Better Prime Minister

Jul 11, 2011

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 2010 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June 11 July Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 47% 48% 44% 42% 43% 41% 37% 85% 6% 68% 47%
Tony Abbott 26% 32% 31% 33% 33% 35% 36% 39% 5% 75% 9% 30%
Don’t know 21% 21% 20% 23% 24% 22% 24% 24% 10% 19% 24% 23%

37% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 39% prefer Tony Abbott – the first time that Tony Abbott has been preferred over Julia Gillard – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 7% on last month’s figures (from +5% to -2%).

Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/36% and women favour Julia Gillard 38%/36%.

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Vote if Kevin Rudd Labor Leader

Jun 27, 2011

Q. If Kevin Rudd was the leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?

First preference Total Gave vote
Liberal 36% 39%
National 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 39% 42%
Labor 41% 45%
Greens 7% 8%
Other/Independent 5% 6%
Don’t know 8%

If Kevin Rudd was leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party) 45% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (up 13%) and 42% to the Liberal or National Parties (down 6%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.

In two party preferred terms, this equates to 53% Labor/47% Liberal/National – a swing of 8% to Labor.

Most of the increased Labor vote comes from Liberal/National voters  – 12% of Liberal/National voters said they would vote Labor if Kevin Rudd was leader.

Groups with the largest shifts to Labor were women, aged under 35, NSW and lower incomes.

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Best Leader of the Labor Party

May 30, 2011

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Julia Gillard 23% 51% 10% 26%
Kevin Rudd 32% 31% 31% 31%
Wayne Swan 2% 1% 3% 3%
Greg Combet 4% 5% 3% 6%
Bill Shorten 3% 3% 3% 4%
Someone else 19% 5% 31% 11%
Don’t know 17% 5% 18% 19%

32% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 23% prefer Julia Gillard. Julia Gillard is preferred by 51% of Labor voters compared to 31% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 34% to 21% and women by 30% to 25%.

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Approval of Kevin Rudd as Foreign Minister

Mar 28, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Foreign Minister?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total approve 61% 83% 47% 74%
Total disapprove 19% 5% 33% 9%
Strongly approve 17% 27% 9% 25%
Approve 44% 56% 38% 49%
Disapprove 11% 4% 18% 7%
Strongly disapprove 8% 1% 15% 2%
Don’t know 21% 12% 21% 18%

61% approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Foreign Minister and 19% disapprove. 83% of Labor voters and 74% of Greens voters approve.

Coalition voters are also more likely to approve than disapprove (47% approve/33% disapprove).

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Better Prime Minister

Mar 14, 2011

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 2010 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 2011 14 Mar 2011 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 47% 45% 47% 48% 44% 88% 8% 73% 47%
Tony Abbott 26% 35% 34% 32% 31% 33% 3% 70% 4% 30%
Don’t know 21% 18% 21% 21% 20% 23% 9% 22% 22% 23%

44% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 6% on last month’s figures (from +17% to +11%).

Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 42%/37% and women 46%/29%.

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Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd

Feb 21, 2011

Q. Do you think that Julia Gillard has been a better or a worse leader than Kevin Rudd?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total better 28% 47% 13% 30%
Total worse 33% 18% 48% 35%
A lot better 7% 15% 2% 3%
A little better 21% 32% 11% 27%
No difference 33% 32% 37% 30%
A little worse 15% 10% 17% 23%
A lot worse 18% 8% 31% 12%
Don’t know 6% 3% 2% 5%

Overall, respondents were split over whether Julia Gillard has been a better or worse leader than Kevin Rudd – 28% thought she had been better, 33% worse and 33% no different.

Labor voters were more likely to think she had been better (47%/18%) while Liberal/National voters though she had been worse (13%/48%). Greens voters were split 30% better/35% worse and 30% no different.

By gender – men split 24% better/37% worse compared to women 31% better/29% worse.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Feb 14, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
31 May 5 Jul 19 Jul 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct 22 Nov 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 2011
Total approve 41% 48% 52% 46% 45% 45% 43% 43% 51% 48%
Total disapprove 47% 27% 30% 40% 37% 37% 38% 40% 36% 41%
Strongly approve 7% 14% 11% 13% 12% 10% 7% 10% 8% 9%
Approve 34% 34% 41% 33% 33% 36% 36% 33% 43% 39%
Disapprove 25% 13% 17% 24% 21% 20% 23% 24% 24% 25%
Strongly disapprove 22% 14% 13% 16% 16% 17% 15% 16% 12% 16%
Don’t know 12% 26% 18% 13% 19% 18% 18% 17% 14% 11%

48% (down 3%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 41% (up 5%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +15 to +7 over the last 4 weeks.

88% of Labor voters approve and 8% disapprove.

By gender – men 45% approve/45% disapprove, women 51% approve/36% disapprove.

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2011 Outlook – Politicians

Dec 20, 2010

Q. Do you think 2011 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?

Total good Total poor Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
Julia Gillard 28% 36% 5% 23% 23% 26% 10% 12%
Tony Abbott 29% 27% 5% 24% 32% 20% 7% 13%
Kevin Rudd 21% 30% 3% 18% 35% 21% 9% 14%
Malcolm Turnbull 20% 21% 3% 17% 41% 17% 4% 18%
Bob Brown 20% 30% 4% 16% 31% 18% 12% 19%

There were no strong expectations one way or the other that 2011 would be good or bad for politicians.

Overall, there were negative expectations for Julia Gillard (-8% net), Kevin Rudd (-9%) and Bob Brown (-10%) while respondents were divided over Tony Abbott (+2%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-1%).

Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2011 to be worse than 2010 for Julia Gillard (net +24% in 2010 compared to

-8% in 2011) and Bob Brown (+17% in 2010/-10% in 2011).

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