Julia, Blokes and the Bradley Effect

Nov 23, 2010

First Published on The Drum 23/11/2010

As if dealing with four independent blokes, a Green bloke and a blokey bloke in charge of the Opposition is not enough, now Julia Gillard is developing a problem with blokes outside the Parliament.

Having politely indicated that they were happy with a female Prime Minister in the lead-up to the federal election, this week’s Essential Report picks up sharp moves in the attitudes of the brotherhood.

In the absence of any compelling policy development to explain the surge, we are left with the Bradley Effect, the theory created to explain why an African-American candidate lost the 1982 race for Governor of California despite having a massive lead in the polls.

The details of the Bradley Effect later, first some numbers from this week’s Essential Report.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Nov 22, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
31 May 5 Jul 19 Jul 26 Jul 2 Aug 9 Aug 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct 22 Nov
Total approve 41% 48% 52% 49% 46% 45% 46% 45% 45% 43%
Total disapprove 47% 27% 30% 33% 38% 40% 40% 37% 37% 38%
Strongly approve 7% 14% 11% 12% 10% 13% 13% 12% 10% 7%
Approve 34% 34% 41% 37% 36% 32% 33% 33% 36% 36%
Disapprove 25% 13% 17% 19% 23% 24% 24% 21% 20% 23%
Strongly disapprove 22% 14% 13% 14% 15% 16% 16% 16% 17% 15%
Don’t know 12% 26% 18% 17% 15% 15% 13% 19% 18% 18%

43% (down 2%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 38% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +8 to +5.

87% of Labor voters approve and 4% disapprove.

By gender – men 39% approve/44% disapprove, women 47% approve/33% disapprove. Men have shifted from a net rating of  +4 to -5 while women have changed from +10 to +14.

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Better Prime Minister

Nov 22, 2010

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10 2 Aug 10 9 Aug 10 16 Aug 10 20 Sep 10 18 Oct 10 22 Nov 10 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 50% 51% 48% 45% 46% 47% 49% 45% 94% 6% 76% 47%
Tony Abbott 26% 27% 26% 30% 33% 35% 35% 33% 34% 1% 78% 3% 30%
Don’t know 21% 23% 23% 22% 21% 19% 18% 17% 21% 5% 17% 21% 23%

45% (down 4%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (up 1%) prefer Tony Abbott – a closing of the gap from 16% to 11% since last month’s figures.

Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 41%/40% and women 49%/28%.

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So where is the Left?

Oct 26, 2010

First Published on The Drum 26/10/2010

If political progressives want to stop the ALP from drifting to the Right, energetically backing the decision to move women and children out of immigration detention looks like a good place to start.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Immigration minister Chris Bowen took the new minority government’s first truly brave decision last week, yet all they got was a sullen acceptance from a Left still acting like jilted lovers after the disappointments of the election campaign.

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Leader and Party most trusted to handle the war in Afghanistan

Oct 25, 2010

Q. Which leader and party would you trust most to handle our involvement in the war in Afghanistan?

Julia Gillard and the Labor Party 33%
Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party 32%
Bob Brown and the Greens 7%
Don’t know 28%

Respondents were split over which leader and party they would trust most to handle our involvement in the war in Afghanistan. 33% prefer Julia Gillard and the Labor Party and 32% prefer Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party.

Those aged 55+ prefer the Liberal Party over the Labor Party 40% to 34%.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Oct 18, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

  Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
  31 May 5 Jul 19 Jul 26 Jul 2 Aug 9 Aug 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct
Total approve 41% 48% 52% 49% 46% 45% 46% 45% 45%
Total disapprove 47% 27% 30% 33% 38% 40% 40% 37% 37%
Strongly approve 7% 14% 11% 12% 10% 13% 13% 12% 10%
Approve 34% 34% 41% 37% 36% 32% 33% 33% 36%
Disapprove 25% 13% 17% 19% 23% 24% 24% 21% 20%
Strongly disapprove 22% 14% 13% 14% 15% 16% 16% 16% 17%
Don’t know 12% 26% 18% 17% 15% 15% 13% 19% 18%

 45% approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 37% disapprove – showing no change from last months ratings.

 89% of Labor voters approve and 3% disapprove.

By gender – men 45% approve/41% disapprove, women 45% approve/35% disapprove. Comments »

Better Prime Minister

Oct 18, 2010

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

  5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10 2 Aug 10 9 Aug 10 16 Aug 10 20 Sep 10 18 Oct 10 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens   Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott21 Jun 10
Julia Gillard 53% 50% 51% 48% 45% 46% 47% 49% 92% 9% 81%   47%
Tony Abbott 26% 27% 26% 30% 33% 35% 35% 33% 2% 75% 4%   30%
Don’t know 21% 23% 23% 22% 21% 19% 18% 17% 6% 16% 15%   23%

 49% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% prefer Tony Abbott – a widening of the gap from 12% to 16% since last month’s figures. This is the largest gap since the 2 August survey.

 Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 50%/34% and women 49%/33%. Comments »

The Bride (and Bridesmaid) stripped bare

Oct 5, 2010

First Published on The Drum 05/10/2010

New paradigms notwithstanding, the first week of the 43rd Parliament of Australia has confirmed a continuation of the gladiatorial contests that have characterised Australia’s model of presidential politics.

And that means a confronting truth for both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott: the public’s perceptions of their personal strengths and weakness are central to the success of their respective political projects.

There was a time when character research was a dark art, the province of party focus groups, only dusted of at election time when attacks would be constructed around a candidate’s lack of ticker (read weight) or stubbornness (read age). The modern opinion polling means today it’s all out in the open.

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