Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 15, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,924 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

17/9/12

2 weeks ago

1/10/12

Last week

8/10/12

This week

15/10/12

Liberal

45%

44%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

47%

47%

47%

Labor

38.0%

34%

36%

37%

36%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

7%

7%

8%

 

2PP

Election
21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

53%

53%

53%

Labor

50.1%

45%

47%

47%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Approval of Julia Gillard

Oct 15, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

 

19 Jul 10

20 Dec

14 Mar
11

14 Jun

12 Sep

12 Dec

12 Mar 12

12 Jun

16
Jul

13 Aug

10 Sep

15 Oct

Total approve

52%

43%

41%

34%

28%

34%

32%

32%

32%

31%

35%

41%

Total disapprove

30%

40%

46%

54%

64%

54%

61%

56%

58%

57%

54%

51%

Strongly approve

11%

10%

7%

6%

5%

6%

8%

6%

5%

7%

7%

9%

Approve

41%

33%

34%

28%

23%

28%

24%

26%

27%

24%

28%

32%

Disapprove

17%

24%

22%

29%

28%

25%

29%

22%

26%

25%

27%

24%

Strongly disapprove

13%

16%

24%

25%

36%

29%

32%

34%

32%

32%

27%

27%

Don’t know

18%

17%

13%

13%

8%

11%

7%

12%

10%

13%

11%

8%

Julia Gillard’s approval rating has improved since last month. 41% (up 6%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 51% (down 3%) disapprove – a 9 point change in net rating from -19 to -10. This is Julia Gillard’s best approval rating since May 2011.

87% of Labor voters approve (up 6%) and 9% disapprove (down 2%).

By gender – men 40% approve/54% disapprove, women 43% approve/47% disapprove.  In net terms this represents an improvement with men from -29 to -14 and with women from -7 to -4.

Better Prime Minister

Oct 15, 2012

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

5 Jul 10

14 Mar 11

14 Jun

12 Sep

12 Dec

12 Mar 12

12 Jun

16 Jul

13 Aug

10 Sep

15 Oct

Vote
ALP

Vote Lib

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

53%

44%

41%

36%

39%

40%

37%

37%

36%

40%

43%

89%

5%

77%

Tony Abbott

26%

33%

36%

40%

35%

37%

37%

38%

38%

37%

36%

2%

81%

2%

Don’t know

21%

23%

24%

24%

26%

23%

26%

26%

26%

24%

20%

9%

14%

21%

43% (up 3%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% (down 1%) prefer Tony Abbott.

Men are evenly split (at 40% each) and women prefer Julia Gillard 47%/33%. Compared to last month’s figures, Julia Gillard’s margin over Tony Abbott has changed 8 points in her favour among men (from 36%/44%) but is unchanged among women (from 44%/30%).

Leader Attributes – Comparisons

Sep 17, 2012
 

Gillard

Abbott

Difference

Intelligent

68%

62%

+6%

Hard-working

69%

67%

+2%

A capable leader

43%

37%

+6%

Arrogant

46%

63%

-17%

Out of touch with ordinary people

56%

57%

-1%

Understands the problems facing Australia

43%

43%

Visionary

31%

29%

+2%

Superficial

46%

51%

-5%

Good in a crisis

43%

35%

+8%

Narrow-minded

46%

59%

-13%

More honest than most politicians

31%

27%

+4%

Trustworthy

30%

30%

Intolerant

37%

53%

-16%

Aggressive

42%

59%

-17%

Erratic

43%

51%

-8%

Compared to Abbott, Gillard is seen as more intelligent (+6%), a more capable leader (+6%) and good in a crisis (+8%).

Abbott is regarded by significantly more respondents to be arrogant (+17%), narrow minded (+13%), intolerant (+16%) and aggressive (+17%).

Since the last time the question was polled, Gillard has narrowed the gap on ‘out of touch with ordinary people’ (moving from +11% in April compared to Abbott to -1% this week) as well as ‘understands the problem facing Australia’ (-8% in April 2012 to equal with Abbott this month).

Better Prime Minister

Sep 10, 2012

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

19 July 2010

14 Jun 2011

12 Dec 2011

16 Jan 2012

16 Apr 2012

16 Jul 2012

Last month 13 Aug 2012

This week  10 Sept 2012

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

50%

41%

39%

39%

38%

37%

36%

40%

87%

4%

80%

Tony Abbott

27%

36%

35%

36%

36%

38%

38%

37%

3%

76%

5%

Don’t know

23%

24%

26%

25%

25%

26%

26%

24%

10%

20%

15%

Forty percent (40%) of respondents believe that Julia Gillard would make a better Prime Minister than Tony Abbott, up 4% from the last time the question was polled in August 2012.   Gillard has resumed the lead on Abbott as preferred Prime Minister, having dropped behind him after April 2012.

There was little change in favour of Abbott, with belief that Abbott would make a better Prime Minister changing just 1% from last month, down to 37%.

This week’s figures are fairly consistent with the results from the beginning of the year (39% in favour of Gillard, 36% in favour of Abbott).

Over the two years since July 2010, belief that Gillard would make a better Prime Minister has dropped 10 points from 50% to 40%, whilst belief that Abbott would make a better Prime Minister has equally increased 10 points from 27% to 37%.

Female respondents were more likely to regard Gillard as the better Prime Minister (44% Gillard / 30% Abbott) whereas male respondents were more likely to regard Abbott as the better Prime Minister (36% Gillard / 44% Abbott).

Criticism of Julia Gillard

Sep 3, 2012

Q. Do you think the Prime Minister Julia Gillard has been subjected to more or less personal criticism than a male Prime Minister would be?

 

Total

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Men

Women

More

51%

77%

34%

74%

42%

61%

Less

6%

3%

10%

1%

8%

4%

About the same

38%

18%

54%

19%

46%

31%

Don’t know

5%

2%

2%

6%

5%

5%

51% think that the Prime Minister Julia Gillard has been subjected to more personal criticism than a male Prime Minister would be. 38% think she has received about the same level of personal criticism and 6% think she has received less.

61% of women think Julia Gillard has received more personal criticism but 54% of men think she has received about the same or less.

Better Prime Minister

Aug 13, 2012

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

5 Jul 2010

14 Mar 2011

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 2012

12 Jun

16 Jul

Total 13 Aug

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

53%

44%

41%

36%

39%

40%

37%

37%

36%

78%

4%

78%

Tony Abbott

26%

33%

36%

40%

35%

37%

37%

38%

38%

8%

77%

4%

Don’t know

21%

23%

24%

24%

26%

23%

26%

26%

26%

13%

18%

18%

36% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 38% (no change) prefer Tony Abbott.

Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/33% and women prefer Julia Gillard 39%/35%.

Fuzzy Facts From The Empty Suit

Aug 9, 2012

The PM is going to be chatting live on-line today at News.com, focused on the question of rising power prices. This should be a pretty straightforward issue, with facts guiding the discussion. But, The Empty Suit, Leader of the Coalition, is trying to muddle the issue…and who can blame him? He’s rolled the dice trying to scare the entire nation about the carbon tax — which is proving to be a non-event.

Yes, prices of electricity are going up. But, it’s pretty clear this has virtually nothing to do with the carbon tax.

Here is a pretty simple explanation from the PM, as a curtain-raiser to her on-line talk:

First, the states who own electricity network businesses are doing well out of it.

Take New South Wales: separate to carbon pricing, there’s been a 70 per cent increase in prices over four years. And there’s been a 60 per cent increase in the dividends that the NSW Government gets.

Second, meeting peak power costs too much. One quarter of your electricity bill, more than $500 a year for a typical family, is spent to meet the costs of peak events that last for less than two days each year in total. It’s like building a ten-lane freeway, but with two lanes that are only used or needed for one long weekend.

Third, customers need more choice. The states should sign up to the National Energy Customer Framework, with strong protections when people can’t pay their electricity bills and extra information to help customers get the best energy deal.

And finally, I am pushing for the whole electricity system to operate more efficiently and more effectively. I’d rather do this with the states. We’ll only use the big stick of stronger powers for the Energy Regulator and the ACCC if we have to.

In other words, it’s the electricity generating companies who are trying to sock us with costs for building up new capacity. In Queensland and Victoria, the power companies have not invested in new capacity since 1998 — and, as the PM points out, they now need to do so largely to absorb peak power needs for just a few days a year. That has zero to do with the carbon tax. None. Nada.

The Empty Suit, though, is in a real box. He has staked a huge part of his campaign on the “sky is falling” results from the carbon tax. So, when you listen to what he says now, pay very little attention because it’s not based on the real facts on the reason for the rise in electricity prices.


@jonathantasini

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