050312, 5 March 2012, ALP, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor Party, Leadership Challenge, party leadership, Polling, polls, the media, tony abbott
Q. How would you rate the performance of the following during the Labor leadership challenge?
|
Total good |
Total poor |
Very good |
Good |
Average |
Poor |
Very poor |
Don’t know |
|
| Julia Gillard |
23% |
49% |
10% |
13% |
24% |
17% |
32% |
4% |
| Kevin Rudd |
33% |
35% |
12% |
21% |
27% |
16% |
19% |
4% |
| Labor Party Ministers |
10% |
52% |
2% |
8% |
30% |
25% |
27% |
8% |
| Tony Abbott |
25% |
40% |
9% |
16% |
27% |
18% |
22% |
8% |
| The media |
14% |
43% |
3% |
11% |
35% |
20% |
23% |
6% |
Apart from Kevin Rudd, the performance of all parties to the leadership challenge were rated poorly.
33% thought the performance of Kevin Rudd was good and 35% poor. For Julia Gillard the rating was 23% good and 49% poor. Labor Party Ministers were rated most negatively – 10% good and 52% poor.
However, Julia Gillard was rated a little better than Kevin Rudd by Labor voters – their rating of Julia Gillard was 50% good/15% poor compared to 49% good/22% poor for Kevin Rudd.
ALP, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Labor leadership, Labor Party, leadership, Polling, polls
Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Kevin Rudd |
18% |
27% |
16% |
21% |
| Julia Gillard |
39% |
28% |
55% |
16% |
| Other people in the Labor Party |
23% |
23% |
21% |
25% |
| The media |
10% |
16% |
4% |
25% |
| Don’t know |
10% |
7% |
4% |
12% |
39% of respondents think that Julia Gillard is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party, 23% think other people in the Labor Party are responsible and 18% think Kevin Rudd is responsible. Only 10% think the media are mainly responsible.
A majority (55%) of Liberal/National voters think Julia Gillard is mainly responsible while Labor and Greens voters are fairly evenly divided between Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd and other people in the Labor Party. 25% of Greens voters think that the media are responsible.
Ben Chifley, best PM, best Prime Minister, Bob Hawke, Federal Government, Gough Whitlam, Harold Holt, John Curtin, john howard, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Malcolm Fraser, paul keating, PM, Prime Minister, Robert Menzies
Q. Choosing from the following list, who do you think has been Australia’s best Prime Minister?
| Term of office | Total
19 Jan 2009 |
Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ | |
| John Curtin | 7 Oct 1941 – 5 Jul 1945 | 4% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Ben Chifley | 13 Jul 1945 – 19 Dec 1949 | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Robert Menzies | 19 Dec 1949 – 26 Jan 1966 | 11% | 11% | 4% | 18% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 21% |
| Harold Holt | 26 Jan 1966 – 19 Dec 1967 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% | 1% | – |
| John Gorton | 10 Jan 1968 – 10 Mar1971 | 1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| William McMahon | 10 Mar 1971 – 5 Dec 1972 | 1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Gough Whitlam | 5 Dec 1972 – 11 Nov 1975 | 9% | 9% | 15% | 1% | 18% | 8% | 9% | 10% |
| Malcolm Fraser | 11 Nov 1975 – 11 Mar 1983 | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 6% | – | 3% | 6% |
| Bob Hawke | 11 Mar 1983 – 20 Dec 1991 | 12% | 15% | 23% | 5% | 22% | 12% | 21% | 10% |
| Paul Keating | 20 Dec 1991 – 11 Mar 1996 | 8% | 6% | 12% | 2% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 4% |
| John Howard | 11 Mar 1996 – 3 Dec 2007 | 28% | 33% | 8% | 61% | 5% | 33% | 31% | 35% |
| Kevin Rudd | 3 Dec 2007 – 24 Jun 2010 | 20% | 15% | 21% | 6% | 27% | 25% | 15% | 6% |
| Julia Gillard | 24 Jun 2010 – present | na | 3% | 8% | – | 4% | 6% | 2% | 2% |
Note: Percentages based on those who gave an answer.
33% thought that John Howard has been Australia’s best Prime Minister, 15% chose Kevin Rudd and 15% Bob Hawke.
Among Liberal/National voters, 61% chose John Howard and 18% Robert Menzies. With 23%, Bob Hawke received the highest rating from Labor voters, just ahead of Kevin Rudd on 21% with Gough Whitlam on 15%. Greens voters favoured Kevin Rudd (27%) and Bob Hawke (22%).
While John Howard received similar scores across age groups, the 18-34 group were more likely to favour Kevin Rudd (25%), the 35-54’s Bob Hawke (21%) and the 55+ group Robert Menzies (21%). Compared to the results when this question was asked 3 years ago (when Kevin Rudd was Prime Minister), John Howard (+5%) and Bob Hawke (+3%) have improved their ratings while Kevin Rudd’s has dropped 5%.
2012, 2012 Outlook, Bob Brown, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, leadership, malcolm turnbull, politicians, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
Dec 10 |
Total bad
Dec10 |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 28% | 36% | 19% | 56% | 4% | 15% | 17% | 29% | 27% | 9% |
| Tony Abbott | 29% | 27% | 24% | 38% | 6% | 18% | 29% | 24% | 14% | 10% |
| Kevin Rudd | 21% | 30% | 30% | 25% | 5% | 25% | 35% | 17% | 8% | 10% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 21% | 22% | 22% | 3% | 19% | 42% | 17% | 5% | 14% |
| Bob Brown | 20% | 30% | 16% | 39% | 2% | 14% | 31% | 20% | 19% | 14% |
Overall, there were negative expectations for the three party leaders – Julia Gillard (-37% net), Tony Abbott (-14%) and Bob Brown (-23%) while respondents were more evenly divided over Kevin Rudd (+5%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-).
45% of Labor voters expect Julia Gillard to have a good year and 47% of Liberal/National voters expect Tony Abbott to have a good year.
Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all party leaders – Julia Gillard has dropped form net -8% to net -37%, Tony Abbott from +2% to -14% and Bob Brown from -10% to -23%.
Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2012 to be similar 2011 for Julia Gillard (net -37% next year compared to -36% this year) and Tony Abbott (-14% next year, -17% this year). However, Bob Brown is expected to have a worse year in 2012 (net -23%) than this year (+5%).
Bob Brown, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, malcolm turnbull, Past Year, politicians, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
(Dec 10) |
Total bad
(Dec 10) |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 49% | 25% | 21% | 57% | 3% | 18% | 16% | 35% | 22% | 6% |
| Bob Brown | 38% | 21% | 32% | 27% | 8% | 24% | 26% | 14% | 13% | 16% |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 33% | 21% | 38% | 2% | 19% | 32% | 25% | 13% | 8% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 10% | 43% | 17% | 23% | 2% | 15% | 45% | 16% | 7% | 17% |
| Kevin Rudd | 10% | 70% | 31% | 30% | 5% | 26% | 31% | 22% | 8% | 7% |
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |||||
| Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | |
| Julia Gillard | 21% | 57% | 41% | 36% | 10% | 77% | 29% | 43% |
| Bob Brown | 32% | 27% | 37% | 19% | 25% | 40% | 66% | 4% |
| Tony Abbott | 21% | 38% | 9% | 57% | 39% | 18% | 7% | 64% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 17% | 23% | 18% | 21% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 22% |
| Kevin Rudd | 31% | 30% | 37% | 24% | 31% | 38% | 29% | 25% |
Overall, only Bob Brown (32%/27%) was thought to have had a good year. Respondents were divided on whether Kevin Rudd has had a good year (31%/30%). Only 21% thought Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott had a good year in 2011. 2011 was considered worse than 2010 for each of the party leaders. Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd were considered to have had a somewhat better year compared to 2010.
Among their own voters thought, 66% (down 2%) thought Bob Brown had a good year, 41% (down 28%) thought Julia Gillard had a good year and 39% (down 5%) thought Tony Abbott has had a good year.
economy, Essential Report, GFC, global financial crisis, Greens, Joe Hockey, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, leadership, Liberal, malcolm turnbull, Nationals, Polling, tony abbott
Q. If there was another global financial crisis or a recession, which of the following would be best to lead Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Kevin Rudd | 24% | 34% | 13% | 37% |
| Tony Abbott | 20% | 4% | 44% | – |
| Julia Gillard | 13% | 42% | 1% | 18% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 13% | 7% | 17% | 17% |
| Joe Hockey | 7% | 1% | 11% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 12% | 15% | 25% |
24% think Kevin Rudd would be best to lead Australia if there was another GFC and 20% favour Tony Abbott.
Among Labor voters Julia Gillard is preferred over Kevin Rudd 42% to 34%. Support for the current party leaders among their own voters is very similar – 42% of Labor voters prefer Julia Gillard and 44% of Liberal/National voters prefer Tony Abbott.
Bill Shorten, Bob Brown, Greg Combet, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, leadership, malcolm turnbull, Network Ten, Polling, polls, preferred PM, Stephen Smith
Q. If you were able to choose any politician to be leader of the Labor Party, which of the following would you prefer? (This question was commissioned by Network Ten).
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Age
18-34 |
Aged
35-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| Kevin Rudd | 37% | 43% | 36% | 35% | 40% | 33% | 40% | 39% | 30% |
| Julia Gillard | 12% | 31% | 2% | 24% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 11% | 6% | 17% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 15% |
| Stephen Smith | 7% | 6% | 9% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 12% |
| Bob Brown | 3% | 2% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| Greg Combet | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Bill Shorten | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 28% | 9% | 32% | 18% | 22% | 33% | 31% | 28% | 22% |
37% of respondents prefer Kevin Rudd as leader of the Labor Party, 12% prefer Julia Gillard and 11% Malcolm Turnbull.
Among Labor voters, 43% prefer Kevin Rudd and 31% Julia Gillard.
Kevin Rudd is more preferred by younger respondents while those aged 55+ were more likely than the average to prefer Malcolm Turnbull (15%) and Stephen Smith (12%).
approval of PM, Essential Report, Gillard, Greens, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, rudd
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||||||
| 31 May
2010 |
19 Jul | 20 Sep | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | |
| Total approve | 41% | 52% | 45% | 43% | 51% | 48% | 41% | 37% | 41% | 34% | 29% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 30% | 37% | 40% | 36% | 41% | 46% | 50% | 48% | 54% | 62% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% |
| Approve | 34% | 41% | 33% | 33% | 43% | 39% | 34% | 30% | 34% | 28% | 24% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 17% | 21% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 26% | 29% | 30% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 32% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 13% | 9% |
29% (down 5%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 62% (up 8%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -20 to -33 over the last 4 weeks.
72% of Labor voters approve (down 4%) and 20% disapprove (up 6%).
By gender – men 31% approve/63% disapprove, women 28% approve/61% disapprove.