Vote if Malcolm Turnbull Liberal Leader

Jun 27, 2011

Q. If Malcolm Turnbull was the leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?

First preference Total Gave vote
Liberal 44% 49%
National 4% 4%
Total Lib/Nat 48% 53%
Labor 28% 31%
Greens 7% 8%
Other/Independent 7% 8%
Don’t know 10%

If Malcolm Turnbull was leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party) 31% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (down 1%) and 53% to the Liberal or National Parties (up 5%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.

In two party preferred terms, this equates to 41% Labor/59% Liberal/National – a swing of 4% to Liberal/National.

Most of the increased Liberal/National vote comes from Labor voters  – 13% of Labor voters said they would vote Liberal if Malcolm Turnbull was leader.

The group with the largest shift to Liberal/National was people on higher incomes.

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Attributes to describe the Prime Minister

Jun 27, 2011

Q.  Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard?

5 Jul 10 4 Oct 10 7 Feb 11 27 Jun 11 Difference
Intelligent 87% 81% 75% 73% -2%
Hard-working 89% 82% 76% 75% -1%
A capable leader 72% 59% 52% 42% -10%
Arrogant 37% 39% 44% 48% +4%
Out of touch with ordinary people 35% 44% 50% 60% +10%
Understands the problems facing Australia 68% 55% 52% 44% -8%
Visionary 48% 38% 30% 26% -4%
Superficial 51% 52% +1%
Good in a crisis 61% 46% 46% 41% -5%
Narrow-minded 28% 35% 43% 46% +3%
More honest than most politicians 45% 37% 37% 29% -8%
Trustworthy 49% 42% 40% 30% -10%

Julia Gillard’s key attributes were hard-working (75%), intelligent (73%) and out of touch with ordinary people (60%).

Major changes since this question was asked in February were an increase of 10% for out of touch (to 60%) and decreases for a capable leader (down 10% to 42%) and trustworthy (down 10% to 30%).

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Attributes to describe the Opposition Leader

Jun 27, 2011

Q.  Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 10 4 Oct 10 7 Feb 11 27 Jun 11 Change
Intelligent 70% 71% 64% 61% -3%
Hard-working 76% 78% 72% 75% +3%
A capable leader 47% 52% 48% 45% -3%
Arrogant 59% 60% 58% 60% +2%
Out of touch with ordinary people 57% 53% 54% 57% +3%
Understands the problems facing Australia 50% 53% 50% 48% -2%
Visionary 32% 31% 27% 27%
Superficial 45% 49% +4%
Good in a crisis 40% 42% 41% 40% -1%
Narrow-minded 56% 53% 51% 54% +3%
More honest than most politicians 33% 32% 31% 32% +1%
Trustworthy 33% 35% 34% 32% -2%

Tony Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (75%), intelligent (61%) and arrogant (60%).

There have only been minor changes since this question was asked in February.

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Comparison of Leader Attributes

Jun 27, 2011

Julia Gillard Tony Abbott Difference
Intelligent 73% 61% +12%
Hard-working 75% 75%
A capable leader 42% 45% -3%
Arrogant 48% 60% -12%
Out of touch with ordinary people 60% 57% +3%
Understands the problems facing Australia 44% 48% -4%
Visionary 26% 27% -1%
Superficial 52% 49% +3%
Good in a crisis 41% 40% +1%
Narrow-minded 46% 54% -8%
More honest than most politicians 29% 32% -3%
Trustworthy 30% 32% -2%

Julia Gillard rates substantially higher than Tony Abbott as intelligent (+12%) and lower on the negative attributes of arrogant (-12%) and narrow-minded (-8%). There were only minor differences on the other attributes.

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Is Australia a Better/Worse Place?

Jun 22, 2011

Q. Do you think Australia has become a better or worse place in the year since Julia Gillard became PM? (This question has been commissioned by Network Ten)

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Men Women Age

18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged 55+
A better place 13% 32% 4% 22% 16% 11% 16% 11% 11%
A worse place 51% 17% 82% 27% 57% 46% 42% 53% 61%
A much better place 3% 9% 1% 2% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3%
A better place 10% 23% 3% 20% 11% 9% 14% 8% 8%
A worse place 32% 14% 47% 24% 34% 30% 31% 33% 32%
A much worse place 19% 3% 35% 3% 23% 16% 11% 20% 29%
No change 29% 44% 12% 46% 24% 34% 30% 30% 25%
Don’t know 7% 6% 3% 5% 5% 9% 12% 6% 3%

Half the people surveyed (51%) think Australia has become a worse place in the year since Julia Gillard became PM. 13% think it has become a better place and 29% say there has been no change.

82% of Liberal/National voters think it has become a worse place while 46% of Greens voters and 44% of Labor voters think there has been no change.

The most negative groups were men (57% worse) and those aged 55+ (61% worse).

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Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 14, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,921

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 43% 44% 44% 44%
National 3% 3% 2% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 47% 46% 46%
Labor 38.0 36% 34% 34% 34%
Greens 11.8 11% 12% 12% 12%
Other/Independent 6.6 7% 8% 8% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 52% 54% 53% 54%
Labor 50.1% 48% 46% 47% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Jun 14, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
31 May

2010

19 Jul 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June
Total approve 41% 52% 45% 43% 51% 48% 41% 37% 41% 34%
Total disapprove 47% 30% 37% 40% 36% 41% 46% 50% 48% 54%
Strongly approve 7% 11% 12% 10% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6%
Approve 34% 41% 33% 33% 43% 39% 34% 30% 34% 28%
Disapprove 25% 17% 21% 24% 24% 25% 22% 25% 26% 29%
Strongly disapprove 22% 13% 16% 16% 12% 16% 24% 25% 22% 25%
Don’t know 12% 18% 19% 17% 14% 11% 13% 13% 11% 13%

34% (down 7%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (up 6%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -7 to -20 over the last 5 weeks.

76% of Labor voters approve (down 10%) and 14% disapprove (up 4%).

By gender – men 34% approve/57% disapprove, women 35% approve/49% disapprove.

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Better Prime Minister

Jun 14, 2011

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 2010 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 47% 48% 44% 42% 43% 41% 84% 7% 65% 47%
Tony Abbott 26% 32% 31% 33% 33% 35% 36% 5% 73% 11% 30%
Don’t know 21% 21% 20% 23% 24% 22% 24% 11% 20% 24% 23%

41% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 3% on last month’s figures (from +8% to +5%).

Men are split 40%/40% and women favour Julia Gillard 41%/32%.

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