NSW State Voting Intention – Demographic Analysis

Feb 18, 2011
First preference /leaning to Total Men Women Sydney Other NSW 18-34 35-54 55+
Sample 1248 625 623 799 449 404 491 353
Labor 27% 27% 27% 26% 30% 31% 29% 20%
Liberal/National 51% 49% 53% 54% 46% 46% 48% 59%
Greens 12% 12% 12% 13% 9% 15% 12% 8%
Independent/Other 11% 13% 9% 7% 15% 7% 11% 13%
2PP
Labor 41% 42% 40% 39% 44% 46% 43% 32%
Liberal/National 59% 58% 60% 61% 56% 54% 57% 68%

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 27, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

1910 sample size

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week


Liberal 36% 41% 41% 42% 40%
National 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 39% 44% 44% 45% 43%
Labor 43% 38% 39% 40% 42%
Greens 9% 11% 10% 9% 9%
Other/Independent 9% 7% 7% 6% 6%


2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week


Total Lib/Nat 46% 50% 50% 50% 49%
Labor 54% 50% 50% 50% 51%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

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Population by 2050

Jul 5, 2010

Q. It has been estimated that Australia will have a population of 36 million by 2050. Do you think this will be good or bad for Australia?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good 16% 17% 18% 16%
Total bad 55% 50% 63% 58%
Very good 3% 4% 3% 3%
Good 13% 13% 15% 13%
Neither good nor bad 21% 26% 15% 22%
Bad 32% 32% 35% 36%
Very bad 23% 18% 28% 22%
Don’t know 8% 7% 5% 4%

55% believe that having a population of 36 million by 2050 will be bad for Australia – 16% think it will be good for Australia.

The concern about this level of population is fairly similar across voter groups – although Liberal/National voters (63%) are more likely to think it is bad than Labor voters (50%). Comments »

Population Growth

Jul 5, 2010

Q. On average, Australia’s population increases by about 300,000 per year (less than 2%). Do you think this is too high, too low or about right?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Too high 48% 44% 52% 59%
Too low 4% 3% 6% 7%
About right 35% 39% 35% 31%
Don’t know 12% 13% 6% 3%

Nearly half (48%) believe that the current rate of population growth is too high and only 4% think it is too low – 35% think it is about right.

Labor voters are split (44% too high compared to 42% about right or too low), but a majority of Liberal/National voters (52%) and Greens voters (59%) think it is too high.

Paid Parental Leave

Jun 28, 2010

Q. The Federal Government has recently passed legislation for paid parental leave which provides parents with 18 weeks of paid leave at the minimum wage of $543 a week. Do you approve or disapprove of this decision?

Total approve 55%
Total disapprove 33%
Strongly approve 21%
Approve 34%
Disapprove 18%
Strongly disapprove 15%
Don’t know 11%

55% approved the Government’s paid parental leave scheme and 33% dispproved. Support was weaker among Liberal/National voters – 48% approve/43% disapprove. Labor voters split 64%/29% and Greens 68%/23%.

Younger respondent were much more supportive than older respondents – among those aged under 35, 75% approved and 9% disapproved.

41% of those aged 55+ approved and 53% disapproved. Women (58%/32%) were a little more supportive than men (53%/35%). Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 15, 2010

Federal politics – voting intention

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?

1,850 sample size

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

Liberal 32% 41% 39% 38% 38%
National 3% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 35% 43% 41% 40% 41%
Labor 46% 38% 39% 37% 35%
Greens 10% 10% 9% 12% 14%
Family First 2% 2% 2% 3% 2%
Other/Independent 7% 7% 8% 7% 8
2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

Total Lib/Nat 42% 50% 49% 48% 49%
Labor 58% 50% 51% 52% 51%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.
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Party Identification

Mar 22, 2010

Q. Now regardless of your present view of things, which federal party do you normally consider yourself closest to?

  %
Labor 40%
Liberal 32%
National 3%
Greens 6%
Democrats 2%
Family First 2%
Independent or other party 3%
Don’t know 11%

 40% of those surveyed indicated the party they normally consider themselves closest to is Labor, 35% indicated Liberal/National, 6% Greens and 11% don’t know.  Comments »

Federal Politics – Voting Intention

Nov 30, 2009

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?

*1979 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last week
Liberal 31%
National 4%
Total Lib/Nat 35% 42% -3%
Labor 47% 58% +3%
Greens 8%
Family First 3%
Other/Independent 7%

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results.

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s data.

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