Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 18, 2010

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?  

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?  

*1915 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last report

21 Dec 09

Liberal 35%    
National 3%    
Total Lib/Nat 38% 44% +1%
Labor 45% 56% -1%
Greens 8%    
Family First 2%    
Other/Independent 7%    

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results. 

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s polling data collected on the weeks of the 15 – 20 December 2009 and the 12 – 18 January 2010.   Comments »

Federal Politics – Voting Intention

Dec 14, 2009

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?

*1875 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last week
Liberal 32%
National 3%
Total Lib/Nat 35% 42%
Labor 46% 58%
Greens 10%
Family First 2%
Other/Independent 7%

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results.

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s data.

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Approval of the Opposition Leader

Dec 14, 2009

Q. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

Malcolm Turnbull Tony Abbott
12 Jan 09 9 Feb 09 30 Mar 09 18 May 09 29 Jun 09 10 Aug 09 28 Sept 09 9 Nov 09 30 Nov 09 14 Dec 09
Strongly approve 4% 3% 3% 2% 4% 2% 3% 3% 2% 7%
Approve 37% 29% 25% 28% 20% 20% 24% 26% 23% 27%
Disapprove 21% 26% 31% 28% 31% 30% 35% 30% 33% 18%
Strongly disapprove 9% 17% 17% 21% 26% 28% 18% 20% 22% 18%
Don’t know 29% 24% 24% 21% 19% 20% 21% 20% 19% 31%
Total approve 41% 32% 28% 30% 24% 22% 27% 29% 25% 34%
Total disapprove 30% 43% 48% 49% 57% 58% 53% 50% 55% 36%

34% of respondents approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader, 36% disapprove and 31% don’t know.

Perception followed party lines – Coalition voters were more likely to approve of the job Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader (65%) while Labor voters were more likely to disapprove (55%).   15% of Coalition voters disapprove of the job Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader.

Abbott’s approval rating is nine percentage points higher than the score Turnbull received right before he was replaced as Opposition Leader.    However, Turnbull’s approval rating when he took on the leadership role in September 2009 was 36% and his disapproval rating was 30%.  This is a slightly better result than that scored by Abbott after his succession to the leadership position.

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Federal Politics – Voting Intention

Dec 7, 2009

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?

*1922 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last week
Liberal 30%
National 4%
Total Lib/Nat 34% 42%
Labor 46% 58%
Greens 9%
Family First 3%
Other/Independent 8%

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results.

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s data.

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Liberal Leadership

Dec 7, 2009

Q. Does the election of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party make you more likely or less likely to vote Liberal?

Total Labor Coalition Greens
More likely 21% 12% 42% 5%
Less likely 33% 44% 15% 62%
Much more likely 9% 2% 24% 2%
A little more likely 12% 10% 18% 3%
A little less likely 10% 7% 12% 11%
Much less likely 23% 37% 3% 51%
Makes no difference 39% 42% 39% 32%
Don’t know 7% 2% 3% 1%

39% of people think the election of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party makes no difference to whether or not they will vote Liberal, 33% think it will make them less likely and 21% more likely to vote Liberal.

42% of Coalition voters think the election of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party will make them more likely to vote Liberal, 15% think that it will make them less likely and 39% think it will make no difference.  44% of Labor voters and 62% of Green voters think it will make them less likely to vote Liberal.

Females were more likely than males to indicate that the election of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party will make no difference to their vote (43% v 35%).

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Attributes to Describe the Opposition Leader

Dec 7, 2009

Q.  Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?

Abbott

7 Dec 09

Turnbull

29 June 09

Rudd

7 Dec 09

Abbott lead over Turnbull Abbott lead over Rudd
Intelligent 71% 75% 82% -4% -11%
Hard-working 69% 68% 77% +1% -8%
A capable leader 46% 39% 69% +7% -23%
Demanding 53% 62% 60% -9% -7%
Arrogant 53% 69% 49% -16% +4%
Out of touch with ordinary people 53% 65% 45% -12% +8%
Understands the problems facing Australia 46% 48% 59% -2% -13%
Visionary 34% 26% 48% +8% -14%
Superficial 42% 51% 41% -9% +1%
Good in a crisis 39% 32% 58% +7% -19%
Narrow-minded 52% 51% 36% +1% +16%
Down to earth 46% 25% 55% +21% -9%
Too inflexible 45% 47% 38% -2% +7%
Complacent 31% 38% 38% -7% -7%
More honest than most politicians 31% 16% 49% +15% -18%
Trustworthy 36% * 51% * -15%

*Not asked in June 2009 poll

When it comes to rating Abbott, people think he is intelligent (71%) and hard-working (69%), yet demanding (53%), arrogant (53%) and out of touch with ordinary people (53%).

Abbott scores higher than his predecessor Turnbull in terms of qualities such as being down to earth (+21%), more honest than most politicians (+15%), visionary (+8%), capable leader (+7%) and good in a crisis (+7%).

Males were slightly more likely than females to think that Abbott is superficial (46% v 39%), honest (34% v 28%), visionary (37% v 32%) and down to earth (48% v 43%).

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Malcolm Turnbull’s Future Political Career

Dec 7, 2009

Q. Do you think Malcolm Turnbull should now resign from Parliament, stay in parliament on the backbench until the next election or challenge for the leadership again before the next election?

%
Resign 18%
Stay on backbench 45%
Challenge again 15%
Don’t know 23%

Just under half (45%) think that Malcolm Turnbull should stay in parliament on the backbench until the next election, 18% think he should resign and 15% think Turnbull should challenge for the leadership again before the next election.

Coalition voters were more likely to think that Turnbull should stay in parliament on the backbench (62%), while Green (28%) and Labor (18%) voters were more likely to think Turnbull should challenge again for the leadership.

Males were more likely to think Turnbull should resign (20%) while females were more likely to indicate that they don’t know what Turnbull should do (29%).

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Political Party Positions on the ETS

Dec 7, 2009

Q. Whose position on the ETS and tackling climate change do you most agree with?

%
Kevin Rudd and Labor 24%
Tony Abbott and the Coalition 27%
Bob Brown and Greens 17%
Don’t know 32%

When it comes to the position that various parties have on the ETS and tackling climate change, 27% of people agree with the position of Tony Abbott and the Coalition, 24% agree with Kevin Rudd and Labor and 17% agree with Bob Brown and the Greens.  32% of people don’t know which position they agree with regarding an ETS and tackling climate change.

The results followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to agree with Labor’s position (49%), Coalition voters were more likely to agree with the Coalition (67%) and Green voters were more likely to agree with the Green’s position (80%).   30% of Labor voters, 21% of Coalition voters and 9% of Green voters don’t know which position they agree with most.

Males were more likely to agree with the position of Abbott and the Coalition (31%), while females were more likely to indicate that they don’t know (36%).

People aged 55 years and over were more likely to agree with Abbott and the Coalition regarding climate change and an ETS (42%).

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