Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 28, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,898 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 44% 46% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 47% 47% 48% 48%
Labor 38.0% 34% 35% 34% 34%
Greens 11.8% 10% 10% 10% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6% 9% 8% 7% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 55% 54% 55% 54%
Labor 50.1% 45% 46% 44% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 21, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,902 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 45% 43% 44% 46%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 48% 46% 47% 48%
Labor 38.0% 32% 35% 35% 34%
Greens 11.8% 11% 9% 10% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 9% 8% 7%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 55% 54% 54% 55%
Labor 50.1% 45% 46% 46% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Australian troops in Afghanistan

Nov 21, 2011

Q.  Thinking about the Australian troops in Afghanistan, do you think Australia should –

25 Oct 2010 21 Mar 2011 29 Aug 2011 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Increase the number of troops in Afghanistan 10% 5% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3%
Keep the same number of troops in Afghanistan 30% 30% 26% 22% 21% 29% 11%
Withdraw our troops from Afghanistan 47% 56% 64% 64% 66% 57% 76%
Don’t know 14% 9% 7% 11% 10% 10% 10%

64% (no change) think Australia should withdraw our troops from Afghanistan, 22% (down 4%) think we should maintain troop numbers and 3% (down 1%) think we should increase them.

Since October last year, support for withdrawal of Australian troops has increased from 47% to 64%. There was majority support for withdrawal by all voting groups – 57% of Lib/Nat voters, 66% Labor and 76% Greens. Support for withdrawal was also similar across age groups but women were more likely than men to support withdrawal of troops (72% to 55%).

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Mining Tax

Nov 21, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed mining tax (called the Minerals Resource Rent Tax) on large profits of mining companies?

12 Jul 2010 5 Sep 2011 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total approve 50% 46% 51% 74% 32% 85%
Total disapprove 28% 34% 33% 13% 55% 7%
Strongly approve 13% 18% 18% 32% 5% 51%
Approve 37% 28% 33% 42% 27% 34%
Disapprove 18% 18% 20% 11% 30% 7%
Strongly disapprove 10% 16% 13% 2% 25%
Don’t know 22% 19% 15% 12% 12% 9%

51% approve the Government’s proposed mining tax and 33% disapprove. This represents a strengthening in support since this question was asked in September (from net +12% to net +18%).

Labor voters (74%) and Greens voters (85%) strongly support the tax – but Liberal/National voters disapprove 55% to 32%.

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Carbon Tax

Nov 21, 2011

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which, from July 2012, will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

7 March 18 April 23 May 14 June 18 July 1 Aug 19 Sep 17 Oct Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 35% 39% 41% 38% 39% 39% 37% 39% 38% 66% 13% 86%
Total oppose 48% 49% 44% 49% 49% 51% 52% 53% 53% 26% 80% 11%
Strongly support 9% 13% 14% 13% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 28% 1% 48%
Support 26% 26% 27% 25% 24% 24% 23% 25% 24% 38% 12% 38%
Oppose 19% 15% 15% 19% 16% 19% 17% 17% 17% 11% 22% 5%
Strongly oppose 29% 34% 29% 30% 33% 32% 35% 36% 36% 15% 58% 6%
Don’t know 18% 12% 15% 13% 12% 10% 12% 9% 10% 9% 7% 2%

Views on the carbon pricing scheme have changed very little since June and there has been no significant change since the legislation was passed. 38% support the scheme (down 1% since October) and 53% oppose (no change).

The only demographic group to support the scheme were aged under 35’s – 45% support/40% oppose. Among those aged 55+, 37% support and 59% oppose.

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Liberal Party and WorkChoices

Nov 21, 2011

Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?

31 May 10 12 July 10 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total likely 58% 56% 51% 75% 33% 78%
Total unlikely 21% 24% 27% 13% 44% 11%
Very likely 28% 26% 22% 45% 4% 41%
Quite likely 30% 30% 29% 30% 29% 37%
Not very likely 18% 18% 19% 9% 31% 8%
Not at all likely 3% 6% 8% 4% 13% 3%
Don’t know 20% 20% 22% 11% 23% 11%

Respondents were less likely to think that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices than when a similar question was asked last year. 51% (down 5%) think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election and 27% (up 3%) think it is unlikely.

75% of Labor voters and 78% of Greens voters think it is likely, while Liberal/National voters are split 33% likely to 44% unlikely.

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Concern about Liberals Bringing Back WorkChoices

Nov 21, 2011

Q. If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?

31 May 10 12 July 10 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Very concerned 28% 29% 26% 53% 4% 54%
Quite concerned 17% 19% 15% 22% 11% 15%
A little concerned 20% 16% 20% 12% 24% 21%
Not concerned 24% 25% 27% 6% 52% 6%
Don’t know 11% 11% 11% 7% 9% 4%

Respondents were also less concerned about the re-introduction of WorkChoices than last year. 41% (down 7%) would be quite or very concerned if WorkChoices or similar laws were re-introduced and 47% (up 6%) were only a little or not concerned.

75% of Labor voters and 69% of Greens voters would be concerned. 76% of Liberal/National voters would be a little/not concerned and 15% concerned. Those most concerned were aged 25-34 (47%) and aged 45-54 (48%).

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Exporting Uranium to India

Nov 21, 2011

Q. Do you support or oppose the proposal for Australia to export uranium to India?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 30% 31% 35% 17%
Total oppose 45% 40% 47% 66%
Strongly support 7% 6% 10% 1%
Support 23% 25% 25% 16%
Oppose 24% 25% 25% 30%
Strongly oppose 21% 15% 22% 36%
Don’t know 25% 28% 17% 17%

30% support the proposal for Australia to export uranium to India and 45% oppose – 25% had no opinion. All voter groups were more likely to oppose the sale of uranium to India.

All age groups were more likely to oppose the proposal – and men were split 43% support to 41% oppose, compared to women 18% support/49% oppose.

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