2012 Outlook – Political Parties

Dec 19, 2011

Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?

Total good

Dec 10

Total bad

Dec10

Total good Total bad Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
The Liberal Party 35% 18% 36% 24% 8% 28% 28% 17% 7% 12%
The Labor Party 19% 40% 16% 49% 3% 13% 23% 29% 20% 11%
The Greens 22% 29% 17% 37% 2% 15% 32% 20% 17% 13%

Respondents expect that 2012 is likely to be a relatively good year for the Liberal Party (36% good/24% bad) and a bad year for the Labor Party (16%/49%) and the Greens (17%/37%).

Among their own voters, 67% expect the Liberals to have a good year, 38% expect Labor to have a good year and 67% expect the Greens to have a good year.

Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all political parties – The Liberal Party has dropped form net +17% to net +12%, the Labor Party from -21% to -33% and the Greens from -7% to -20%.

Comparing these results with last week’s questions about 2011, respondents expect the Liberal Party to have a better year (net +12% next year this year compared to net -3% this year), the Labor Party to have a similar year (-33% next year, -37% this year) and the Greens to have a much worse year (-20% next year, +4% this year).

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Leaders in 12 Months

Dec 19, 2011

Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 26% 49% 12% 37%
No 55% 31% 76% 45%
Don’t know 19% 21% 12% 18%

Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 41% 26% 64% 29%
No 34% 53% 16% 53%
Don’t know 25% 21% 20% 18%

Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).

49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.

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Approval of Tony Abbott

Dec 12, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18 Jan

2010

5 Jul

2010

20 Dec 2010 14 Mar 14 June 12 Sept 17 Oct 14 Nov 12 Dec
Total approve 37% 37% 39% 38% 38% 39% 40% 36% 32%
Total disapprove 37% 47% 39% 47% 48% 50% 51% 52% 53%
Strongly approve 5% 8% 9% 7% 6% 8% 8% 6% 6%
Approve 32% 29% 30% 31% 32% 31% 32% 30% 26%
Disapprove 20% 23% 21% 24% 25% 23% 23% 26% 25%
Strongly disapprove 17% 24% 18% 23% 23% 27% 28% 26% 28%
Don’t know 26% 16% 22% 16% 15% 11% 9% 12% 14%

Tony Abbott’s approval rating has fallen again over the last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -16 to -21 over the last 4 weeks. This is the lowest rating recorded for Tony Abbott since he became opposition leader.

65% (down 8%) of Coalition voters approve and 22% (up 3%) disapprove.

By gender – men 36% approve/52% disapprove, women 29% approve/55% disapprove.

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The Past Year – Political Parties

Dec 12, 2011

Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?

Total good

(Dec 10)

Total bad

(Dec 10)

Total good Total bad Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
The Greens 42% 21% 33% 29% 7% 26% 28% 15% 14% 11%
The Liberal Party 33% 27% 27% 30% 4% 23% 34% 22% 8% 9%
The Labor Party 21% 47% 16% 53% 2% 14% 22% 33% 21% 8%

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good Total bad Total good Total bad Total good Total bad Total good Total bad
The Greens 33% 29% 41% 16% 23% 45% 70% 3%
The Liberal Party 27% 30% 13% 45% 45% 16% 17% 45%
The Labor Party 16% 53% 35% 32% 7% 73% 11% 48%

Respondents were more likely to think it has been a good year for the Greens (33%) than the Liberal Party (27%) or the Labor Party (16%).

Among their own voters 70% think it has been a good year for the Greens, 45% the Liberal Party and 35% the Labor Party.

Compared to last year’s results, all parties figures have declined – The Greens net +21% to +4%, Liberals from net +6% to -3% and Labor from net -26% to -37%.

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