Leaders in 12 Months

Dec 19, 2011

Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 26% 49% 12% 37%
No 55% 31% 76% 45%
Don’t know 19% 21% 12% 18%

Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 41% 26% 64% 29%
No 34% 53% 16% 53%
Don’t know 25% 21% 20% 18%

Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).

49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.

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Best Leader for GFC

Sep 5, 2011

Q. If there was another global financial crisis or a recession, which of the following would be best to lead Australia?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Kevin Rudd 24% 34% 13% 37%
Tony Abbott 20% 4% 44%
Julia Gillard 13% 42% 1% 18%
Malcolm Turnbull 13% 7% 17% 17%
Joe Hockey 7% 1% 11% 3%
Don’t know 22% 12% 15% 25%

24% think Kevin Rudd would be best to lead Australia if there was another GFC and 20% favour Tony Abbott.

Among Labor voters Julia Gillard is preferred over Kevin Rudd 42% to 34%. Support for the current party leaders among their own voters is very similar – 42% of Labor voters prefer Julia Gillard and 44% of Liberal/National voters prefer Tony Abbott.

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Preferred Leader of the Labor Party

Aug 3, 2011

Q. If you were able to choose any politician to be leader of the Labor Party, which of the following would you prefer? (This question was commissioned by Network Ten).

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Men Women Age

18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged 55+
Kevin Rudd 37% 43% 36% 35% 40% 33% 40% 39% 30%
Julia Gillard 12% 31% 2% 24% 10% 13% 12% 12% 12%
Malcolm Turnbull 11% 6% 17% 7% 12% 10% 10% 9% 15%
Stephen Smith 7% 6% 9% 2% 7% 6% 3% 6% 12%
Bob Brown 3% 2% 2% 11% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4%
Greg Combet 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 3%
Bill Shorten 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Don’t know 28% 9% 32% 18% 22% 33% 31% 28% 22%

37% of respondents prefer Kevin Rudd as leader of the Labor Party, 12% prefer Julia Gillard and 11% Malcolm Turnbull.

Among Labor voters, 43% prefer Kevin Rudd and 31% Julia Gillard.

Kevin Rudd is more preferred by younger respondents while those aged 55+ were more likely than the average to prefer Malcolm Turnbull (15%) and Stephen Smith (12%).

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Is Australia a Better/Worse Place?

Jun 22, 2011

Q. Do you think Australia has become a better or worse place in the year since Julia Gillard became PM? (This question has been commissioned by Network Ten)

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Men Women Age

18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged 55+
A better place 13% 32% 4% 22% 16% 11% 16% 11% 11%
A worse place 51% 17% 82% 27% 57% 46% 42% 53% 61%
A much better place 3% 9% 1% 2% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3%
A better place 10% 23% 3% 20% 11% 9% 14% 8% 8%
A worse place 32% 14% 47% 24% 34% 30% 31% 33% 32%
A much worse place 19% 3% 35% 3% 23% 16% 11% 20% 29%
No change 29% 44% 12% 46% 24% 34% 30% 30% 25%
Don’t know 7% 6% 3% 5% 5% 9% 12% 6% 3%

Half the people surveyed (51%) think Australia has become a worse place in the year since Julia Gillard became PM. 13% think it has become a better place and 29% say there has been no change.

82% of Liberal/National voters think it has become a worse place while 46% of Greens voters and 44% of Labor voters think there has been no change.

The most negative groups were men (57% worse) and those aged 55+ (61% worse).

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Important election issues

Jun 6, 2011

Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?

One Two Three Total 24 Jan 11 11 Oct 10 25 Jan 10
Management of the economy 34% 18% 9% 61% 65% 62% 63%
Ensuring a quality education for all children 6% 10% 10% 26% 26% 32% 23%
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system 15% 15% 19% 49% 49% 48% 48%
Protecting the environment 4% 6% 5% 15% 13% 12% 16%
A fair industrial relations system 2% 3% 3% 8% 10% 11% *
Political leadership 6% 6% 5% 17% 16% 16% 23%
Addressing climate change 6% 4% 5% 15% 10% 11% 16%
Controlling interest rates 3% 5% 5% 13% 21% 17% 15%
Australian jobs and protection of local industries 9% 11% 12% 32% 30% 30% 33%
Ensuring a quality water supply 1% 1% 3% 5% 6% 6% 12%
Housing affordability 4% 6% 6% 16% 16% 17% 14%
Ensuring a fair taxation system 3% 6% 8% 17% 18% 16% 14%
Security and the war on terrorism 2% 2% 4% 8% 5% 6% 9%
Treatment of asylum seekers 1% 2% 2% 5% 5% 5% *
Managing population growth 2% 4% 6% 12% 11% 10% *

*Not asked

61% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 49% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and 32% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.

Since January, there has been an increase in the importance of addressing climate change (from 10% to 15%) and a decrease in the importance of controlling interest rates (from 21% to 13%).

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Party trusted to handle important election issues

Jun 6, 2011

Q. And which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

Labor Liberal Greens Don’t know
Management of the economy 29% 47% 3% 22%
Ensuring a quality education for all children 38% 35% 5% 23%
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system 33% 35% 6% 25%
Protecting the environment 18% 21% 39% 23%
A fair industrial relations system 40% 31% 4% 24%
Political leadership 26% 38% 5% 31%
Addressing climate change 21% 24% 29% 26%
Controlling interest rates 26% 44% 3% 28%
Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries 35% 35% 4% 26%
Ensuring a quality water supply 21% 28% 22% 29%
Housing affordability 26% 34% 4% 35%
Ensuring a fair taxation system 29% 37% 4% 30%
Security and the war on terrorism 25% 40% 3% 32%
Treatment of asylum seekers 19% 39% 11% 31%
Managing population growth 21% 36% 7% 36%

Labor is the most trusted party on only one issue – a fair industrial relations system. There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals for ensuring a quality education for all children, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries.

This represents a weakening in Labor’s position over the last few months. In January Labor was trusted most to handle ensuring a quality education for all children and in October Labor also had a significant lead on protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries.

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Balance of Power

Jun 6, 2011

Q. Do you think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good or bad for Australia?

7 Mar 11 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good 27% 28% 40% 11% 77%
Total bad 41% 39% 19% 68% 6%
Very good 7% 9% 11% 3% 40%
Good 20% 19% 29% 8% 37%
Neither good nor bad 33% 33% 41% 21% 17%
Bad 22% 21% 13% 33% 5%
Very bad 19% 18% 6% 35% 1%

28% of respondents think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good for Australia and 39% bad. This is very similar to the results obtained for this question in March. The only substantial change is that Labor voters are now more positive – in March they responded 33% good/25% bad.

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Best Leader of the Liberal Party

May 30, 2011

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?

27 Sep 2010 28 Feb 2011 30 May 2011
Total Total Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Tony Abbott 26% 24% 22% 10% 40% 7%
Malcolm Turnbull 20% 18% 25% 35% 19% 33%
Joe Hockey 15% 16% 17% 13% 22% 18%
Julie Bishop 5% 4% 3% 4% 2% 1%
Andrew Robb na 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Someone else na 14% 13% 17% 7% 16%
Don’t know 33% 22% 19% 20% 8% 22%

25% (+7%) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 22% (-3%) prefer Tony Abbott and 17% (+1%) Joe Hockey.

Among Liberal/National voters, 40% prefer Tony Abbott, 22% Joe Hockey and 19% Malcolm Turnbull.

Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by 25% of men and 24% of women, Tony Abbott by 24% of men and 19% of women.

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