balance of power, Essential Report, Federal Government, federal politics, Greens, house of representatives, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, Senate
Q. Thinking about the Federal Government, which of the following scenarios would you prefer –
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Green | |
| One of the major parties having a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate | 36% | 36% | 49% | 7% |
| One of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the other having a majority in the Senate | 21% | 16% | 27% | 10% |
| One of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the Greens having the balance of power in the Senate | 16% | 22% | 4% | 63% |
| Don’t know | 28% | 26% | 21% | 19% |
Most respondents think that ‘one of the major parties having a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate’ is preferable (36%). Lib/Nat voters are the most likely to prefer this scenario (49%) and Greens voters the least likely to do so (7%). Male respondents were also more likely to prefer this scenario (40%) than female respondents (32%).
Respondents then selected ‘one of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the other having a majority in the Senate’ as their next preferred scenario (21%). Lib/Nat voters are the most likely to regard this scenario as preferable (27%).
The least favoured option amongst respondents is ‘one of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the Greens having the balance of power in the Senate’, with 16% selecting this option. Greens voters are the most likely to regard this option as the most preferable (63%).
2PP, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,847
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% | |
| National | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 50% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 31% | 32% | 30% | 32% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 9% | 8% | 10% | 10% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 57% | 56% | 57% | 56% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 43% | 44% | 43% | 44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Approval of Julia Gillard, Essential Report, Gillard, Labor, Polling, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| 19 Jul | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | 15 Aug | 12 Sept | |
| Total approve | 52% | 43% | 51% | 48% | 41% | 37% | 41% | 34% | 29% | 35% | 28% |
| Total disapprove | 30% | 40% | 36% | 41% | 46% | 50% | 48% | 54% | 62% | 55% | 64% |
| Strongly approve | 11% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% |
| Approve | 41% | 33% | 43% | 39% | 34% | 30% | 34% | 28% | 24% | 29% | 23% |
| Disapprove | 17% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 26% | 29% | 30% | 24% | 28% |
| Strongly disapprove | 13% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 32% | 31% | 36% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 13% | 9% | 11% | 8% |
After improving last month Julia Gillard’s approval rating has dropped back to a level similar to the July result. 28% (down 7%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 64% (up 9%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -20 to -36 over the last 4 weeks.
66% of Labor voters approve (down 11%) and 26% disapprove (up 13%).
By gender – men 29% approve/65% disapprove, women 27% approve/62% disapprove.
Approval of opposition leader, approval of PM, Essential Report, Julia Gillard, Labor, Liberal, Polling, preferred PM, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | 15 Aug | 12 Sept | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 37% | 38% | 36% | 81% | 5% | 69% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 39% | 36% | 40% | 5% | 79% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 26% | 24% | 13% | 16% | 23% |
36% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 40% prefer Tony Abbott – a net improvement for Tony Abbott of 6% on last month’s figures (from -2% to +4%).
Men prefer Tony Abbott 43%/37% and women favour Tony Abbott 37%/36%.
2PP, Essential Report, Federal Government, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,878
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 47% | 46% | 46% | 46% | |
| National | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 50% | 50% | 49% | 49% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 30% | 32% | 32% | 30% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 10% | 8% | 8% | 10% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 57% | 56% | 56% | 57% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 43% | 44% | 44% | 43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
early election, Election, Essential Report, Federal Government, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should run to 2013 | 40% | 82% | 11% | 80% |
| Should hold election now | 48% | 9% | 84% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 9% | 5% | 7% |
40% think that the Labor Government should run its full term and 48% think there should be an election held now.
Opinions closely follow voting preference – 82% of Labor voters and 80% of Greens voters think the Government should run its full term while 84% of Liberal/National voters want an election now.
economy, Essential Report, GFC, global financial crisis, Greens, Joe Hockey, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, leadership, Liberal, malcolm turnbull, Nationals, Polling, tony abbott
Q. If there was another global financial crisis or a recession, which of the following would be best to lead Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Kevin Rudd | 24% | 34% | 13% | 37% |
| Tony Abbott | 20% | 4% | 44% | – |
| Julia Gillard | 13% | 42% | 1% | 18% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 13% | 7% | 17% | 17% |
| Joe Hockey | 7% | 1% | 11% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 12% | 15% | 25% |
24% think Kevin Rudd would be best to lead Australia if there was another GFC and 20% favour Tony Abbott.
Among Labor voters Julia Gillard is preferred over Kevin Rudd 42% to 34%. Support for the current party leaders among their own voters is very similar – 42% of Labor voters prefer Julia Gillard and 44% of Liberal/National voters prefer Tony Abbott.
2PP, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,865
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% | |
| National | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 49% | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 31% | 31% | 32% | 32% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 11% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8 |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 56% | 57% | 56% | 56% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 44% | 43% | 44% | 44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.