Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 19, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,896 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 46% 44% 44% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 48% 47% 48% 47%
Labor 38.0% 34% 34% 34% 35%
Greens 11.8% 10% 10% 10% 9%
Other/Independent 6.6% 7% 9% 9% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 55% 54% 55% 54%
Labor 50.1% 45% 46% 45% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Leaders in 12 Months

Dec 19, 2011

Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 26% 49% 12% 37%
No 55% 31% 76% 45%
Don’t know 19% 21% 12% 18%

Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 41% 26% 64% 29%
No 34% 53% 16% 53%
Don’t know 25% 21% 20% 18%

Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).

49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.

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Performance of Australian Economy

Dec 19, 2011

Q. How do you think the Australian economy is performing in comparison to other developed countries?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total better 73% 84% 72% 80%
Total worse 7% 3% 8% 1%
A lot better 27% 44% 19% 32%
A little better 46% 40% 53% 48%
About the same 16% 13% 16% 12%
A little worse 5% 2% 5% 1%
A lot worse 2% 1% 3%
Don’t know 4% 1% 3% 6%

If ‘a lot better’ or ‘a little better’ –

Q. How much credit do the following deserve for the current performance of Australia’s economy?

A lot Some A little None Don’t know
The Federal Labor Government 18% 31% 23% 21% 6%
The previous Coalition Government 21% 31% 26% 15% 6%
The booming resources sector 47% 31% 12% 3% 7%
The Reserve Bank 6% 42% 29% 13% 9%

73% think that the Australian economy is performing better than other developed countries and only 7% think it is performing worse.

Respondents give most credit for the performance of the economy to the booming resources sector (78% a lot or some credit). They give similar credit to the Labor Government (49%) and the previous Coalition Government (52%).

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Federal Election

Dec 19, 2011

Q. Do you expect that an early Federal election will be held in 2012?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 32% 24% 42% 26%
No 42% 55% 37% 50%
Don’t know 26% 21% 21% 23%

Respondents were more likely to think there will not be a Federal election next year – 32% expect there will be an election and 42% think there will not.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 12, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,921 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 45% 44% 44%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 47% 48% 47% 48%
Labor 38.0% 35% 34% 34% 34%
Greens 11.8% 10% 11% 10% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 8% 9% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 54% 54% 55%
Labor 50.1% 46% 46% 46% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 5, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,922 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 43% 46% 45% 44%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 46% 48% 48% 47%
Labor 38.0% 35% 34% 34% 34%
Greens 11.8% 9% 10% 11% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 9% 7% 8% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 55% 54% 54%
Labor 50.1% 46% 45% 46% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal Election

Dec 5, 2011

Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?

5 Sept 11 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Should run to 2013 40% 47% 89% 20% 73%
Should hold election now 48% 41% 7% 74% 16%
Don’t know 12% 12% 4% 6% 11%

47% think that the Labor Government should be allowed to run its full term trough to 2013 and 41% think a new election should be held. This is almost exactly the reverse of the results when this question was previously asked in September when 48% thought an election should be held now and 40% thought the Government should run its full term.

Support for the Government to run its full term has increased among Labor voters (from 82% to 89%) and Liberal/National voters (11% to 20%) but dropped from 80% to 73% for Greens voters.

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Party trust to handle important election issues

Dec 5, 2011

Q. And which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

Labor Liberal Greens Don’t know
Management of the economy 27% 45% 2% 25%
Ensuring a quality education for all children 34% 36% 5% 25%
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system 31% 34% 6% 29%
Protecting the environment 16% 23% 37% 24%
A fair industrial relations system 38% 34% 5% 23%
Political leadership 23% 40% 5% 33%
Addressing climate change 19% 25% 31% 25%
Controlling interest rates 24% 42% 2% 32%
Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries 32% 35% 4% 29%
Ensuring a quality water supply 18% 30% 24% 29%
Housing affordability 23% 33% 5% 38%
Ensuring a fair taxation system 28% 37% 4% 31%
Security and the war on terrorism 21% 40% 3% 35%
Treatment of asylum seekers 17% 36% 12% 35%
Managing population growth 18% 35% 9% 39%

Labor does not have a substantial lead over the Liberal Party on any item measured.  The 9% lead it had in June on “a fair industrial relations system” has been reduced to 4%. There is also little difference between Labor and the Liberals for ensuring a quality education for all children, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries.

The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership and security and the war on terrorism.

Overall, there has been a slight weakening of Labor’s position since June.

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