galaxy Morgan Essential
Labor 38.5% 36.2% 39% 38% 38% 38%
Coalition 43.5% 43.2% 41.5% 41% 42% 43%
Greens 11.4% 13.9% 13% 14% 13% 12%
Others 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% 7% 7% 7%
Average difference (Labor, Coalition & Greens) 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.2 0.5
Actual current Newspoll Nielsen Galaxy Morgan Essential
Labor 2PP 50.7% 50.2% 52% 52 51% 51%
Difference 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.3



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