Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 28, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,898 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 44% 46% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 47% 47% 48% 48%
Labor 38.0% 34% 35% 34% 34%
Greens 11.8% 10% 10% 10% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6% 9% 8% 7% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 55% 54% 55% 54%
Labor 50.1% 45% 46% 44% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 21, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,902 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 45% 43% 44% 46%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 48% 46% 47% 48%
Labor 38.0% 32% 35% 35% 34%
Greens 11.8% 11% 9% 10% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 9% 8% 7%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 55% 54% 54% 55%
Labor 50.1% 45% 46% 46% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Exporting Uranium to India

Nov 21, 2011

Q. Do you support or oppose the proposal for Australia to export uranium to India?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 30% 31% 35% 17%
Total oppose 45% 40% 47% 66%
Strongly support 7% 6% 10% 1%
Support 23% 25% 25% 16%
Oppose 24% 25% 25% 30%
Strongly oppose 21% 15% 22% 36%
Don’t know 25% 28% 17% 17%

30% support the proposal for Australia to export uranium to India and 45% oppose – 25% had no opinion. All voter groups were more likely to oppose the sale of uranium to India.

All age groups were more likely to oppose the proposal – and men were split 43% support to 41% oppose, compared to women 18% support/49% oppose.

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Nuclear Power Plants

Nov 21, 2011

Q. Do you support or oppose Australia developing nuclear power plants for the generation of electricity?

27 Jan 2009 20 Dec 2010 21 Mar 2011 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 43% 43% 35% 39% 31% 50% 27%
Total oppose 35% 37% 53% 45% 53% 37% 68%
Strongly support 14% 16% 12% 13% 7% 20% 9%
Support 29% 27% 23% 26% 24% 30% 18%
Oppose 21% 21% 21% 22% 27% 18% 25%
Strongly oppose 14% 16% 32% 23% 26% 19% 43%
Don’t know 22% 19% 13% 16% 16% 13% 6%

45% oppose Australia developing nuclear power plants for the generation of electricity and 39% support. This is a considerable shift in opinion since this question was last asked in March following the problems with the nuclear power plants in Japan after the tsunami. However, there remains net opposition to nuclear power plants – compared to net support in surveys conducted in 2009 and 2010.

Those that intend to vote Lib/Nat were more likely to support (50%) than oppose (37%) Australia developing nuclear power plants for the generation of electricity.

There was majority opposition from Labor (53% oppose or strongly oppose) and the Greens (68% oppose or strongly oppose).

There is a considerable difference between the attitudes of males and females towards nuclear power plants – 56% of males, compared to just 24% of females support or strongly support Australia developing nuclear power plants for the generation of electricity.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 14, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,898 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 45% 44% 43% 44%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 48% 47% 46% 47%
Labor 38.0% 33% 34% 35% 35%
Greens 11.8% 11% 10% 9% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 9% 9% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 55% 55% 54% 54%
Labor 50.1% 45% 45% 46% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Approval of Tony Abbott

Nov 14, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18 Jan

2010

5 Jul

2010

20 Dec 2010 14 Mar 14 June 12 Sept 17 Oct 14 Nov
Total approve 37% 37% 39% 38% 38% 39% 40% 36%
Total disapprove 37% 47% 39% 47% 48% 50% 51% 52%
Strongly approve 5% 8% 9% 7% 6% 8% 8% 6%
Approve 32% 29% 30% 31% 32% 31% 32% 30%
Disapprove 20% 23% 21% 24% 25% 23% 23% 26%
Strongly disapprove 17% 24% 18% 23% 23% 27% 28% 26%
Don’t know 26% 16% 22% 16% 15% 11% 9% 12%

Tony Abbott’s approval rating has fallen over the last month. 36% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 52% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -11 to -16 over the last 4 weeks. This is the lowest rating recorded for Tony Abbott since he became opposition leader.

73% (down 5%) of Coalition voters approve and 19% (up 3%) disapprove.

By gender – men 39% approve/52% disapprove, women 33% approve/51% disapprove.

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Better Prime Minister

Nov 14, 2011

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 2010 14 Mar 14 June 12 Sept 17 Oct 14 Nov Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Julia Gillard 53% 44% 41% 36% 38% 41% 83% 7% 80%
Tony Abbott 26% 33% 36% 40% 39% 36% 5% 73% 4%
Don’t know 21% 23% 24% 24% 23% 24% 12% 20% 17%

41% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a net improvement for Julia Gillard of 6% on last month’s figures (from -1% to +5%). This is the best result for Julia Gillard since June.

Men are evenly split 39%/39% and women favour Julia Gillard 42%/33%.

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Australia’s Future

Nov 14, 2011

Q. To which region do you think Australia’s future is most closely tied?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Europe 7% 6% 7% 5%
Asia 74% 81% 76% 82%
North America 9% 6% 10% 10%
Don’t know 10% 6% 8% 4%

74% think Australia’s future is most closely tied to Asia – only 9% think it is tied to North America and 7% Europe.

Views are similar across major voter groups. However, younger respondents were a little less likely to agree – 68% of those aged under 35 think Australia’s future is most closely tied to Asia compared to 81% of those aged 55+.

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