Federal politics – voting intention

May 28, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,884 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

30/4/12

2 weeks ago

14/5/12

Last week

21/5/12

This week

28/5/12

Liberal

46%

47%

46%

47%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

50%

50%

49%

50%

Labor

38.0%

31%

30%

33%

33%

Greens

11.8%

11%

11%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

8%

7

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

57%

57%

56%

57%

Labor

50.1%

43%

43%

44%

43%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

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Rating of Prime Minister during Barack Obama Visit

Nov 28, 2011

Q. How would you rate the performance of the Prime Minister Julia Gillard during the recent visit by US President Barack Obama?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good 38% 76% 16% 51%
Total poor 23% 2% 42% 10%
Very good 12% 36% 2% 6%
Good 26% 40% 14% 45%
Average 31% 18% 37% 32%
Poor 8% 15% 5%
Very poor 15% 2% 27% 5%
Don’t know 7% 3% 5% 7%

Overall, the Prime Minister’s performance during the recent visit by US President Barack Obama was rated positively.

38% rated her performance during the recent visit by US President Barack Obama as good and 23% rated it poor. 31% thought it was average.

76% of Labor voters and 51% of Greens voters rated it good, while 42% of Liberal/National voters rated it poor and 37% rated it as average.

43% of women rated her performance goods compared to 33% of men.

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Rating of Opposition Leader during Barack Obama Visit

Nov 28, 2011

Q. How would you rate the performance of the Opposition Leader Tony Abbott during recent visit by US President Barack Obama?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good 18% 9% 31% 2%
Total poor 30% 49% 9% 54%
Very good 4% 2% 7%
Good 14% 7% 24% 2%
Average 37% 32% 46% 26%
Poor 14% 17% 7% 24%
Very poor 16% 32% 2% 30%
Don’t know 15% 10% 13% 17%

Overall, the Opposition Leader’s performance during the recent visit by US President Barack Obama was rated negatively.

18% rated his performance during the recent visit by US President Barack Obama as good and 30% rated it poor. 37% thought it was average.

Liberal/National voters were more likely to rate it as average (46%) – only 31% rated it good.

There was little difference between the ratings of men and women.

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Groups that Benefit from Mining Boom

Nov 28, 2011

Q. How much do the following groups benefit from the current boom in Australia’s mineral exports?

Benefit a lot Some benefit A little benefit No benefit Don’t know
Mining company executives 68% 10% 5% 3% 14%
Mining company shareholders 48% 28% 7% 3% 14%
Foreign companies 42% 25% 8% 3% 23%
Federal government 37% 35% 10% 2% 15%
State governments 31% 38% 12% 2% 16%
Regional communities 12% 30% 29% 10% 17%
All Australians 11% 29% 32% 13% 16%

The main beneficiaries of the current boom in Australia’s mineral exports were thought to be mining company executives (68% benefit a lot), mining company shareholders (48%) and foreign companies (42%). Only 11% thought that all Australians benefit a lot and 12% thought regional communities benefit a lot.

Views were mostly similar across demographics.

Labor voters were a little more likely to think that there was a lot of benefit to all Australians (18%) and mining company shareholders (53%).

Liberal/National voters were a little more likely to think that there was a lot of benefit to State Governments (37%) and the Federal Government (46%).

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Groups that Should Benefit from Mining Boom

Nov 28, 2011

Q. And should the following groups receive more or less benefit from the current boom in minerals exports or is the current benefit they receive about right?

Should benefit more Should benefit less Current benefit about right Don’t know
All Australians 68% 1% 15% 16%
Regional communities 58% 6% 19% 17%
State governments 30% 17% 32% 20%
Federal government 27% 23% 30% 20%
Mining company shareholders 12% 28% 41% 18%
Foreign companies 4% 56% 18% 22%
Mining company executives 4% 57% 21% 18%

A majority of respondents think there should be more benefits to all Australians (68%) and regional communities (58%).  A majority also believe there should be less benefit to mining company executives (57%) and foreign companies (56%).

75% of Labor voters, 65% of Liberal/National voters and 84% of Greens voters think all Australians should benefit more.

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Return to Surplus

Nov 28, 2011

Q. Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?

April 4 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Return to surplus by 2012/13, cut services, raise taxes 14% 13% 13% 19% 7%
Delay return to surplus, maintain services, invest in infrastructure 69% 71% 76% 68% 82%
Don’t know 17% 15% 11% 13% 11%

13% support the return to surplus by 2012/13 if it means cutting services and raising taxes and 69% think the Government should delay the return to surplus and maintain services and investment. Opinions are unchanged since this question was asked in April.

No more than 19% of any demographic or voter group supported the return to surplus by 2012/13.

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Measures Government should take to Return to Surplus

Nov 28, 2011

Q. In order to meet their commitment to return to surplus in 2012-13, which measures should the Government take?

April 4 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Increase taxes for big corporations 63% 72% 81% 65% 86%
Reduce tax breaks for high income earners 51% 59% 63% 57% 64%
Reduce defence spending 32% 37% 32% 37% 67%
Cut “middle class welfare” such as the Baby Bonus, first home buyers grant and Family Tax Benefit payments 36% 35% 31% 40% 29%
Cut spending on unemployment and disability benefits 21% 21% 15% 28% 13%
It does not need to return to surplus so quickly 38% 58% 65% 56% 61%

The most favoured measures for returning the budget to surplus were increasing taxes for big corporations (72%) and reducing tax breaks for high-income earners (59%).

Labor voters were more likely to support increasing taxes for big corporations (81%).

Liberal/National voters were more likely to support cutting spending on unemployment and welfare benefits (28%), and cutting “middle class welfare” (40%).

Since this question was last asked in April, support has increased for increasing taxes for big corporations (+9%) and reducing tax breaks for high income earners (+8%).

However, the major change since April has been a substantial increase in support for the position that the Government does not need to return to surplus so quickly – up 20% to 58%. This position is supported by 65% of Labor voters and 56% of Liberal/National voters.

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Liberal Party and WorkChoices

Nov 21, 2011

Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?

31 May 10 12 July 10 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total likely 58% 56% 51% 75% 33% 78%
Total unlikely 21% 24% 27% 13% 44% 11%
Very likely 28% 26% 22% 45% 4% 41%
Quite likely 30% 30% 29% 30% 29% 37%
Not very likely 18% 18% 19% 9% 31% 8%
Not at all likely 3% 6% 8% 4% 13% 3%
Don’t know 20% 20% 22% 11% 23% 11%

Respondents were less likely to think that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices than when a similar question was asked last year. 51% (down 5%) think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election and 27% (up 3%) think it is unlikely.

75% of Labor voters and 78% of Greens voters think it is likely, while Liberal/National voters are split 33% likely to 44% unlikely.

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