Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 14, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,878 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

17/12/12

This week

14/01/13

Liberal

45%

44%

National

3%

4%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

36%

36%

Greens

11.8%

8%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

54%

Labor

50.1%

45%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

The past year – political parties

Dec 17, 2012

Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?

 

Total good

(Dec 10)

Total bad

(Dec 10)

Total good

(Dec 11)

Total bad

(Dec 11)

Total good

(Dec 12)

Total bad

(Dec 12)

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

Don’t know

The Liberal Party

33%

27%

27%

30%

19%

40%

5%

14%

34%

27%

13%

7%

The Labor Party

21%

47%

16%

53%

15%

57%

4%

11%

21%

30%

27%

6%

The Greens

42%

21%

33%

29%

14%

44%

2%

12%

32%

23%

21%

12%

The independents

na

na

na

na

13%

33%

2%

11%

39%

18%

15%

14%


 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

 

Total good

Total bad

Total good

Total bad

Total good

Total bad

Total good

Total bad

The Liberal Party

19%

40%

9%

62%

37%

19%

6%

69%

The Labor Party

15%

57%

37%

35%

4%

80%

23%

51%

The Greens

14%

44%

20%

31%

6%

64%

48%

9%

The independents

13%

33%

18%

24%

9%

50%

31%

17%

Respondents were more likely to think it has been a relatively bad year for all political parties. 57% think it has been a bad year for the Labor Party and 40% think it has been a bad year for the Liberal Party.

Among their own voters 48% (down 22%) think it has been a good year for the Greens , 37% (down 8%) the Liberal Party and 37% (up 2%) the Labor Party.

 

Compared to last year’s results, all parties figures have declined – The Greens net +4% to -30%, Liberals from net -3% to -21% and Labor from net -37% to -42%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 3, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,799respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

7/11/12

2 weeks ago

19/11/12

Last week

26/11/12

This week

3/12/12

Liberal

43%

43%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

46%

46%

47%

47%

Labor

38.0%

37%

36%

36%

37%

Greens

11.8%

9%

10%

10%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

8%

7%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

53%

53%

53%

53%

Labor

50.1%

47%

47%

47%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 22, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,888 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

24/9/12

2 weeks ago

8/10/12

Last week

15/10/12

This week

22/10/12

Liberal

45%

44%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

47%

47%

47%

Labor

38.0%

35%

37%

36%

36%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

7%

8%

7%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

53%

53%

53%

Labor

50.1%

45%

47%

47%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 8, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size =  2,100 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

10/09/2012

2 weeks ago 24/09/2012

Last week 01/10/2012

This week

Liberal

44%

45%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

48%

47%

47%

Labor

38.0%

34%

35%

36%

37%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

7%

7%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 10/09/2012

2 weeks ago 24/09/2012

Last week

01/10/2012

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

55%

53%

53%

Labor

50.1%

45%

45%

47%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 24, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1992 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

27/08/12

2 weeks ago

10/9/2012

Last week 17/09/2012

This week

Liberal

46%

44%

45%

45%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

47%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

32%

34%

34%

35%

Greens

11.8%

10%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 27/08/12

2 weeks ago

10/9/2012

This week

17/09/2012

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

55%

55%

55%

Labor

50.1%

44%

45%

45%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 3, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,871 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

6/8/12

2 weeks ago

20/8/12

Last week

27/8/12

This week

3/9/12

Liberal

46%

46%

46%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

48%

Labor

38.0%

33%

32%

32%

34%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

57%

56%

55%

Labor

50.1%

44%

43%

44%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 12, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,830 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

14/5/12

2 weeks ago

28/5/12

Last week

4/6/12

This week

12/6/12

Liberal

47%

47%

47%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

50%

50%

50%

49%

Labor

38.0%

30%

33%

33%

32%

Greens

11.8%

11%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

7%

7%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

57%

57%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

43%

43%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

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