Federal politics – voting intention

Feb 13, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,906 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

This week
Liberal 45% 44% 44% 44%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 48% 47% 47% 47%
Labor 38.0% 35% 34% 33% 34%
Greens 11.8% 9% 10% 11% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 8% 9% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 54% 54% 54%
Labor 50.1% 46% 46% 46% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Better Prime Minister

Feb 13, 2012

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 2010 14 Mar 14 June 12 Sept 17 Oct 14 Nov 12 Dec 16 Jan 2012 13 Feb Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Julia Gillard 53% 44% 41% 36% 38% 41% 39% 39% 41% 85% 5% 76%
Tony Abbott 26% 33% 36% 40% 39% 36% 35% 36% 34% 3% 73% 7%
Don’t know 21% 23% 24% 24% 23% 24% 26% 25% 25% 12% 22% 17%

41% (up 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (down 2%) prefer Tony Abbott – a net change from +3% to +7% for Julia Gillard. This is Julia Gillard’s best result since May last year.

Men prefer Julia Gillard 42%/37% and women favour Julia Gillard 40%/32%.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 30, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,899 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

2 weeks ago Last week

This week
Liberal 45% 45% 44%
National 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 48% 48% 47%
Labor 38.0% 35% 35% 34%
Greens 11.8% 9% 10% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 7% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 54% 54%
Labor 50.1% 46% 46% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 23, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,896 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

Last week

This week
Liberal 45% 45%
National 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 48% 48%
Labor 38.0% 35% 35%
Greens 11.8% 9% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 7%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 54%
Labor 50.1% 46% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Support for Additional Assistance to Car Industry

Jan 23, 2012

Q. Do you support or oppose the provision of additional assistance by Federal and State governments to ensure US motor companies continue to manufacture cars in Australia?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 58% 67% 63% 45%
Total oppose 18% 16% 20% 22%
Strongly support 14% 20% 14% 5%
Support 44% 47% 49% 40%
Oppose 12% 12% 14% 13%
Strongly oppose 6% 4% 6% 9%
Don’t know 23% 17% 17% 33%

58% said they supported the provision of additional assistance to the Australian car industry and 18% were opposed.

Support was highest among Labor voters (67%), aged 55+ (67%) and Victorians (68%).

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Estimate of Jobs in Car Industry

Jan 23, 2012

Q. Do you know how many jobs are in the car industry in Australia?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
500,000 5% 8% 4% 3%
200,000 9% 8% 10% 12%
100,000 9% 9% 9% 11%
50,000 9% 8% 11% 6%
20,000 3% 4% 3% 5%
Don’t know 66% 63% 64% 63%

Only 9% correctly nominated 50,000 as the number of jobs in the car industry in Australia. 66% said they didn’t know and the rest of the responses were spread across all options – suggesting that most who gave an answer were probably guessing.

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Support for Car Industry Jobs

Jan 23, 2012

Q. In fact, the car industry in Australia directly supports about 50,000 jobs. Do you support or oppose the current levels of assistance to support these jobs?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 68% 75% 72% 56%
Total oppose 12% 9% 13% 17%
Strongly support 14% 20% 13% 5%
Support 54% 55% 59% 51%
Oppose 9% 7% 9% 15%
Strongly oppose 3% 2% 4% 2%
Don’t know 20% 15% 15% 27%

When provided with the information that there are about 50,000 jobs in the Australian car industry, 68% said the supported the current levels of assistance and 12% were opposed. More than 70% of both Labor and Liberal/National voters were in support and more than 60% of all demographic groups also supported the current level of assistance.

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Support for Other Manufacturing Sectors

Jan 23, 2012

Q. Do you think other manufacturing sectors that are under pressure from the high Australian dollar should receive similar assistance from Governments, or do you think the car industry needs special assistance?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Other manufacturing industries should receive similar assistance 62% 61% 66% 68%
The car industry needs special assistance 12% 15% 15% 9%
Don’t know 26% 24% 19% 23%

62% thought that other manufacturing industries should receive similar assistance and only 12% thought the car industry needs special assistance. There were no major differences across demographic and voter groups – although strongest support for similar assistance for other industries came from Greens voters (68%), aged 45+ (69%) and Victorian residents (68%).

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